Asian Angle | Two months after Trump-Kim summit, North Korea hasn’t changed at all

Despite what looked like a breakthrough following the North’s participation in the Winter Games in South Korea and the improbable Singapore meeting, Pyongyang increasingly looks like its old self

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North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Photo: AFP

Published: 7:00pm, 10 Aug 2018Updated: 7:03pm, 10 Aug 2018

After peaking two months ago with the Singapore Summit, hopes for a peaceful resolution of the long-running North Korea nuclear crisis have sunk into the mire of political and historical obstacles. Before 2018, outsiders knew North Korea as a failing and anachronistic political and economic system that had repeatedly cheated its seemingly long-overdue death through a foreign policy of intimidation, stubbornness, playing adversaries against each other, and occasional flashes of conciliation that usually proved insincere.

Despite what looked like an emerging breakthrough based on an unexpected participation in the Winter Olympic Games in South Korea and the improbable meeting between leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump, North Korea increasingly looks like its old self.

If peace is coming, nobody told North Korean defectors

Before this year, Pyongyang was in dire straits. The US government was openly considering a military attack on its missile and nuclear bomb infrastructure. The country’s relationship with China was severely strained; Kim had not even met Xi Jinping. China was enforcing the economic sanctions against North Korea with unprecedented diligence, causing noticeable hardship. Although South Korea had a new government that might be willing to restore economic cooperation with the North, the spike in tensions over Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programmes was an obstacle to a rapprochement with Seoul.

Kim reversed this situation by making a single substantive concession: he stopped the nuclear explosions and long-range missiles tests that are detectable by the outside world. He sold this to Washington and Seoul as evidence of his claimed willingness to denuclearise. The cost to Kim of making this concession is minimal. He can resume testing anytime if negotiations with Washington break down. Domestically, he gave himself political cover by explaining to his countrymen in January that no further testing is necessary to establish the country’s credibility as a nuclear weapon state.

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The pause in testing combined with his stated willingness to denuclearise opened a flood of benefits for Kim. The danger of US attack is averted, at least for now. Beijing has relaxed sanctions enforcement and rehabilitated its relations with Kim. Seoul is moving to resume the flow of economic benefits to North Korea. And erstwhile international pariah Kim is suddenly in demand for meetings with foreign leaders.

Mike Pompeo with North Korea's Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho in Singapore last week. Photo: AP

What about the US agenda? While US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo continues to insist that the United States demands “final, fully verified denuclearisation” and that he sees progress towards that goal, Pyongyang has yet to either explain its own interpretation of what “denuclearisation” would entail or to provide the US government with a list of nuclear and missile facilities and stockpiles.

The other time Singapore gave North Korea a taste of America

In other words, the hard bargaining has not even begun. Outside analysts of North Korea generally expect Pyongyang will not give Washington a full or accurate list and will not allow unfettered inspections by foreigners.