Prabowo-Putin payoff: can bond between Indonesian, Russian leaders translate to gains?

The rapport between Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, was evident when the two met during the 11th Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) in Vladivostok last week. “My profound apologies for missing this important event due to urgent matters I needed to attend to back home but I’m now here to repay my debt,” Prabowo told Putin on Wednesday, referring to a missed invitation earlier to be the guest of honour at Russia’s National Day celebration on June 12. Putin in turn referenced their “continued personal contact” and “strategic nature of the relationship between Russia and Indonesia”. The EEF is an annual event to encourage investment and development in Russia’s far east. Delegations from some 50 countries such as China and Myanmar also attended, with Prabowo and Mongolian Prime Minister Nyam-Osoryn Uchral the two highest-ranked officials representing their countries. But bonhomie aside, observers are divided on whether the Prabowo-Putin camaraderie will result in tangible results. “Prabowo has raised Indonesia’s international profile abroad by undertaking various foreign visits, pushing to advance our interests,” said Bawono Kumoro, a researcher at Jakarta-based pollster Indikator Politik. “Good relations with Russia are proof that our president can work with all sides across the geopolitical divide, and are in line with his motto, ‘One thousand friends are too few, one enemy is too many.’” Prabowo’s visit showed the opportunity for bilateral growth, said Dipo Satria Ramli, an economist at the Centre of Reform on Economics. “In theory, the trade structure between Indonesia and Russia is complementary and its underdeveloped state means there are a lot of areas that could be worked on,” he said. Trade between Indonesia and Russia last year was valued at US$5 billion, a mere 1 per cent of Jakarta’s total foreign trade. Last December, Indonesia signed a free-trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union – which includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia. It was ratified by the Indonesian parliament and signed into law by Prabowo earlier in July. During a panel discussion at the EEF, Prabowo was asked why he had signed the deal, despite what he claimed to be “overwhelming pressure from Washington”. He insisted on Indonesia’s neutrality when dealing with great powers. “We don’t belong to any military alliances and economically we are also independent,” he said, stressing his desire to work with all countries. “This was very clear from day one. In all our negotiations with our partners, they know this from the beginning.” Prabowo’s friendship with Putin “may be testing the limits of our non-alignment policy but as long as he doesn’t commit to any military alliance, it’s no violation”, Bawono said. ‘Budding relationship’ Radityo Dharmaputra, a foreign policy analyst and lecturer at the Centre for European and Eurasian Studies at Surabaya’s Airlangga University, however, challenged the strategic value of attending events such as the EEF. “It’s relatively unimportant and more about Russia’s interest rather than Indonesia’s.” Prabowo might have been star-struck by Putin, he suggested. “Prabowo appears to view Putin as one of his references of what a great and strong leader should be and Putin knows this.” This, he added, would explain why Putin had extended several personal invitations to Prabowo. The Indonesian president first visited Russia for the June 2025 St Petersburg International Economic Forum. Both leaders met again in Moscow five months later for bilateral talks. In April, Prabowo reprised his visit to the Russian capital, where he signed an agreement to buy 150 million barrels of Russian oil. “Their budding relationship will be a driving factor for stronger Indonesia-Russia relations, but the problem lies with implementation,” Radityo said, pointing to the oil refinery project in Tuban, East Java as an example. The refinery, worth US$24 billion in investment, was set up in 2017 as a joint venture between Indonesia’s PT Pertamina and Russia’s Rosneft. It is projected to be able to refine 300,000 barrels of crude oil a day when completed. Its status, however, is currently in limbo due to delayed funding from Rosneft as a result of ongoing Western sanctions against the Russian energy sector. “One possible avenue for closer cooperation would be education and cultural exchange,” Radityo said, noting that Russia had started a significant roll-out of scholarships for Indonesians and signed strategic partnerships with Indonesian universities. “Russia has also been growing its soft power in Indonesia through working with our local and youth NGOs, including sponsoring exchange trips to Russia.” Indonesia-Russia trade ties, though, are insignificant, according to Radityo. “Russia wants Indonesia to buy more of their fertilisers but Indonesia can switch to other producers, such as China. They also want to sell more wheat to us but they are hardly the only option,” he said. “Even in the military sphere, Orruda [the joint exercise between the Indonesian and Russian navies] is puny compared to the Super Garuda Shield.” While Prabowo was rubbing shoulders with Putin in Vladivostok, around 5,000 troops from Indonesia, the US and 13 other nations were engaged in the joint military exercise Super Garuda Shield 2026 on Indonesian soil and waters. The simultaneous events reflected a somewhat “incoherent” foreign policy by Jakarta, he said. “If Prabowo’s focus was financial and economic investment, he would go to China and the Middle East more often, rather than Russia, France or the UK,” Radityo said.

Prabowo-Putin payoff: can bond between Indonesian, Russian leaders translate to gains?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Good relations with Russia show ‘our president can work with all sides across the geopolitical divide,’ an analyst says

Good relations with Russia show ‘our president can work with all sides across the geopolitical divide,’ an analyst says