Himalayas’ glacier loss threatens 2 billion people in ‘greatest problem of climate change’

Accelerating glacial retreat in the Himalayas over the past decades is threatening over 2 billion people in the region who depend on meltwater from the “water tower of Asia” for their daily needs, according to climate scientists. Glaciers in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region have been losing ice at twice the rate since 2000, with smaller glaciers under 0.5 sq km shrinking more rapidly than larger ones, according to two landmark reports published on Saturday to coincide with the World Day for Glaciers. Researchers warn that such a pace of loss poses immediate risks of localised water shortage and intensifying climate-related hazards. The findings were released by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), a Kathmandu-based intergovernmental organisation consisting of eight regional members, including India and China. “This is the first time we have this field-observed data that is giving us a signal that the mass loss has increased,” said Mohd Farooq Azam, a cryosphere specialist at ICIMOD and one of the report’s authors. “We can now see that there is a trend, which allows us to identify which glaciers to monitor.” The HKH stretches 3,500km (2,174 miles) across eight countries, from Afghanistan in the west to Myanmar in the east. It is home to over 54,000 glaciers that feed 10 of Asia’s largest river systems – Yangtze, Ganges, Mekong and Irrawaddy, among others – sustaining food, water, energy and livelihoods for billions in the region and downstream communities. Extreme heat impact Researchers from ICIMOD say about 78 per cent of the HKH region’s glacier area, located between 4,500 metres and 6,000 metres above sea level, is “highly exposed to elevation-dependent warming”. Glaciers in the HKH are expected to lose 30 per cent to 50 per cent of their volume if temperatures rise by 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius (2.7 to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100, according to a 2023 ICIMOD assessment. At the global level, 2024 was confirmed as the hottest year on record, with average temperature exceeding 1.5 degrees above the pre-industrial level, undermining the threshold set under the 2015 Paris Agreement. Researchers attribute this surge to increasing greenhouse gas emissions and “super pollutants”, such as black carbon, which raise temperatures and accelerate glacial melts. “But the HKH region is warming around twice the global temperature”, putting the region’s glaciers at greater risk, Azam said. Miriam Jackson, a glaciologist at the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate with experience in the Himalayas, said even a 10th of a degree increase would have a significant effect on the cryosphere, referring to Earth’s ice sheets, glaciers, sea ice, snow, and permafrost. She noted that glacial retreats would reduce the flow of water from snowmelt into rivers, triggering cascading risks and threatening lives and livelihoods. “Agriculture that is dependent on glacier meltwater will face greater and greater challenges, hydropower will be less efficient and create less electricity, and these and other changes will lead to societal unrest,” she said. “We should be scared, because even if we are not directly affected in terms of our water supply or sea level rise, we will feel the knock-on effects in some ways.” Jackson also warned of outburst floods from glacier lakes and rare glacial collapses becoming more frequent. In 2024, an outburst from the Thyanbo glacial lake in Nepal’s Everest region swept settlements, while a similar occurrence in the South Lhonak glacial lake a year earlier inundated the Teesta River, killing at least 77 people in India’s Sikkim state. Gaps in data Researchers of the new reports noted that between 1990 and 2020, the HKH glaciers lost about 12 per cent of their total area and 9 per cent of their estimated ice reserves. However, detailed assessments remain constrained by a dearth of adequate monitoring stations, with researchers describing “much of the region is a black box in terms of cryospheric risk assessments”. While the HKH has over 54,000 glaciers, there are only 38 monitoring stations, and nearly half of them are no longer in service. Major glacierised Himalayan regions spanning India, Pakistan and Bhutan are insufficiently monitored, according to researchers. Azam said that only seven of the 38 monitored glaciers – all but two are in Nepal – adhere to the World Glacier Monitoring Service’s benchmark standards, or at least 10 years of observations. “We need better coordination to plan strategically,” he said. “The findings in our report will help select more glaciers where we currently don’t have observations.” Photographic records over the decades can help illustrate the impact of rising temperatures on glaciers, according to analysts. Images of the Yala Glacier in Nepal’s Langtang region have shown its dramatic transformation over time – it was declared a “dead glacier” last year after shrinking 66 per cent since the 1970s. They argued that governments must tackle the “urgent” problem swiftly, noting that glaciers served as early warning indicators of accelerating climate change across mountain ecosystems. Jackson cautioned that ongoing global conflicts, including the Iran war, risk diverting attention from what she described as “the greatest problem of climate change”. “As the war causes immense damage – fatalities, injuries and destruction – we are putting even more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere as troops are mobilised and huge aircraft carriers and planes move troops around,” she said. “There may also be additional pollution that will affect glacier melt.”

Himalayas’ glacier loss threatens 2 billion people in ‘greatest problem of climate change’

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Conflicts, such as the Iran war, are diverting global attention away from the ecological crisis, scientists warn

Conflicts, such as the Iran war, are diverting global attention away from the ecological crisis, scientists warn