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Asian Angle | Why US-China competition will shape Asean’s vision for the next 20 years

  • The Asean Community Vision 2045 must be bolder than past strategies to ensure long-term peace, stability and prosperity in the region
  • Strengthening the bloc’s strategic autonomy and ability to manoeuvre skilfully between the world’s two largest powers will both be crucial

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Asean leaders shake hands for a family photo before a summit session in Jakarta, Indonesia, in September last year. Photo: AP
Asean is preparing a new strategic vision to guide the bloc over the next two decades, but to succeed it must strengthen its autonomy and ability to manoeuvre skilfully between the world’s two largest powers: the United States and China.
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The Asean Community Vision (ACV) 2045, to be implemented next year, aims to be “visionary, inspirational, robust, comprehensive, inclusive, and forward-looking” and “address current and future challenges” both within and beyond the region, while reflecting the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ “spirit of unity in diversity and cooperation”.

Beyond these lofty goals, the ACV must be bolder than Asean’s past visions, blueprints and frameworks in offering exceptional strategies with credible approaches to ensuring long-term peace, stability and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region. Asean must also strengthen its strategic autonomy to withstand pressure to align with either side as US-China competition intensifies.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi shakes hands with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on the sidelines of the Asean foreign ministers’ meeting in Jakarta in July last year. Photo: AP
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi shakes hands with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on the sidelines of the Asean foreign ministers’ meeting in Jakarta in July last year. Photo: AP
Security and stability in the Indo-Pacific are increasingly being shaped by the strategic competition for influence between the US and China. It’s clear that China’s ambition to become a global superpower equal to the US, which opposes Beijing’s rise, has caused intense rivalry. This affects Southeast Asia as regional countries try to avoid being pulled too far into either power’s orbit.

As an established superpower since 1945, the US will do whatever it can to maintain its leading role in the international system and prevent other powers from challenging its supremacy. It is already revitalising alliances with like-minded countries to counter China’s rise, which it sees as a threat to the US-led liberal world order.

Meanwhile, a stronger China is no longer shy about flexing its geopolitical muscles. As its economic and military power grows, so does its confidence in becoming the next superpower. Beijing is increasingly seeking to challenge US pre-eminence through military expansion and force projection, and the promotion of its one-party, authoritarian style of government as an alternative to Western governance models.

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The success of Asean’s post-2025 vision, therefore, will depend on its ability to sustain strategic autonomy and manoeuvre agilely between the US and China.

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