appConfigEntityId

bodyType

customContents

entityId

entityUuid

isVideo

articlePageQuery

article

articleSchemaContent

content

hooksArticlePageAdvertisementConfigArticle

hooksArticlePageFloatingButtonConfigArticle

appConfig

filter

json

liveArticle

Swee Kheng Khor

Everyone wants to know when Covid-19 will “end”. The short answer is when we find a vaccine and administer it to 80-95 per cent of the world’s population, which will be mid-2021 at the earliest.
Twelve months is a long time to be making crucial Covid-19 decisions in a volatile and unpredictable environment. Lockdowns have generally worked, but they are blunt instruments and cannot last till mid-2021.
We all want to restart our economies and societies as safely, quickly and widely as possible. How should governments decide how, how much, how fast and which sectors to restart?

I offer three suggestions. If implemented together, we can create a steady state of predictable decision-making until we deliver a vaccine to all 7.7 billion human beings.
The first suggestion is to be more predictable in the time schedule of decisions. Right now, the general trend is to make reactive decisions to lift lockdowns or restart economies based on ad hoc events, whenever economic or political pressures become overwhelming, or when epidemiological indicators show the smallest sign of recovery.
These unscheduled decisions make it difficult for businesses to plan ahead and for citizens to adjust psychologically. Such decisions hold public health policies hostage to the whims and fancies of politicians and commercial interests, while ignoring data.
Unscheduled decisions may have been unavoidable in the initial stages of this pandemic but are becoming less defensible. As we enter the fifth month of Covid-19 with at least another 12 months to go, we must move towards more predictable decision-making time schedules.
These should follow a set rhythm, for example every Monday, every second Monday or every first Monday of the month.
The predictable timing of decisions has many advantages, with the main one being enforced gradualness in the national restart. It will also reduce the risk of decisions being captured by lobby groups, increase the transparency of decision-making and reduce decision fatigue by governments, not to mention depoliticising decisions.


The second suggestion is to be more predictable in the criteria used to make decisions. Right now, decision makers are using ever-changing or cherry-picked criteria to support their own biases. So, instead of evidence-based policymaking, we have policy-based evidence making (this is perhaps the polite term for leaders lying using manufactured statistics).
Inconsistent criteria could have been unavoidable at first, given the bureaucratic silos of any government, but this has also become less defensible as time goes on.
A consistent set of criteria until mid-2021 will introduce more predictability for citizens and businesses, although it will be politically contentious to create this set of criteria.
Coronavirus: are travel bans an effective way to curb Covid-19’s spread?
There are two broad solutions to find that balance between lives and livelihoods.
One is to depoliticise the criteria by relying on hard epidemiological data such as the number of new cases, number of active cases or incidence ratio in the last 14 days. This must be backed up by expanded testing programmes to improve the accuracy and reduce the time lag of the data.
Another is to schedule a periodic review for the relevance, usefulness and timeliness of the criteria, for example every three months. This will hopefully defuse the politics just enough to write the predictable set of criteria into the long-term national strategy.
The biggest benefit of using predictable epidemiological criteria is that decisions are more immune to economic or political pressures.

The third suggestion is to reopen by sectors, not by geographies, which will resolve the challenges of geographic reopening. For example, the national-level strategies of Brazil, the Philippines, the United States, and Malaysia are not supported by all state or provincial governments.
A geographic reopening must resolve the endless debate of the right size of the “administrative and implementation unit”. Should it be restarting the whole country, or by states, regions, districts, cities, towns, or villages; and who has the authority to make the decisions?
Each of these administrative units have different governments, resources, enforcement abilities, risk profiles, disease burdens, and economic activities. Hence, a national-level restart could be dangerous, unfair, and unpredictable.
The West could have made Covid-19 plans in January. Why blame others now?
A sectoral restart is an elegant solution to the complexities of federal-state relationships. For example, governments can jointly decide on essential, semi-essential, and non-essential economic activities, and restart the economy in phases based on this.
Not only that, governments can restart the economic sector first, while announcing that social activities (funerals, religious congregations or restaurants) may restart in one month, followed by the educational sector (starting with children in examination years) in two months, the cultural sector in three months, and so on. This is just a rough guide. The main point is to reopen sectorally, and announce the sequence so that citizens and businesses can prepare for it.

These three suggestions are interdependent and should be implemented together.
However, they do not resolve other problems such as the quality of political leadership, available political will, government transparency and accountability, the resilience of the health system, and the quality of decision-making criteria. These require other solutions.
Coronavirus: why Asia will win the race to economic recovery
What’s clear is that after five months of fighting Covid-19, we need to rapidly move into a predictable, steady state of decision-making. Reactive policies on the back of decision fatigue are real problems, not to mention being ineffective and dangerous.
Predictable timing of decisions, criteria for decisions and reopening by sectors will help us achieve that steady state of decision-making.

Help us understand what you are interested in so that we can improve SCMP and provide a better experience for you. We would like to invite you to take this five-minute survey on how you engage with SCMP and the news.



