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Biman Mukherji

Russia is looking into a solution for a problem that has become hard for India to ignore: how to keep oil and other strategic goods moving when sanctions, war and maritime chokepoints threaten the world’s busiest energy routes.
Moscow’s proposal for a direct rail link to India through Central and South Asia remains exploratory, but analysts say it points to a wider scramble by major powers to build trade corridors beyond the reach of the Strait of Hormuz, the Bosphorus and Western pressure.
The idea was floated by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin in comments published by state news agency Tass on August 6, as he discussed the need to expand Russia’s transport options and secure long-term financing for infrastructure construction.
Khusnullin said a railway route to the Indian Ocean “should also be explored”, warning that risks around the Bosphorus and Hormuz could require alternatives through Turkmenistan, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
“Any options providing access to India are acceptable,” he said.

For India, which imports close to 90 per cent of its crude oil and has become one of the biggest buyers of Russian barrels since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, the proposal is less an immediate fix than a sign of how energy security is being redrawn by conflict.
India’s dependence on Russian crude surged to a record in July, with shipments from the country accounting for 50.83 per cent of imports by the world’s third-biggest oil buyer and consumer, or 2.47 million barrels per day, Reuters reported on Friday, citing trade data.
That concentration has made Russia a crucial buffer for India, giving New Delhi discounted barrels and diplomatic room to resist Western pressure, but it has also exposed the limits of relying too heavily on any one supplier or route.
“The events of the past few months have clearly strengthened the case for having more routes. India has had to deal with disrupted Gulf flows through Hormuz while, at the same time, Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have created another layer of uncertainty around Russian supply,” Priya Walia, vice-president for commodity markets for oil at Rystad Energy, told This Week in Asia in written responses.
“I would see it primarily as a strategic diversification route rather than a solution to India’s crude supply problem.”
Russia accounted for less than 3 per cent of India’s oil imports before 2022, before it started offering discounted sales following its war with Ukraine.
The threat of US sanctions prompted Indian refiners to reduce purchases from Russia earlier this year, but disruption in supplies from the Middle East due to the start of the US-Iran war in late February has prompted fresh imports by India since then.
Both China and India have been among the biggest buyers of Russia’s crude oil.
“The logic behind the Russian proposal is understandable. But the proposal itself is still very preliminary. Russia has talked about possible routes through Turkmenistan, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan, without providing a detailed alignment, capacity, cost, or construction timetable,” Walia said.
There was no indication yet that this would be a dedicated crude oil corridor, she added.

India’s overall crude oil imports from all countries combined are around 5 million barrels per day, while its imports from Russia peak at around 2.5 million to 2.8 million barrels per day, according to trade executives.
Walia said oil tankers and pipelines were designed to move oil at a large scale and “rail is much more likely to provide an additional source of flexibility” rather than replace seaborne crude.
“So, I would call the proposal useful optionality but not a game changer for India’s crude balance at least at this stage. More specific conclusions can be drawn once the project progresses from the preliminary discussion stage to the formal approval stage,” she said.
Delhi has repeatedly and explicitly asserted its strategic autonomy regarding oil purchases from Russia.
The ongoing conflict and shipping blockades in the Middle East have significantly affected India’s oil and gas imports, driving up costs and widening a trade deficit.
“Russian crude does offer a significant buffer against direct Hormuz dependence, rather than a complete solution to Hormuz risk. The proposed rail link could add another layer of optionality, but given the scale of India’s oil consumption, I would still see it as a supplementary route,” Walia said.
India and Russia share deep and robust ties that date back to the Soviet era.
However, Walia cautioned that India would not want to replace dependence on the Middle East and the oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz with reliance on another single source.
She cited the “geopolitical and logistical risks” that Moscow faced over the Ukraine conflict, such as repeated attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, which added “another layer of uncertainty to Russian supply”.
However, the conflict has also created an unexpected area of cooperation between Russia and India.
Moscow last week received its first shipment of petrol from India to offset domestic fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian drone strikes on its oil refineries, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday, citing ship-tracking data.

Still, India’s purchases of Russian oil in the near term face uncertainty after the US Senate passed legislation that would allow tariffs of up to 100 per cent to be imposed on imports from the world’s five biggest buyers of Russian oil or natural gas, including China and India. The bill is not yet law as it must clear the House of Representatives and be signed by the president.
Uday Chandra, a professor of political science at Ashoka University, said US import tariffs of up to 100 per cent could deter India and other countries’ purchases of Russian oil.
“However, the logic of the rail project goes beyond oil,” he said. “Paradoxically, the greater the threat of sanctions and maritime disruption, the stronger the incentives for Russia, India, China, Iran and Central Asian states to construct alternative transport and payment networks that reduce exposure to the West.”
Chandra said a Russia-India railway would be strategically significant as it would give Delhi something it currently lacked: connectivity to Eurasia.
The rail proposal, he added, would be part of a wider geopolitical process of fragmentation, “which entails cracking the singular infrastructure of US-led globalisation of the past generation”.


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Moscow is eyeing a direct rail link to India, reflecting a scramble by major powers to build trade corridors beyond Hormuz, analysts say


Moscow is eyeing a direct rail link to India, reflecting a scramble by major powers to build trade corridors beyond Hormuz, analysts say.


Will Russia’s plan for overland oil route be ‘game changer’ for India’s energy security?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Moscow is eyeing a direct rail link to India, reflecting a scramble by major powers to build trade corridors beyond Hormuz, analysts say

Moscow is eyeing a direct rail link to India, reflecting a scramble by major powers to build trade corridors beyond Hormuz, analysts say