OpinionWill Trump or Biden be better for Asean countries amid US-China stand-off?

Under Biden, US foreign policy will not ‘snap back’ to that of the Obama era, and its hardline strategy towards China will remain largely unchanged

Whichever candidate wins, Asean countries will find themselves at the centre of an intensifying Sino-US rivalry, especially over the South China Sea

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US President Donald Trump shakes hands with Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong of Singapore at the UN in September 2019, one of the few times he has met with the leader of an Asean nation. Photo: AFP

Published: 10:00am, 12 Oct 2020Updated: 6:38pm, 12 Nov 2020

The US presidential election on November 3 will be the most consequential in a generation, both for the United States and the rest of the world. The lack of policy-oriented debate in the campaign to date means that the future of US foreign policy and the country’s approach to the Asia-Pacific is unusually speculative regardless of which candidate wins.

On October 1, President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump tested positive for Covid-19, throwing another wild card into the heated election campaign.

If Trump is re-elected for a second term he is likely to pursue many of the same policies, domestically and internationally. The Republican National Committee opted not to publish a 2020 party platform, instead deciding to persist with the 2016 party platform. A second term is also likely to be characterised by the same rancour and unpredictability that marked his first term in office.

Unless Democratic challenger Joe Biden wins an overwhelming majority of the states, the popular vote and the electoral college, Trump could legally challenge the result, leading to political uncertainty and possibly violent protests for several months. Such a scenario would likely be more destabilising than the aftermath of the 2000 contested presidential election.