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Maria Siow

A sweeping review by the United States of the landmark Aukus submarine pact could usher in stricter conditions on technology transfers, cost-sharing and fresh concessions from Australia, raising questions about the future of the trilateral deal.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had privately assured Australian Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles that the pact would not be terminated, The Washington Post reported earlier this month, citing sources familiar with the discussions.
The Aukus agreement, unveiled in 2021 by Australia, Britain and the United States to counter China’s expanding naval influence, would enable Canberra to acquire at least eight nuclear-powered Virginia-class submarines from the 2030s.
Valued at US$240 billion, the deal would elevate Australia into the select ranks of nations with nuclear-powered underwater strike capability.
Washington launched a review of Aukus in June, seeking to ensure its alignment with US President Donald Trump’s “America first” agenda, prompting concerns that his administration might abandon or significantly alter the deal.

But Rubio’s assurances suggest the review is more likely to result in recalibration – including tighter safeguards on technology transfer and cost-sharing – than outright cancellation, according to Troy Lee-Brown, a research fellow at the University of Western Australia’s Defence and Security Institute.
“The ‘America first’ rhetoric will focus on ensuring US industry benefits and that making Virginia hulls available to Australia does not significantly delay US Navy requirements,” Lee-Brown said.
He added that there was bipartisan consensus in Washington recognising Aukus as central to Indo-Pacific deterrence, making a reversal of the deal unlikely.
“The broader strategic logic of reinforcing allied undersea capability in the Indo-Pacific remains compelling enough to outweigh the Trump administration’s protectionist impulses,” he said.
Lee-Brown suggested that the more positive tone inferred in Rubio’s comments could reflect Washington’s acknowledgement of Australia’s substantial financial commitment to Aukus infrastructure.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced on Sunday a A$12 billion (US$8 billion) investment in a defence hub near Perth to build Aukus submarines and support US and British nuclear-powered vessels.
The Henderson Defence Precinct in southern Perth is also set to serve as a maintenance and contingency docking hub for Australia’s future submarine fleet.

While outright cancellation appears off the table, Manoj Harjani, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, expects the review to “streamline” Aukus, particularly targeting “Pillar 2” of the agreement.
Aukus Pillar 2 aims to accelerate the development and deployment of advanced technologies such as quantum science, cyber capabilities and electronic warfare. Harjani said it would likely face criticism for being “a laundry list that lacks focus and prioritised funding”.
The review might also provide the impetus for Trump to seek concessions from Australia, particularly regarding how the submarines Canberra bought would serve US strategic goals in the region, Harjani said.
“The hard reality is that American submarine construction facilities are unable to meet current demand and the backlog for its own fleet is significant,” Harjani said.
US submarine production has been hampered by ageing infrastructure, a shortage of skilled workers and supply chain bottlenecks.
However, Harjani said Australia’s US$500 million payment to the US earlier this year – and a subsequent US$525 million instalment in July – could help Canberra secure Washington’s continued support.

Despite Rubio’s reassurances, analysts remain cautious about his influence over the Aukus review, which is being led by the US Department of Defence, which Trump wants renamed as the Department of War.
“Outside voices including from the State Department are less influential,” said Nishank Motwani, a senior fellow and director for alliance strategy at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute think tank.
The US official overseeing the review, Elbridge Colby, was publicly critical of Aukus prior to his appointment.
Motwani said that US lawmakers had felt “frustrated and excluded” from the process, even though key backers demonstrated bipartisan support for the deal through signed statements and visits to Australia.
In July, the Republican and Democratic heads of a congressional committee on strategic competition with China wrote to US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth, reiterating their support for Aukus.
And just last month, a US congressional delegation attended the Australian American Leadership Dialogue in Adelaide to reinforce Australia’s status as a valued ally.
During the visit, Congressman Joe Courtney insisted there was no justification for abandoning the submarine deal, rejecting suggestions that Canberra was not fully committed to the alliance.


Motwani said Albanese’s plan for a new defence hub would “please” Washington as it demonstrated Australia’s willingness to invest in defence
It would also deter critics from saying Canberra was “jeopardising” the Aukus pact, he said.
“Albanese has calculated that his commitment to pour in billions in new funding would go far and keep Aukus afloat, making him a political winner,” Motwani said.
However, he warned that the Trump administration’s transactional approach could mean that commitments count for less than “how the numbers are looking at any given point”.
“This means that any deal struck is renegotiable and if more can be squeezed from allies then it is worth getting more, regardless of what may have been agreed before,” Motwani added.


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US Navy officers stand aboard a Virginia-class fast-attack submarine docked at HMAS Stirling in Western Australia on February 26. Australia is set to spend US$7.9 billion to upgrade shipyard facilities for a future fleet of nuclear-powered submarines. Photo: AFP

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A Virginia-class nuclear-powered attack submarine of the type Australia is set to acquire from the early 2030s. Photo: US Navy

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has reportedly assured Australian Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles that the Aukus pact would not be terminated. Photo: AFP

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A Virginia-class nuclear-powered attack submarine, a type of which Australia is set to acquire from the early 2030s under the Aukus pact.  Photo: US Navy

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A Virginia-class nuclear-powered attack submarine. Australia is set to acquire these vessels from the early 2030s.  Photo: US Navy

Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles says Australia has transferred the first US$500 million payment to the US for the Aukus submarine deal. Photo: Reuters

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Australia’s huge financial commitment to the Aukus pact may work in its favour, but Trump’s deal-making approach means anything is possible


Australia’s huge financial commitment to the Aukus pact may work in its favour, but Trump’s deal-making approach means anything is possible.


Aukus faces an ‘America first’ review. Will Trump’s agenda scupper the deal?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Australia’s huge financial commitment to the Aukus pact may work in its favour, but Trump’s deal-making approach means anything is possible

Australia’s huge financial commitment to the Aukus pact may work in its favour, but Trump’s deal-making approach means anything is possible