Asian AngleAs instability brews in Central Asia, can China’s investment diplomacy in region still work?

Uncertainty on the rise as five Central Asian countries struggle with looming civil war, riots and possible confrontation with Russia

Coming summit in Uzbekistan could indicate how Beijing will seek to protect economic, security interests in region to counter Moscow’s influence

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Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his Kazakh counterpart Mukhtar Tleuberdi during a meeting in Uzbekistan in July. The Central Asia region is critical to China, which shares almost 1,800km of borders with it. Photo: Handout via Xinhua

Published: 9:00am, 21 Aug 2022

Since gaining independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the five Central Asian countries have mostly stayed out of the media glare. When they have hit the headlines, it is usually because of proximate events, such as the fall of Kabul to the Taliban last year.

But now, internal tensions as a result of economic woes and external pressures from transnational terrorism and criminal organisations have created a tinderbox.

From a looming civil war in Afghanistan, which will directly affect Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan, to riots in Kazakhstan and western Uzbekistan, or a possible confrontation between Moscow and Kazakh capital Nur-Sultan, uncertainty is on the rise.

This volatility has not gone unnoticed in China. In his recent book, Sinostan, Raffaello Pantucci, an expert on Central Asian security, notes that China is wary that Uygur militants will use Afghanistan to foster instability in Xinjiang. Adding to this old concern is a growing fear that Beijing’s other adversaries might seek to use Afghanistan as a base to target China or its interests from Central to South Asia.

These adversaries include the ever-widening range of militant groups in the region, such as the Islamic State in Khorasan Province, the Turkestan Islamic Party in the Badakhshan area, and the Pakistani Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan.