Asian Angle | Asean and the art of living with China
Southeast Asian nations have a long history of somehow letting China lead the way without getting pushed around. Those geopolitical skills are likely to come in handy once again
The unity of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) was shaken after the International Tribunal of the Law of the Sea delivered its judgment on the South China Sea maritime claims in July 2016. When the Philippines took China to the tribunal for compulsory arbitration in January 2013, it did not consult the association beforehand; it knew Asean would not have supported the action. When the award was made, Asean countries had no common stance and were badly split. All came under pressure from the US and China to take opposite sides.
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When Rodrigo Duterte became president, the Philippines decided to change tactics and work with China. Vietnam, under a new leadership more friendly to China, also shifted. The risk of a Balkanised Southeast Asia receded.
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte salutes military honour guards during departure rites from the Ninoy Aquino International Airport in Manila before going to India to attend the Association of Southeast Asian Nations India Special Commemorative Summit. Photo: EPA
Since then, the consolidation of power by President Xi Jinping in China and the election of President Donald Trump in the US are causing Asean nations to re-triangulate their position vis-à-vis the major powers. Trump’s abandonment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership came as a shock.
The people of Southeast Asia have seen the rise of China several times before, and are girding themselves for a yet another cycle. No Asean country wants China as an enemy.
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China has become or is becoming everyone’s number one trading partner. All are competing for Chinese tourists and Chinese investment, especially in infrastructure. China’s Belt and Road Initiative is viewed as a godsend. The 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party last October and the recent 14th National People’s Congress laid out China’s plans and hopes for the coming decades. There is a general sense in Asean that China’s rise is unstoppable and that it is only a matter of time before China becomes the world’s biggest economy and once again the dominant power in Asia. For comparison, Asean today has about half of China’s population and one-fifth its gross domestic product.
