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Maria Siow

Dissent voiced in an ongoing inquiry into Australia’s most ambitious nuclear submarine pact has laid bare growing uncertainty over US commitment, amid questions about the clarity of Canberra’s explanation of the Aukus deal to citizens.
Under the trilateral security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States, Canberra will get eight nuclear-powered submarines at an estimated cost of up to A$368 billion (US$266 billion).
Three used Virginia-class nuclear submarines will initially be bought from the US and delivered from between 2032 and 2038. Australia will also work with the UK to build the new Aukus submarines locally, with the first delivery expected in the early 2040s.
At an Aukus public inquiry in Canberra last week, one of Australia’s leading submarine experts, retired Rear Admiral Peter Briggs, called the plan “flawed and undeliverable”.
Australia scrapped an agreement for France to supply Attack-class submarines in favour of the Aukus sale in 2021. Briggs said the French deal was the better option, arguing that US shipyards, already struggling to meet the domestic demands, could not deliver the promised nuclear-powered submarines on time.

At the same inquiry, former civil servants dealing with national security Michael Keating and Jon Stanford said joining Aukus meant Australia was significantly more likely to be dragged into a conflict with China and potentially targeted with nuclear weapons. Australia had “sacrificed considerable sovereignty” to the US while leaving the country vulnerable without a guaranteed security safety net, they said.
Canberra has said that, apart from protecting Australia’s vast ocean trade routes, acquiring such capability is also aimed at countering China’s growing military presence in the region.
The 12-week inquiry, which ended on Thursday, was crowdfunded as Canberra refused to hold a formal parliamentary inquiry. It was led by former ministers, parliamentarians, senior officials, public servants and retired military officers.
Demand for the inquiry showed the lack of transparency and public debate surrounding Aukus, according to Manoj Harjani, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
“Uncertainty regarding the US’ commitment to Aukus, particularly since Donald Trump took office, has been a thorny issue,” he said. “This will not be the last time you hear about a review of Aukus. It is a substantial commitment in more than monetary terms and deserves the level of scrutiny it is receiving.”
Questions about US commitment to the pact stem mainly from the slow pace of production in US shipyards and American policy reviews questioning if transferring high-end military assets abroad aligns strictly with US interests.
Explanation needed
Troy Lee-Brown, a research fellow at the University of Western Australia’s Defence and Security Institute, said with the strategic environment in the region deteriorating, Canberra should do a better job in explaining Aukus to Australians.
Aukus, he said, was delivering results. The Submarine Rotational Force-West, an Aukus initiative where Australia will host a rotational presence of UK and US nuclear submarines at HMAS Stirling near Perth in Western Australia, will start operations next year.
“But the timeline of the Aukus project is measured over multiple decades, with the eventual delivery of SSN Aukus from the early 2040s,” he said.

The inquiry was long overdue, said Nishank Motwani, senior fellow at The Alliance Futures Institute think tank in Washington. Since Aukus was launched in September 2021, there has not been a public debate about the pact and its wide-ranging effects on the economy, workforce, waste management and use of taxpayers’ money.
“If one word captures why the Aukus public inquiry is taking place now, it would be ‘frustration’,” he said, adding that government information so far had been “top-down, drip-fed, and highly controlled”.
One reason why Canberra did not want to open Aukus up to public debate was the fear of backlash, he said. A public inquiry would “expose [the government] to hard questions, legitimate concerns, and difficult choices they are unprepared to meet because in some ways, Aukus is billed as ‘too big to fail’”.
The inquiry attracted significant interest across Australia. Over 700 written submissions were made and all the public hearings were reportedly packed. Last week’s hearings in Canberra even had to be extended by a day due to strong interest.
“It will be hard to ignore the momentum the inquiry has generated,” Motwani said. In the longer term, it could harm future governments if they dismissed the inquiry and its recommendations.
“It exposes the reality that the inquiry is doing the job the government should have done all along: explaining Aukus to the Australian people in a trusting, transparent and accountable manner,” he said.

This was an opportunity for the government to learn about public thinking on Aukus, without having to put political stakes on the line, he said, adding that “sidestepping or dismissing the inquiry’s findings would be costly for the government, as these represent real voices it has not yet reached”.
In a written statement to the inquiry on August 31, Motwani recommended the appointment of an Aukus special envoy with decision-making power.
“The appointment must sit within the national security apparatus, reporting directly to the prime minister, with an explicit mandate to drive Pillar I and Pillar II delivery against defined timelines, public accountability measures, and counter threats,” he wrote.
Pillar I is the delivery of the nuclear-powered submarines to Australia while the second pillar refers to the sharing of advanced technology and capabilities among the three allies.
The inquiry, Harjani said, should be seen as an example of the challenges facing defence policymaking regarding major acquisitions.
“Who should ultimately decide, and whose opinions should be given weight to?”


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Under the Australia-UK-US security pact, Canberra will get eight nuclear-powered submarines at an estimated cost of up to US$266 billion


Under the Australia-UK-US security pact, Canberra will get eight nuclear-powered submarines at an estimated cost of up to US$266 billion.


Australians question US commitment to Aukus submarine deal in crowdfunded inquiry

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Under the Australia-UK-US security pact, Canberra will get eight nuclear-powered submarines at an estimated cost of up to US$266 billion

Under the Australia-UK-US security pact, Canberra will get eight nuclear-powered submarines at an estimated cost of up to US$266 billion