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Park Chan-kyong

South Korea may have lost Canada’s multibillion-dollar submarine order, but analysts say its close-run contest with Germany has handed Seoul a different prize: proof that it can challenge one of the world’s traditional undersea warfare powers on a stage watched closely by defence buyers.
Canada chose Germany’s Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) as the preferred bidder for a programme worth about US$40 billion to build up to 12 diesel-electric submarines, along with long-term maintenance and support.
“I am pleased to announce that Canada has selected TKMS as the preferred supplier for Canada’s patrol submarine project,” Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Monday.
If negotiations with TKMS failed, Canada reserved the right to go to “reserve supplier” Hanwha Ocean and begin negotiations with the South Korean consortium, he added.
Military experts said South Korea’s performance had reinforced its growing reputation as a serious contender in the global submarine market, with the close contest suggesting its bid was competitive even as broader geopolitical considerations appeared to favour Germany.

Moon Keun-sik, an adjunct professor at Hanyang University’s Graduate School of Public Policy, said South Korea showed a competitive edge. “With regard to performance and cost, Canadian authorities expressed satisfaction,” the naval expert said.
However, those factors accounted for only about 20 per cent of Ottawa’s evaluation. The remaining 80 per cent reflected industrial and economic benefits, as well as diplomatic and political considerations, he added.
So Ottawa’s decision was not a reflection of South Korea’s competence, Moon said. “By competing closely with Germany, a traditional submarine powerhouse, South Korea showcased its capabilities to the world.”
As part of Seoul’s sales campaign, the South Korean navy’s Dosan Ahn Chang-ho submarine completed a historic 14,000km (8,700-mile) trans-Pacific voyage to Canadian Forces Base Esquimalt in Victoria, British Columbia, in May.
The outcome, though disappointing, should not be viewed as a major setback for South Korea’s long-term maritime defence export ambitions, said Yang Seung-yoon, a research fellow at Eugene Investment & Securities.
“Opportunities will eventually open up for Korea as it continues knocking on the door. We should use this as an opportunity to strengthen the competitiveness of Korea’s defence exports through international joint development and local production.”


Carney praised both bidders for submitting “extraordinarily thoughtful, comprehensive and cooperative proposals”.
“As dynamic, reliable, like-minded democracies, Germany, Norway and the Republic of Korea are each critical strategic partners to Canada in this new world,” he said. “I understand the disappointment, particularly given the strength of the bid, and these are tough decisions.”
The decision would not affect broader ties with Seoul, he said, as there were “many other areas” where the two countries were cooperating. “We are moving forward with the relationship because there are so many things we can do together.”
Raising ‘K-defence’ profile
Carney revealed that he had discussed the submarine project during a telephone conversation with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung over the weekend.
Following the announcement, Lee sought to frame the result positively, saying South Korea had shown its competitiveness by matching one of the world’s leading submarine builders.
“Challenges inevitably bring both successes and disappointments,” he wrote on social media on Tuesday. “Today’s experience will serve as a valuable foundation for further advancing our technology and strengthening our competitiveness.”
He thanked workers in the arms industry for helping transform it into “one of global stature” and for raising the international profile of “K-defence”.
“South Korea’s defence industry has established itself as a new engine of growth attracting global attention and as a key pillar of the nation’s competitiveness,” he wrote.

Seoul has set an ambitious goal of becoming one of the world’s four largest arms exporters, as demand grows for high-performance weapons offered at competitive prices amid rising geopolitical tensions. Last year, South Korea secured US$15.4 billion in overseas defence orders, a 60.4 per cent increase from the previous year.
Lee pledged continued government support for the industry. “From research and development to export support and stronger international cooperation, the government will do everything in its power to ensure that Korean submarines will one day help safeguard peace and security across the world’s oceans,” he wrote.
Hanwha Ocean said it had done everything possible during the competition but was unable to overcome what it described as “the barrier” created by South Korea’s status as a non-Nato member. “We are determined to find a path that will enable Korea’s maritime defence industry to make an even greater leap forward in the global market,” it said.
According to Moon, Canada’s decision reflected not only technical considerations but also the importance it attached to Nato relationships and interoperability. Nevertheless, he described Hanwha Ocean’s appearance on the shortlist as a significant achievement.
“This experience will strengthen South Korea’s chances in future submarine competitions in Greece, Saudi Arabia, the Philippines and South America,” he said.

It all boils down to how the submarines would be put to use, according to Yang Uk, a senior research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies.
“Canada wants submarines capable of year-round operations beneath Arctic ice while also operating in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Those capabilities are central to monitoring maritime threats and asserting Canadian sovereignty in the Arctic.”
South Korea’s KSS-III Batch-II and Germany’s TKMS Type 212CD were fundamentally different concepts of conventional submarines, he said. “The KSS-III Batch-II is a large, long-range blue-water strike platform equipped with vertical launch cells, whereas the Type 212CD is a specialised, ultra-stealthy regional hunter-killer optimised for under-ice operations.”
The South Korean submarines were not designed for the operational requirements Canada had in mind, Yang said. “But Canada apparently wanted South Korea’s bid to strengthen its negotiating position with the German supplier.”


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A bottle of champagne is smashed on the hull of South Korea’s first 3,600 tonne-class naval submarine during a ceremony at the Hanwha Ocean dockyard on October 22, 2025. Photo: Yonhap/EPA

South Korea’s Dosan Ahn Chang-ho and Daejeon frigate are docked at Canadian Forces Base Esquimalt in British Columbia on May 25. Photo: The Canadian Press/AP

Prime Minister Mark Carney announces that Canada has picked Germany’s TKMS to build 12 submarines for its navy at HMC Dockyard in Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada, on Monday. Photo: Reuters

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Canada Prime Minister Mark Carney at HMC Dockyard in Halifax on Monday. Photo: The Canadian Press via AP

Canada is getting a scaled-up version of the Type 212A diesel-electric attack submarine made by Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems. Photo: US Navy via Reuters

A Republic of Korea Navy KSS-III submarine, docked in Esquimalt, British Columbia in May. Photo: The Canadian Press via AP

Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney at HMC Dockyard in Halifax, Nova Scotia on Monday. Photo: Reuters

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Coming a close second to Germany shows ‘K-defence’ can hold its own on the world stage, military experts say


Coming a close second to Germany shows ‘K-defence’ can hold its own on the world stage, military experts say.


South Korea loses Canada submarine deal but cements top-tier defence status

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Coming a close second to Germany shows ‘K-defence’ can hold its own on the world stage, military experts say

Coming a close second to Germany shows ‘K-defence’ can hold its own on the world stage, military experts say