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Julian Ryall

Japan is hoping further US-Iran talks will ease tensions in the Middle East and help reopen the Strait of Hormuz permanently, but there is also mounting anxiety over what a failure could mean for the country as summer approaches.
On Friday, Iran said it would reopen the strait for commercial shipping following a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon, while US ⁠President Donald Trump added that a US naval blockade of Iran’s ports would ‌remain until a deal with Tehran was struck.
The fear in Japan, however, is that any further disruption to energy shipments through the strait, combined with an unusually early spell of hot weather, could leave the country facing power shortages at the worst possible moment.
In the bleakest scenario, that could force the government to introduce planned power outages, ask offices, schools and shops to shorten their hours, and cut some train and flight services.
The concern for Japan is not simply oil. While Tokyo says it has ample crude reserves, analysts warn the more immediate vulnerability is liquefied natural gas (LNG), which is used to generate electricity in Japan’s major cities and is harder to store in large volumes.
That matters more as temperatures rise and demand for air conditioning begins to climb.

On Friday, the Japan Meteorological Agency issued a weather alert covering virtually the entire country, warning that temperatures from April 22 would be “considerably higher” than the average for the month.
Temperatures could be as much as 2.6 degrees above normal, the agency said, while cautioning about avalanches in areas still with snow and urging farmers to take precautions to protect crops.
High temperatures this early in the year are a harbinger of another record-breaking summer, according to climate experts. In its outlook for the summer months, released in February, the agency said 2025 was the hottest year on record, with temperatures between June and August more than 2.3 degrees above the 30-year average.
A temperature of 41.8 degrees Celsius (107.24 degrees Fahrenheit) was reported in the city of Isesaki, in Gunma prefecture, on August 5 – the highest ever in Japan – while 30 locations across 13 prefectures reported highs above 40 degrees.
Analysts warn those records could be broken again this year, and that energy shortages may exacerbate the situation, such as by limiting air conditioner use.
Author and journalist Jun Yamada has cautioned in a Yahoo News opinion article published on Thursday that Japan faces a “hellish summer” and what may become the “greatest crisis since the end of World War II”.
Even if the US and Iran reach an agreement to halt the conflict, Yamada says bottlenecks, backlogs and depleted reserves mean severe disruptions to the flow of fuel from the Middle East will persist, along with other complications.

“Oil shortages and soaring prices, a widening budget deficit, an unstoppable depreciation of the yen, inflation [or rather, stagflation], rising interest rates, falling stock prices – it’s clear that we’re facing multiple challenges,” said Yamada, author of Global Warming Defeat.
“What will happen when we add the heatwaves caused by global warming to the mix? This year, we’ve already recorded temperatures equivalent to midsummer in April.”
Yamada warned that if the situation continued, Japan could be forced to implement measures such as “planned power outages, energy conservation for air conditioners, shortened office hours, production adjustments in manufacturing, partial suspension of train and plane services, reduced operating hours for supermarkets and closed gas stations”.
In summers gone by, health authorities have issued instructions for people to keep an eye on elderly neighbours to make sure they stay in the shade and hydrated during the hottest months. Retirees and low-income families have also been told to use their air conditioning even if they are worried about not being able to pay their bills.
Yamada’s warnings have attracted online attention, with one message reading, “If the power struggle to control the strait by force continues indefinitely without a clear winner, it’s predicted that by this time next year, Japan’s industries and energy supply will be completely crippled.”
Another added, “It’s nothing short of terrifying. I know it’s wrong, but it’s better to stock up on daily necessities and things that can be stored for a long time to prepare for shortages and price increases.”
The government is doing what it can to ease concerns, with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi saying last week that Japan had secured enough oil to last into next year.

There is, however, greater concern about LNG supplies. LNG is primarily used to generate electricity in Japan’s major cities and is critical to industry, but limited storage capacity means only about one month’s supply is available.
“My impression is that ordinary people are not too concerned right now, but that could change if the talks end badly,” Hiroo Ichikawa, a professor emeritus of urban planning and policy at Meiji University, told This Week in Asia.
“There is talk about the oil shocks of the 1970s and that is worrying some people … Japanese people have a tendency to panic at times like these and they will go out, buy everything they can and just hoard it.”
Martin Schulz, chief policy economist for Fujitsu’s Global Market Intelligence Unit, agrees that the current Middle East crisis has had a greater impact on Japan than other historical incidents, in part because the yen is no longer considered a safe haven currency and is at historically weak levels, making imports more expensive.
“There seem to be sufficient oil reserves for an extended period, but the problem is LNG,” he said, pointing to the limited storage capacity and weak yen making prices higher for consumers.
“Tankers that left the Strait of Hormuz before the blockade have already arrived so there is not much more expected to arrive from the Middle East for a while. There is a long tail in deliveries, and there will still be a gap of several weeks even if the crisis is over [soon].”
On the positive side, Japan is able to source LNG from other markets, including Australia and Malaysia, while some coal-fired energy plants that had been mothballed are being prepared in case they are required.
“This is affecting Japan, but not as seriously as in other parts of Asia,” Schulz said. “I see that in other countries in the region, university classes are being suspended and government offices are moving to four-day working weeks. But Japan can out-compete other countries on price, which puts a squeeze on other nations but acts as a buffer for Japan.”
Additional reporting by Reuters


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A prolonged Iran war, combined with an unusually early spell of hot weather, could leave Japan facing power shortages this summer


A prolonged Iran war, combined with an unusually early spell of hot weather, could leave Japan facing power shortages this summer.


Japan warned of ‘hellish summer’ as energy fears mount

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}A prolonged Iran war, combined with an unusually early spell of hot weather, could leave Japan facing power shortages this summer

A prolonged Iran war, combined with an unusually early spell of hot weather, could leave Japan facing power shortages this summer