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Opinion | Will Australia feel the squeeze even more from a stronger China in 2021?
- The fallout from Covid-19 has accelerated the trend of China’s economic might in the world and political influence in the Asia-Pacific
- While countries like the US and Britain have offered Australia some rhetorical support in its China predicament, its Asian neighbours have been notably quiet
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Great power competition in the Asia-Pacific region has been building for years, but Covid-19 has turbocharged the shifts taking place and China finished 2020 in a significantly stronger position compared with the US than when the year started.
Meanwhile, Canberra’s relations with Beijing continue to deteriorate and there’s little reason to be optimistic that a sudden, positive turnaround will be seen in 2021.
As competition, rather than cooperation, has become the dominant frame through which both Beijing and Washington view their bilateral relationship, each is increasingly sensitive to evidence that other countries in the Asia-Pacific region are supporting their opponent.
The fundamental driver of China’s hostility towards Australia in 2020 stemmed from its assessment that Australia’s leaders have reneged on earlier commitments to never direct the country’s security alliance with the US against China.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has appealed for Australia and other middle and smaller powers to be granted “greater latitude” in how they manoeuvre between the US and China in the future. But the University of Sydney’s James Curran cautioned against unrealistic expectations, saying in The Australian Financial Review that “Great powers simply don’t dole out strategic space to others.”
CHINA’S POWER ON AN UPWARD TRAJECTORY
At the end of 2019, China’s GDP stood at US$14.3 trillion. This was two-thirds that of the US GDP of $21.3 trillion.
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