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Asian Angle | Why Thai politics remains a rigged system with little chance of reforms
- Thailand’s Senate has an outsize role in who forms government because the bulk of the 250 senators are uniformed military or police personnel
- Several senators have stated they would not endorse Paethongtharn Shinawatra, former leader Thaksin’s daughter, even if she has the votes to form government
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Thai politicians are now beginning their campaigns in earnest after Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha announced this month that he would dissolve the house early and call a general election on May 7.
The behind-the-scenes manoeuvring is intensifying as party leaders contend with the reality of the senate’s outsize role, that makes the magic number for an opposition party to form government 376, not 251. Thai politics have never been so fluid.
Thailand’s electoral system has undergone three significant changes since 2019. First, the Election Commission reduced the number of party list seats from 150 to 100, meaning there are now 400 first-past-the-post spots. The party list seats system is designed to ensure that contesting parties which garner a sizeable number of votes, even if defeated, are represented in parliament.
Second, the new formula for party list allocations no longer favours small parties. For example, in 2019, 20 parties that failed to win any constituency seats were allocated 39 party list seats. The final allocation threshold is still not settled, and is unlikely to award any to Pheu Thai – founded by former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra – with an arbitrary ceiling set similar to the 110 in 2019.
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Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha suspended from official duties pending term-limit review
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha suspended from official duties pending term-limit review
Third, the election law prevents candidates from switching parties 30 days before the election.
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