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South China Sea: Analysis

South China Sea: Analysis
The latest news, analysis and opinion on South China Sea: Analysis. In-depth analysis, industry insights and expert opinion.
People in Hanoi protest over China’s 2012 announcement that it will open nine oil and gas lots in waters in the South China Sea. Photo: AP
South China Sea

Opinion | Vietnam wants a South China Sea dispute resolution pact with teeth, not more politics

Asean member states and China are a step closer to forming a Code of Conduct for the South China Sea after years of operating a toothless diplomatic pact that has failed to reduce tensions.

South China Sea

Opinion | What a stranded ship in South China Sea says about China-Philippine ties

South China Sea

How the US clouds China-Asean progress in South China Sea

South China Sea

Opinion | How China can turn its ‘blue cradle’ into a bridge with Southeast Asia

A jointly governed, tiered South China Sea ocean data framework would transform knowledge of a contested sea into stewardship of a shared one.

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Illustration: Victor Sanjinez
South China Sea

Opinion | Path to South China Sea stability doesn’t run through US, UK or the EU

The statement by 14 countries is a geopolitical exercise, amplifying the flawed 2016 Hague arbitral ruling to try to drive a wedge between China and its neighbours.

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South China Sea

As Iran war comes to a close, is US pulling warships back to the west Pacific?

US Defence Department changes name of Indo-Pacific Command back to US Pacific Command, suggesting new focus.

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China-Philippines relations

China sanctions Philippine defence chief Gilberto Teodoro

Chinese foreign ministry says Teodoro is banned from entering China because of his ‘erroneous remarks’ on the country.

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Beijing accuses Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro of making “erroneous remarks” about China. Photo: AFP
South China Sea

Opinion | Without restraint, Beijing and Manila can’t deliver the South China Sea code

Much hinges on how China and the Philippines manage the distrust between their frontline maritime forces.

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South China Sea

Opinion | What Scarborough nature reserve plan means for South China Sea

Done badly, it would exclude and exacerbate mistrust. Done well, it could pave the way for a model of conservation in contested waters.

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Malaysia

Malaysia’s oil and gas future finds itself adrift in the South China Sea

Decades of underinvestment have left Malaysia’s armed forces ill-prepared to protect its vital oil and gas reserves.

Illustration: Mario Rivera
South China Sea

Opinion | How Beijing and other South China Sea claimants can see eye to eye

The perception gap stems from both historical roots and legal interpretations. A joint, fact-based, truly collaborative process could be a start.

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Illustration: Craig Stephens
War and conflict

Opinion | US attack on Iran shakes East Asia’s faith in non-proliferation norms

Amid the bombing of Iran, the region finds itself navigating a contested, multipolar nuclear order fraught with instability.

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China-Philippines relations

Opinion | With 50 years of history, Manila and Beijing should do better diplomacy

Stop allowing South China Sea spat to poison the waters when there are in fact many areas of potential cooperation for mutual benefit.

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Diplomacy

Opinion | Strategic clarity can calm the waters between China and Asean

Beijing and Southeast Asian capitals can build confidence by upholding local autonomy over foreign agendas and keeping each other accountable.

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The Japanese warship Bungo docks at Ream Naval Base in Preah Sihanouk province, Cambodia, on April 19. Photo: EPA-EFE/ Ream Naval Base Handout
China-Philippines relations

Why flags on Sandy Cay symbolise latest flashpoint in South China Sea dispute

Experts interpret Manila’s counter flag-raising as an effort to resist Beijing’s creeping jurisdiction.

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In this photo provided by the National Task Force West Philippine Sea (NTF-WPS), Philippine inter-agency members which included Philippine Navy, Philippine Coast Guard and Philippine National Police - Maritime Group, hold the Philippine flag as they visit Sandy Cay 2 in the South China Sea on April 27. Photo: AP
South China Sea

Opinion | Beijing’s approach to South China Sea tensions: reduce now, resolve later

While focusing on economic links, China is open to negotiating with rival claimants as long as actors outside the region aren’t involved.

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US-China relations

As Trump’s tariffs hit US allies hard, will China make inroads?

From the EU to Australia, the West’s geopolitical partnerships have fractured, but suspicions about Beijing persist.

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South China Sea

Opinion | Xi’s approach to South China Sea tensions: reduce now, resolve later

While focusing on economic links, China is open to negotiating with rival claimants as long as actors outside the region aren’t involved.

A China Coast Guard ship seen from a Philippine coastguard vessel in the South China Sea. Photo: AFP
South China Sea

South China Sea: is Beijing’s code of conduct ‘milestone’ progress or a tactic?

In all likelihood, the negotiations will be kicked further down the road just as in the past, analyst says.

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South China Sea

South China Sea: poor diplomacy and deep mistrust may spark crisis, expert warns

Region is in ‘stable tension’, analyst tells Boao Forum. ‘We already have so many actors in the region … It’s so crowded, this place’.

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South China Sea

Beijing ready with fresh tactics if Manila launches new South China Sea case: expert

On sidelines of Munich Security Conference, Chinese maritime analyst Wu Shicun says Beijing has new tools since Hague ruling in 2016.

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Wu Shicun, founder of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, says China will have a different strategy and tools if Manila launches another arbitration case regarding Beijing’s actions in the South China Sea. Photo: Xinhua
South China Sea

Opinion | How Trump could upend South China Sea calculations all round

Trump’s transactional diplomacy risks complicating the hedging of stakeholders from Philippines to Vietnam, and adding unpredictability for China.

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Illustration: Craig Stephens
South China Sea

South China Sea conflict risks to rise in Trump’s second term, academic forecasts

The year ahead is likely to see Washington take a more aggressive approach to Beijing, while other disputes in the waterway continue.

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South China Sea

Global Impact | Waves continue in South China Sea as China warns against ‘provocative actions’

In this week’s issue of the Global Impact newsletter, we recap the latest in the South China Sea.

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South China Sea

Who is winning the fight for the South China Sea’s resources?

Claimants are competing for fish, oil and gas amid unresolved maritime boundaries and differing interpretations of law.

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A diplomatic note regarding Luconia Shoals in the South China Sea has drawn attention to nations’ resource rights in the disputed waterway. Photo: Handout
South China Sea

Why Philippine warning of South China Sea war may not be cause for serious alarm

Manila’s defence chief said towing away a grounded ship would be an act of war, but one analyst said that is ‘not a good option’ for China.

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The BRP Sierra Madre was grounded on the reef in 1999. Photo: Reuters
South China Sea

Can mini-lateral pacts help Manila navigate the South China Sea’s choppy waters?

The Philippines should focus on security ties with neighbours rather than hoping that Asean can secure a Code of Conduct, analysts say.

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South China Sea

What is Beijing’s 9-dash line in the South China Sea and what does it mean?

The cartographer’s mark was first drawn on official maps 80 years ago but has been the subject of numerous interpretations.

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