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Vietnam
This Week in AsiaOpinion
David Koh
David Koh

Opinion | Is China and Vietnam’s ‘brotherly love’ adrift in the South China Sea?

  • When it comes to the disputed waterway, both countries are finding that a history of comradeship is not a foundation for national policy
  • Hanoi may soon find itself outflanked by Beijing – all while the US monitors developments in the region

Reading Time:5 minutes
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A Vietnamese policeman approaches anti-China protesters during a 2019 demonstration in front of the Chinese embassy in Hanoi, Vietnam. Photo: Reuters
David Koh
Much has been made of the comradeship between the two communist-ruled countries of Vietnam and China. Often they declare one side has been and is still the other’s strategic hinterland. They also often refer to the periods when they, as brothers in arms, joined forces to fight imperialists and colonialists. But romance is not a sustainable foundation for national policy.
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When it comes to the South China Sea, Chinese and Vietnamese claims are zero sum – as, for that matter, are any claims in the disputed waterway – and there have not really been any discussions on joint sovereignty, joint use, joint exploitation of resources, or joint anything.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) is out of the game as far as helping to resolve the tensions quickly is concerned. The United States smells blood, with its own freedom of navigation interests having been affected by South China Sea grabs by all claimants, as well as its aim of containing China.

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The US is also now looking towards having a land anchor abreast the South China Sea, since the Philippines is mercurial in its military and defence relations with Washington. Other defence scenarios being mulled include defending its treaty partners of Japan and South Korea, as well as aid to Taiwan.

Observers think that Hanoi’s disillusionment with Beijing will pivot Vietnam towards the US, which wants a much deeper strategic and even military relationship with major countries in Southeast Asia. But Vietnam is not quite willing to move fast with the US, so as not to provoke China into some kind of strategic reaction that will catch Vietnam by surprise. Therefore Hanoi continues to emphasise the risks of having the US fully on board, such as American democratisation designs on the Vietnamese communist government. The US has become a bargaining chip for Vietnam against China.

A Chinese Coast Guard ship (top) is seen near a Vietnam Marine Guard vessel in the South China Sea in 2014. Photo: Reuters
A Chinese Coast Guard ship (top) is seen near a Vietnam Marine Guard vessel in the South China Sea in 2014. Photo: Reuters
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Responses to the Vietnamese government’s strategy vary at home. But while there is no debate about the current administration’s loyalty, there is a debate on how to pursue the country’s goals. Societal views range from seeing the government as naive, still bathing in the socialist sunlight of brotherly love and willing to suffer temporary losses of sovereignty, to viewing Hanoi as being rightly cautious and wanting to prevent war – but not being afraid of war, if it is necessary.

Within the country’s government and communist party, there is a smaller range of differences in view, concentrating on the need to use multiple layers of tactics and strategies rather than being solely belligerent or militaristic. Over the past two decades, Vietnam has made strong inroads in relations with the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (diplomatic front), in inviting multilateral defence cooperation (military front), and enhancing its growth and wealth (the economic underpinnings of those initial two tactics).

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