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Macroscope

Macroscope
Daily insight on the hottest topics in the global economy, central bank policymaking and international trade flows, putting developments in their perspective for a China-oriented audience.
Pedestrians pass a foreign currency indicator board showing the rate of the US dollar against the Japanese yen in Tokyo on August 3. The yen surged against the US dollar, reaching its strongest level in about three months after Japanese and US monetary authorities conducted a coordinated intervention to buy the yen for the first time in 28 years. Photo: EPA
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Behind the AI stock market bubble lies a weak yen

The tech stock boom, financed in large part by the yen carry trade, is at risk of collapse if the currency strengthens.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | US efforts to prop up the yen risk doing more harm than good

Japan

Macroscope | Takaichi’s embrace of industrial policy won’t make Japan great again

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China economy

Macroscope | Upper arm of China’s K-shaped economy both a blessing and a curse

China’s two-speed economy stems from the shift to new growth engines but the export boom it has created is doing little for jobs or consumption.

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Yutong electric double-decker buses for export to the UK are driven onto a car carrier at Yantai Port in Shandong province on July 27. Photo: AFP
Climate change

Macroscope | Who pays when overheated roads melt and rails buckle?

Costs are mounting from the damage caused by extreme weather on roads, railways, bridges and other basic infrastructure.

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Stocks

Macroscope | Emerging markets have a concentration problem. Investors will have to live with it

Investors nervous about the dominance of South Korean and Taiwanese chipmakers can’t afford to ignore them.

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Japan

Macroscope | Why Japan should be able to weather a US market crash

Successive Japanese governments have spent decades building financial infrastructure that other Asian countries can emulate.

A woman walks in front of an electronic stock board showing Japan’s Nikkei 225 index at a securities firm in Tokyo on July 15. Photo: AP
US Federal Reserve

Macroscope | Silence isn’t golden for a world looking to Kevin Warsh’s Fed

While forward guidance often proved counterproductive, it is the US central bank’s job to inform markets about the outlook for monetary policy, not the other way round.

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Japan

Macroscope | 3 reasons behind the Japanese yen’s persistent decline

The continued slide in the yen has raised concern, but what happens in the bond market will determine whether the bearishness extends far beyond Japan.

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Hong Kong economy

Macroscope | How AI is both a boon and a bane for Hong Kong’s stock market

The AI trade has shown gaps in Hong Kong’s stock market, but the share sale boom suggests it is set to capitalise on Beijing’s AI ambitions.

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A monitor shows the level of the Hang Seng Index in Central on June 26. Photo: Edmond So
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Can Andy Burnham fix Britain’s essential services and debt problem?

The favourite to become Britain’s next prime minister is the latest figure promoting greater state control of important national assets.

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Newly elected Makerfield MP and former Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham (centre) walks at Manchester Piccadilly station in Manchester on June 22, as he leaves for London. Photo: Reuters
India

Macroscope | Is investors’ love affair with India ending?

Investors have flocked to tech-heavy markets, but looming US interest rate rises and volatility fears could see India’s star shine again.

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Japan

Macroscope | Why Japan’s proposal for G7 critical mineral stockpiles is a bad idea

Tokyo’s overtures towards the G7 assume that China is a threat to be countered with economic or security measures.

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US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | Investors focused on Hormuz miss bigger threat to world economy

As energy security becomes a more potent force, stress tests for countries vulnerable to supply disruptions are likely to become more severe.

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Students clash with police officers during a protest against a fuel price hike in Jakarta on June 12. Photo: EPA
Stocks

Macroscope | Moment of truth is coming for the AI stock boom

Tech barons are seeking to raise outrageous sums before the balloon goes up. If it does, where will portfolio investment go?

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SpaceX initial public offering signage in the Morgan Stanley building in New York on June 9. Photo: Reuters
United States

Macroscope | Investors expecting a US interest rate rise could be in for a surprise

Rising bond yields are doing some of the Fed’s work, as are investor fears over the US central bank’s independence under Kevin Warsh.

Japan

Macroscope | The problem with Japan’s bid to strengthen energy security, supply chains

By competing rather than dovetailing with the Belt and Road Initiative, the joint project with the World Bank reflects increasing regional fragmentation.

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South Korea

Macroscope | How the AI chip boom made South Korea a victim of its own success

While tech giants are driving South Korea’s stock market higher, the country’s currency is struggling and foreign investors are pulling out.

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Currency dealers celebrate in front of a screen showing South Korea’s benchmark stock index during a ceremony celebrating it breaking 7,000 points at the Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul on May 6. Photo: AFP
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Why bond yields are going up everywhere

Unlike stock markets, bond markets are signalling a more cognisant and mature appreciation of the state of government finances.

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Stocks

Macroscope | Why commodities could be the next big thing in markets

Investors’ desire for firms with ‘heavy assets, low obsolescence’ has turned the spotlight on commodities, a sector starved of capital.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | Can Europe and Asia break the grip of US bond markets?

Too much money is chasing too few investment opportunities. Unified bond markets in Europe and Asia could offer safe options for savings to flow into.

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A man walks past an electronic board displaying 10-year Japanese government bonds, an index of long-term interest rates in the Tokyo bond market and the foreign exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar along a street in Tokyo on May 18. Photo: AFP
Bonds

Macroscope | Bond market sell-off raises stakes for Asia’s tech-driven economies

Stakes are high for Asia’s tech-driven economies amid a global sell-off in bond markets that signals investor fears.

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A currency trader talks on the phone near a screen showing the Korea Composite Stock Price Index and the foreign exchange rate between the US dollar and South Korean won at the foreign exchange dealing room of the Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul on May 20. Photo: AP
Stocks

Macroscope | Global stock markets are bubbling along on unjustified optimism

Hype around AI and some tech companies has inflated stock prices and left investors ebullient despite the rising risk of a market crash.

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2026 Xi-Trump summits

Macroscope | Trump-Xi summit puts US vulnerabilities on display

China weaponising rare earths turned the tables on Trump, showing how unprepared Western governments and firms were for a full trade war.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | Mini-crises sparked by the Iran war may add up to a big collapse

From energy, inflation and trade to slowing global growth and investment uncertainty, these mini-crises have the makings of a massive crisis.

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The United Arab Emirates said on April 28 it would leave Opec and Opec+ on May 1. Photo: EPA
US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | How the AI boom is helping Asia weather the Iran war energy shock

The war in Iran might as well be over for investors as positive sentiment, strong corporate earnings and the AI boom lift Asian markets.

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Currency traders work near a screen showing the Korea Composite Stock Price Index and the dollar-won exchange rate at the Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul on April 29. Photo: AP
Banking & finance

Macroscope | The real reason stock markets are still flying high despite grave risks

For all the talk of market resilience, too much portfolio investment is chasing too few real-world investment areas.

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Japan

Macroscope | Why fixing Japan’s monetary policy isn’t getting any easier

The wrong kind of inflation and the effects of the war in Iran complicate the outlook for Japanese interest rates.

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