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Why the Trump-Kim meeting hinges on China

The US president stole international headlines when he accepted an invitation to meet the North Korean leader, but Beijing’s role as guarantor will be the difference as to whether history is truly made

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Many are sceptical anything will come out of Donald Trump’s meeting with Kim Jong-un. Photo: AP
Donald Trump ’s decision to accept an invitation to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-un stunned the world.
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After months of rhetoric between the two leaders that bordered on the juvenile, with the US president boasting about bigger buttons and calling Kim the “little rocket man”, Trump’s policy shifted 180 degrees overnight.

What key players want from Trump-Kim talks (and what they’ll get)

Trump is a showman at heart, so maybe the desire to make headlines shouldn’t be a surprise. What would be a surprise is if both sides enter the meeting with their true intentions on the table – and follow through on any promises made. If that happens, China has a unique role to play as guarantor of the outcome.

The White House has made clear the meeting – which is supposed to happen by the end of May – will not go ahead unless Kim shows he is serious about denuclearisation.

Further muddying the situation, Pyongyang has yet to confirm any invitation as the message has come through a South Korean envoy. It would seem Kim wants to secure economic and diplomatic incentives before any reduction in his nuclear capabilities.

Is China to blame for the North Korea crisis? The answer depends on who you ask

Of course, the summit could go ahead if the right conditions are met. South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who has made peace with the North his top goal, has said Pyongyang could start by freezing its nuclear development and eventually begin to dismantle its “treasured sword” – the North’s nickname for its nuclear weapons. But the US says denuclearisation in such a phased way is unacceptable.

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Pyongyang’s history of not living up to its promises – or, more bluntly, its outright deception – also has some US officials concerned Kim will prove to be like his father, Kim Jong-il, and his grandfather, Kim Il-sung, who failed to honour agreements with Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush.

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