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North Korea nuclear crisis
This Week in AsiaOpinion
Denny Roy
Denny Roy

Opinion | Why the North Korea nuclear crisis will return with a vengeance

China’s clampdown on imports makes it easy for Washington to give sanctions another chance in the short term, but in the long term ...

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South Korean protesters carry a caricature of US President Donald Trump towards the US embassy in Seoul. Photo: AFP
Denny Roy

Accustomed to the privileges of being a superpower, Americans have a low tolerance for insecurity. They cannot abide the notion that the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) government, which Americans generally believe is both irrational and extremely hostile, will soon be able to hit the US homeland with a nuclear missile.

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In Hawaii, for example, public anxiety over North Korea recently caused the state government to release guidelines for coping with “nuclear detonation”. The guidelines include handy tips such as the suggestion that drivers pull to the side of the road, and a warning that “electrical, water and other utilities may be severely disrupted or unavailable”. For those old enough to remember the cold war, this is reminiscent of the authorities’ advice to “duck and cover” upon hearing the sirens indicating incoming Soviet missiles.
The rhetoric coming out of both Pyongyang and Washington is disturbing. Increasing the mutual hostility and each side’s worries that the other may be planning to attack can worsen the crisis. Nevertheless, the forces restraining both sides from shooting first are very robust. Both sides have reason to talk tough but act cautiously. Uncharacteristicly for an American president, Trump has recently used rhetoric against North Korea that sounds like Pyongyang’s threats against the United States. But Trump’s “fire and fury” comment was not an accurate statement of US policy. The literal meaning was that the US will respond to North Korean “threats” and “threatening” with a nuclear attack. This was disproved hours later by a new North Korean threat against Guam that produced no mushroom cloud over Pyongyang.

WATCH: US versus North Korea: Beijing residents have their say

It is reasonable to interpret Trump’s comment as a restatement of a long-held and rather obvious US position, which is that if North Korea were to use a nuclear weapon against the United States or a US ally, Washington would respond with a devastating military attack against the North Korean government, very likely including a nuclear counterstrike. It is necessary for the US to restate this position more clearly and strongly as North Koreans get closer to a nuclear capability, lest they believe their new capability makes them immune to retaliation.

A US B1-B Lancer bomber flies over Andersen Air Force Base in Hagata, Guam. Photo: AP
A US B1-B Lancer bomber flies over Andersen Air Force Base in Hagata, Guam. Photo: AP

For its part, Pyongyang speaks in stridently bellicose terms as part of a time-honoured strategy of using bravado to compensate for economic and conventional military weakness vis-à-vis the US and South Korea, to extract concessions from them, and to create the impression at home that the Kim regime is heroically protecting the country from war-mongering foreigners. Actually starting a war, however, would be suicidal for the regime. North Korea generally stipulates that its threats are what the DPRK would do in response to a US or South Korean attack. In some cases Pyongyang has issued vague threats that turn out to be bluffs, such as saying it will retaliate against economic sanctions with military force.

North Korea is addicted to missiles – if intervention fails, it’s war

There are three possible ways Washington can attempt to stop North Korea from deploying a workable long-range nuclear missile. The first is diplomacy with Pyongyang. This appears to have reached an impasse because Washington insists negotiations must be about Pyongyang denuclearising, while Pyongyang insists it will never give up its nuclear weapons.

WATCH: Trump on North Korea

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