Asian Angle | As global economies recover from impact of Covid-19, is it time for China’s day in the sun?
- Fresh confidence is abound in China with the easing of Covid restrictions, amid an ‘age of high mass consumption’ led by technology
- The reality of China is in stark contrast to the China that is thought and spoken about outside the country
Stuck in a massive traffic jam in Beijing last Sunday, it was hard not to think that the reality of China and the place it is thought to be from abroad are parallel universes.
The China with burgeoning middle-class consumption, a decade of 5 per cent-plus economic growth, the biggest market for all East Asia and Oceania, and the pivotal point for global supply chains, is unrecognisable from the China with Covid-19, severe economic disruption, an imploding property sector, and local governments mired in debt.
The “China Collapse” propagators have always thrived on wishful thinking, but as the United States moves more decisively towards containing China and whistles up a posse of allies to help the cause, it could lead to dangerous strategic miscalculation.
After a 17-month absence during the pandemic, China is not going anywhere except to become stronger and more powerful. Travelling in Shandong province, population 102 million, and then by high-speed rail to Beijing at 305 kilometres/hour, it seemed that the Chinese economy was resurging. Vast construction sites were populated by dozens of cranes, new high-speed rail lines were going up and eight-lane highways were being rolled out.
These are of course only anecdotal observations, but they give texture and colour to dry numbers such as a 5 per cent GDP growth. Equally anecdotal are the conversations one has, but they also provide a feel for what is happening, something Australians are now largely denied since Australian media is no longer present in China.
With the reopening of China after the ending of Covid-19 restrictions, a new confidence seems to be surging through the country. Contemporary art exhibitions are being launched across Beijing and new bars and restaurants are popping up. Cinemas are full. When speaking with people who are well placed within the political system, the sense is one of confidence not only in the economy but in China’s ability to weather US containment.
While the next two years are seen by observers to be a particularly dangerous period with the prospect of armed conflict with the US, beyond that it is felt that China’s time will have come, given China’s strength in investments in engineering, advanced manufacturing, artificial intelligence, the application of 5G technology, and green energy.
