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Julian Ryall

Tokyo shrouded in midday darkness, trains derailed, roofs collapsing under volcanic ash: this is the vision Japan’s Cabinet Office laid before the public this week in a chilling simulation of a catastrophic eruption of Mount Fuji.
The dramatic computer-generated film, unveiled on Tuesday to mark Volcano Disaster Prevention Day, is the first of its kind issued by the government. Officials say it is designed to sharpen public awareness of the risks posed by the 111 volcanoes that the Meteorological Agency currently classifies as active.
In the simulation, clouds of smoke and ash erupt from Fuji’s 3,776-metre (12,400-foot) summit, spewing boulders skyward and sending rivers of lava down its slopes. Within two days, the capital – 100km (62 miles) to the east – is blanketed in ash.
The film warns that just 3cm (1.2 inches) of ash could paralyse Tokyo, clogging engines, obscuring traffic signals and collapsing roofs. Air conditioning units would seize, aircraft would be grounded, and industry across the region would stall. With some 43 million people living in the metropolitan area, the video warns that the effect on public health would be severe.


But not all experts are convinced. Kimiro Meguro, a professor of disaster mitigation engineering at the University of Tokyo, described the simulation as “alarmist”.
“The simulation that is being shown would only ever happen under special conditions and this is not a high-probability event,” he told This Week in Asia.
“It shows a worst-case scenario that is built on the assumption of what would happen in the event of an eruption of Mount Fuji.”
Meguro suggested the film reflected official anxiety about being caught off guard, as happened during the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami. “Maybe the person in charge of disaster management for volcanoes was worried that they would be accused of not providing the public with enough warnings or information,” he said.

A government report issued in March highlighted the potential scale of the threat, estimating that a major eruption could eject 490 million cubic metres (17.3 billion cubic feet) of ash.
Western Tokyo suburbs could be buried beneath 30cm (12 inches) of volcanic material, while central Tokyo, Yokohama and Kawasaki might see around 3cm (1.2 inches). The report advised residents to remain indoors unless ash accumulation threatened to collapse buildings, a “level four” disaster under official classification.
Long dormant
Despite the dire imagery, there is no evidence that Mount Fuji is close to erupting.
The volcano has been dormant since 1707, when the Hoei eruption followed a series of earthquakes. Contemporary reports describe Edo – modern-day Tokyo – blanketed in ash, with ruined farmland leading to widespread famine.

Japan, sitting on the volatile Pacific “Ring of Fire”, is one of the most seismically and volcanically active nations in the world.
Alerts are currently in place for 13 volcanoes, including a level-three warning for Sakurajima, the 1,117-metre (3,660-foot) volcano in southern Kyushu that has been almost constantly erupting since 1955.
Level-three alerts, advising the public not to approach a volcano, are also in place for Mount Kirishima, on the border of Miyazaki and Kagoshima prefectures, Kuchinoerabu Island off southern Kyushu and Nishinoshima in the Ogasawara Islands south of Tokyo.
The Meteorological Agency’s warning system peaks at level five, which would require immediate evacuation.
Volcano Disaster Prevention Day is observed on August 26, commemorating Japan’s first volcano observatory, established in 1911 on Mount Asama.


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Japan warns public of catastrophic Mount Fuji eruption with ‘alarmist’ simulation

A screenshot of the video released by Japan’s Cabinet Office showing a simulate eruption of Mount Fuji. Photo: Japan’s Cabinet Office

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Smoke billows from Shinmoedake, part of the Mount Kirishima cluster of volcanoes in southwestern Japan, on June 28. Photo: Kyodo

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An empty railway station is seen in Fujisawa city, Kanagawa prefecture, on Wednesday due to the tsunami warning. Photo: AFP

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Buildings collapse and trains derail in the new CGI video showing Mount Fuji erupting, released to mark Volcano Disaster Prevention Day


Buildings collapse and trains derail in the new CGI video showing Mount Fuji erupting, released to mark Volcano Disaster Prevention Day.


Japan warns public of catastrophic Mount Fuji eruption with ‘alarmist’ simulation

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Buildings collapse and trains derail in the new CGI video showing Mount Fuji erupting, released to mark Volcano Disaster Prevention Day

Buildings collapse and trains derail in the new CGI video showing Mount Fuji erupting, released to mark Volcano Disaster Prevention Day