Sarang Shidore

Opinion | Why South and Southeast Asia must cooperate to prevent a new Cold War amid US-China rivalry

The Aukus alliance is the latest US move to counter China, and this steadily militarising rivalry could turn South and Southeast Asia into frontline states

But they can avoid this if they act together to pursue strategic convergence in their relations with the US and China to enshrine future peace and prosperity

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The Chinese and US flags. If their rivalry militarises further and pressures on nations escalate, South and Southeast Asia will lose a major opportunity for enshrining a future of peace and prosperity in their region. Photo: Shutterstock

Sarang Shidore

Published: 10:35am, 5 Oct 2021Updated: 12:54pm, 6 Oct 2021

As China’s rise continues unabated, it is hardly a secret that the United States is reorienting its grand strategy to counter China in all domains, with the Aukus announcement as its latest manifestation. Washington’s goal is to prevent the emergence of China as a peer competitor and retain (or recover) US global dominance. The steadily militarising US-China rivalry threatens to roil South and Southeast Asia and could convert it into a set of “frontline states”.

However, such a dystopian future can be prevented if India and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) led by key member states such as Indonesia, Vietnam and Singapore, succeed in forging a common strategic intent. They must do so before it is too late.

The international system has become economically more multipolar but remains very much unipolar in the military sphere. The United States spends more on defence than the next 11 countries combined (seven of which are American allies), maintains hundreds of far-flung bases, and has by far the largest set of treaty allies.

This peculiar structure of uni-multipolarity, combined with the anxiety of decline, is tempting Washington to prioritise hard security as a counter to China.

The United States has steadily whittled away at the One-China policy and persuaded treaty allies Japan and South Korea to wade into the Taiwan question. Aukus has catapulted Australia into the status of a “frontline state”. Nato has also recently portrayed China as a military challenge. The US Congress is in the process of passing legislation replete with Cold War-era language on China. And aggressive Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) only serve to provoke Beijing in a region where there is little threat to sea trade and travel.

The United States has also helped construct a new China-balancing geography termed the “Indo-Pacific”, and is doubling down on the four-nation Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) also including Japan, Australia, and India. Though the Quad’s recent rhetoric has focused on non-traditional security, military interoperability and war-fighting exercises between these same four states are intensifying.