OpinionTo understand China’s plans for Afghanistan, take a look at Somalia

The term “The Great Game” was coined to describe the great power competition between tsarist Russia and the British Empire in Afghanistan during the 19th Century. With the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban over the weekend, the term is still being used and abused as analysts and others try to divine the future of the country and what other powers might do.

China has been one particular point of interest: tongues began wagging as soon as State Councillor Wang Yi met Taliban co-founder Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar in Tianjin on July 28 and described the group as a “pivotal military and political force”. Beijing’s statements in the wake of the fall of Kabul, that it “respects the choice of Afghans”, will do nothing to quell speculation about China’s ambitions.

Questions are already being asked about whether the “Graveyard of Empires” will live up to its name by consuming the dragon next. Following the Taliban’s return to power in Kabul, the highly-fluid situation will give rise to several degrees of anxiety for Beijing. China shares the same fears that Central Asian countries have over neighbouring Afghanistan: the rise of Islamic terrorism, a new wave of refugees, and increased narcotics trafficking. The proximity of Afghanistan to the US$63 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor represents another problem: it is part of what we can term China’s “Belt and Road of Anxiety”.