Opinion | Is Iran exploiting Israel-Hamas war to boost its influence in the Middle East?

Iran’s enduring hostility towards Israel is in no small part due to its close ties with the shah and Israel’s role in his oppression of the Iranian people

Israel’s expected heavy-handed response is likely to complicate Saudi Arabia’s normalisation with Israel in the near term, furthering Iran’s aims

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Iranian women walk next to a huge Palestinian flag hanging on a wall in Tehran. The Iranian government openly supported the Hamas attack on Israel and urged the Muslim community to stand by the Palestinians. Photo: EPA-EFE

Published: 2:07pm, 12 Oct 2023Updated: 4:52pm, 12 Oct 2023

There will be only one winner in the war that has broken out between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas. And it is neither Israel nor Hamas.

In an operation coined “the Al-Aqsa Flood”, Hamas, whose formal name is the Islamic Resistance Movement, fired thousands of rockets into Israel on October 7. Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad fighters infiltrated Israel by land, sea and air. Hundreds of Israelis have been killed, more than 2,000 injured, and many taken hostage.

In response, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared war on Hamas and launched air strikes in Gaza. In the first day of reprisals, close to 400 Palestinians were killed, according to the Palestinian health ministry.

In the weeks ahead, the Israeli military will surely retaliate and kill hundreds more Palestinian militants and civilians. As an analyst of Middle East politics and security, I believe that thousands on both sides will suffer. But when the smoke settles, only one country’s interests will have been served: Iran’s.

An Iranian woman walks next to an anti-Israel billboard in Tehran. Since the early 1980s, Iran has maintained support for anti-Israeli militant groups and operations. Photo: EPA-EFE

Already, some analysts are suggesting that Tehran’s fingerprints can be seen on the surprise attack on Israel. At the very least, Iran’s leaders have reacted to the assault with encouragement and support.

The decisive factor shaping Iran’s foreign policy was the 1979 overthrow of the US-friendly, repressive Shah of Iran and the transfer of state power into the hands of a Shiite Muslim revolutionary regime. That regime was defined by stark anti-American imperialism and anti-Israeli Zionism.