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SCMP’s Asia desk

The magnitude 7.7 earthquake that hit Japan on Monday has renewed worries on Indonesia’s holiday island of Bali, which sits on the same Pacific Ring of Fire.
Hours after the quake, the Japan Meteorological Agency issued a special advisory warning of a slightly elevated risk of a temblor with a magnitude of 8 or stronger in the coming days. It said there was a 1 per cent chance of a megaquake, compared with 0.1 per cent at other times.
Monday’s temblor came just days after the Bali Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) issued a fresh round of warnings about the risk of a megathrust earthquake with a magnitude of 9.0 on the Richter scale hitting the island.
According to the US Geological Survey, megathrust happens when a stuck tectonic plate along a fault slips under its neighbour, resulting in giant earthquakes. Other more frequent smaller earthquakes also occur within the lower plate or the crust of the upper plate.
Bali, Sumba and the Flores Islands are expected to be the worst hit from a megathrust earthquake, according to The Bali Sun.

The BMKG, however, stressed that the warnings were a risk assessment rather than a prediction.
“According to the National Earthquake Study Centre’s 2024 report, Bali is included in the area potentially affected by a megathrust in the Sumba fault,” BMKG’s young meteorology and geophysics observer Yogha Mahardika told the Bali Post on Saturday.
“However, this is not a prediction or forecast, but rather a form of mitigation education to ensure that the public remains vigilant.”
Though researchers believe it is only a matter of time before a megathrust earthquake strikes Indonesia, there is no technology that can accurately predict when it will occur, according to Yogha.
He said the BMKG issued regular warnings to ensure the public remained prepared.
A 2024 Indonesian earthquake source and hazard map identified 14 megathrust hotspots surrounding the archipelago, up from 13 in 2017.
The BMKG highlighted two zones as being long overdue for a megaquake: the Sunda Strait next to Bali, which last experienced a tremor in 1757, and the Mentawai-Siberut area, whose last quake was in 1797.
Bali is also vulnerable to tsunamis generated by megaquakes along the Nankai Trough, a 900km fault off Japan’s Pacific coast where the Philippine Sea plate sinks under the Eurasian plate.

“If a massive earthquake on the Nankai megathrust does occur and generates a tsunami, we need to be vigilant, as a large tsunami in Japan could potentially reach Indonesian territories,” BMKG’s Earthquake and Tsunami Centre head told reporters in July 2025, as quoted by The Bali Sun.
Bali recorded 547 earthquakes last year, the newspaper reported.
Indonesia is the most seismically active country in the world, according to the Earthquake List, updated daily using data from the US Geological Survey and the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre. Japan is third on the list.
A magnitude 6 earthquake struck North Central Timor regency in Indonesia’s East Nusa Tenggara on Tuesday.
Information posted on the BMKG’s official website said the earthquake’s epicentre was 67km northwest of North Central Timor at a depth of 31km.
“This earthquake poses no tsunami risk,” BMKG wrote in a statement, as quoted by Antara on Tuesday.
The strongest tremors were felt in Atambua. They registered between III and IV on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale, meaning shaking could be felt indoors, with objects toppling and windows creaking.
There were no official reports of injuries or building damage.


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Bali, Sumba and the Flores Islands are expected to be the worst hit from a megathrust earthquake in the Sumba fault


Bali, Sumba and the Flores Islands are expected to be the worst hit from a megathrust earthquake in the Sumba fault.


Why Japan’s earthquake has Bali on edge over magnitude 9 ‘megathrust’ risk

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Bali, Sumba and the Flores Islands are expected to be the worst hit from a megathrust earthquake in the Sumba fault

Bali, Sumba and the Flores Islands are expected to be the worst hit from a megathrust earthquake in the Sumba fault