Hong Kong’s Peninsula Hotels sees ‘bleisure’ boom after pandemic curbs, CEO says

US could require US$15,000 bonds for some tourist, business visas

China’s Shenzhen, Guangzhou airports hit record highs, surpass pre-Covid passenger levels

Landmark US Chinatown survived Covid, anti-Asian violence – but tariffs pose new threat

Coronavirus pandemic

Until there’s a Covid-19 vaccine, here are three ways governments can make decisions to restart their countries

A health worker collects a nasal swab sample from a man to test for the coronavirus in Paris, as France cautiously eases its two-month lockdown. Photo: AP

epa08414035 A Sri Lankan roadside vendor sells face mask near the market in Colombo, Sri Lanka, 11 May 2020. The Sri Lankan government announced on 11th May the relaxation of the island-wide curfew to restart economic activity in the country. The curfew was imposed for nearly two-month in order to slow down the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus that causes the COVID-19 disease. EPA-EFE/CHAMILA KARUNARATHNE

epa08406884 Private hospital health worker wearing a protective gear take a rest while waiting his customer on drive-thru COVID-19 screenings in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 07 May 2020. Malaysia opened its economic activities for the first time on 04 May since the coronavirus lockdown was imposed last 18 March. Under the new regulations, all foreign workers in construction, factories, commercial and restaurants must undergo COVID-19 screening. EPA-EFE/FAZRY ISMAIL

Soldiers wearing a face mask patrolling next to barbed wire at a newly locked down coronavirus affected area at old town of Petaling Jaya, Malaysia, on Sunday, May 10, 2020. Many business sectors reopened since May 4 in some parts of Malaysia since a partial virus lockdown began March 18. (AP Photo/Vincent Thian)

Coronavirus: as Europe gradually reopens, businesses remain pessimistic about recovery

Pedestrians walk past closed shops in Brussels. Photo: Reuters

epa08411442 People at a street in Bolzano, northern Italy, 09 May 2020, during phase two of the emergency over the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. The assembly of the autonomous province of Bolzano, Alto Adige (South Tyrol), voted on 08 May to speed-up the reopening of activities during phase two of the coronavirus emergency. As a result, shops will be able to open on 09 May, and hairdressers, bars, restaurants and museums on 11 May. EPA-EFE/G. NEWS

Carlos cleans his restaurant before trying to reopen it from May 11, as some Spanish provinces are allowed to ease restrictions amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in Guadalajara, Spain, May 10, 2020. REUTERS/Sergio Perez

epa08412947 Preparations are underway as bars get ready to open on the next day in Gandia, Valencia, Spain, 10 May 2020. Valencia region will enter Phase 1 of a four-phase de-escalation plan to lift lockdown restrictions that were implemented due to the ongoing pandemic of the COVID-19 disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. Phase Zero started on 04 May 2020, but moves to the next stage depends on the health situation in each of the country's provinces, reports state. EPA-EFE/Natxo Frances

epa08413037 A woman wearing a protective face mask walks at Las Ramblas street in Barcelona , Spain, 10 May 2020. The region is on phase zero of the de-escalation plan amid the ongoing COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, while moving to the next stage will depend on the coronavirus situation of each province. EPA-EFE/Toni Albir

Coronavirus: Britain’s Boris Johnson lays out road map for easing lockdown

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson speaks during the filming of an address to the nation at 10 Downing Street. Photo: Andrew Parsons/10 Downing Street via dpa

The government's new catch-phrase is displayed on sceen as a family gather around the television to watch Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson give a televised message to the nation in Hartley Wintney, west of London on May 10, 2020, as the government sets out it's roadmap to ease the national lockdown due to the novel coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic. - Prime Minister Boris Johnson issued new stay-at-home advice on Sunday and warned he would proceed cautiously on lifting a nationwide coronavirus lockdown as the death toll in Britain, already the highest in Europe, continues to mount. (Photo by Adrian DENNIS / AFP)

A handout picture released by the Scottish Government on May 10, 2020 shows Scotland's First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon speaking during the Scottish government's daily briefing on the novel coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak, at St. Andrew's House, Edinburgh. - The Prime Minister's new 'stay alert' slogan drew criticism from Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, who warned infection rate in her country remained too high to ease public advice. (Photo by - / Scottish Government / AFP) / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - MANDATORY CREDIT " AFP PHOTO / SCOTTISH GOVERNMENT " - NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS - NO ARCHIVES

Coronavirus: no new cases in Hong Kong as city’s leader reveals plans to relax cross-border travel restrictions

A security guard stands on duty at the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge. Photo: Edmond So

Will the coronavirus pandemic derail Japan’s economy as it extends emergency measures?

A security guard wearing a face mask stands in front of a Shinkansen bullet train upon its arrival at Tokyo Station on April 25. Photo: AFP

FILE PHOTO: A worker is seen among newly manufactured cars awaiting export at port in Yokohama, Japan, November 15, 2017. REUTERS/Toru Hanai/File Photo

epa08400573 Pedestrians walk past a public TV display showing Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe speaking at a televised news conference at Kabukicho, most popular and biggest entertainment district at Shinjuku in Tokyo, Japan, 04 May 2020, during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Prime Minister Abe announced on the day the extension of a state of emergency until 31 May 2020 as a preventive measure to stem the spread of the infection disease. EPA-EFE/KIMIMASA MAYAMA

This Week in Asia

Opinion

Health & Environment

Politics

Coronavirus

Analysis & Opinion


We all want to restart our economies and societies as safely and quickly as possible while we wait for a coronavirus vaccine, but how?
Governments can have predictable time schedules for decisions, use predictable decision criteria, and gradually reopen by sectors not geographies



With no end in sight until a Covid-19 vaccine is developed, here are three ways governments can restart their economies and societies as quickly and safely as possible.


Coronavirus pandemic: All stories

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)
