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Myanmar
This Week in AsiaOpinion
Zachary Abuza
Zachary Abuza

Asian Angle | Myanmar military unlikely to win war but opposition needs global help to depose junta

  • Myanmar military’s incompetence has led to defections, a dire shortage of economic resources and territorial losses
  • The global community can help end military rule by tightening sanctions against the junta and funding the opposition

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Myanmar military Commander-in-Chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing at a parade to mark Armed Forces Day in Naypyidaw, Myanmar last year. Photo: EPA-EFE
Zachary Abuza
For two-and-a-half years, the world has largely sat by as the Myanmar military has rampaged across the country in a desperate bid to consolidate power after deposing a democratically elected government in a coup d’etat.
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The military has killed more than 4,500 people, jailed nearly 25,000, and increased aerial attacks on civilian targets, including schools, hospitals and houses of worship. A recent bombing attack at a camp for internally displaced people killed 39, mainly women and children, as they slept.

While the war in Ukraine has distracted many in the international community, much of the reason why the Myanmar conflict has received so little attention is that many states have resigned themselves to the idea the military will prevail. After all, the junta has ruled the country with an iron fist since 1962, with only a brief democratic window from 2015 to the coup in February 2021.

But the assumption of a military victory is flawed, and right now the Myanmar military is fighting a multi-front war against a determined enemy that not only maintains legitimacy and popular support, but now has a more regular supply of weapons and ammunition.

The National Unity Government (NUG) network of 300 people’s defence forces, and alliances with key ethnic resistance organisations, has put the military on their back heels. Importantly, the NUG is increasingly targeting the regime’s ability to wage war and contesting roads and logistics hubs.

But it is not just the NUG’s battlefield tenacity that is defeating the military, but the military’s own incompetence and rot.

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To start with, the military is smaller than previously thought. The 10 Light Infantry Divisions that are responsible for most combat operations, should be over 200,000 men, or roughly 200 men per battalion. In September 2022, a leaked order called for a floor of 185 men per battalion. But more than 50 per cent have under 150 men. One recently leaked field report revealed that a Light Infantry Battalion had only 132 men, of which only 70 were on the front line.

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