Asian AngleChina’s zero-Covid policy, botched reopening will puzzle historians for years to come

Beijing abruptly ended its strict zero-Covid stance after three years but analysts will spend many more figuring out the true cost of the policy

It remains to be seen whether and how quickly the scarring done to parts of China’s economy can be reversed by its eventual reopening

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People wearing face masks cross a road in Beijing. Scientists have warned that China will face multiple waves of Covid-19 infections as the Omicron variant mutates to spread faster and evade immunity. Photo: EPA-EFE

Published: 12:00pm, 6 Jan 2023

It has become apparent that mainland China has botched its Covid-19 reopening. After three years of maintaining a strict zero-Covid policy, the surprise at its about-face has been surpassed only by questions as to why such a costly, unsustainable policy was pursued for so long.

Economists and historians will spend years trying to find the answers to three mysteries in relation to China’s (mis)handling of the pandemic.

First is the question of what the true costs of the zero-Covid policy were, and in particular, whether they were worth paying.

Officials raise a Chinese flag along the Bund in Shanghai. China is doing away with its strict zero-Covid policy after three years of lockdowns, compulsory mass testing, centralised quarantines and contract tracing. Photo: Bloomberg

Most credible estimates point to more than a million Covid deaths over the next three months. Given the economic damage that zero-Covid wrought – especially in 2022 when the rest of the world had already lifted most pandemic-era restrictions – historians and economists will inevitably ask: what was it all for?

An analysis of zero-Covid’s consequences ought to also include direct health costs, especially the excess deaths caused by other conditions not treated as a result zero-Covid restrictions, lost output from economic shutdowns, and the harm caused to people’s lives and mental health as a result of extended lockdowns and the sometimes arbitrary quarantining of millions of people.