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Macroscope

Macroscope
Daily insight on the hottest topics in the global economy, central bank policymaking and international trade flows, putting developments in their perspective for a China-oriented audience.
People shop at a city market in Bangalore on June 23. India’s equity market is no longer in the world’s top five by market capitalisation, having fallen behind Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea in recent years. Photo: EPA
India

Macroscope | Is investors’ love affair with India ending?

Investors have flocked to tech-heavy markets, but looming US interest rate rises and volatility fears could see India’s star shine again.

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Japan

Macroscope | Why Japan’s proposal for G7 critical mineral stockpiles is a bad idea

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US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | Investors focused on Hormuz miss bigger threat to world economy

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Stocks

Macroscope | Moment of truth is coming for the AI stock boom

Tech barons are seeking to raise outrageous sums before the balloon goes up. If it does, where will portfolio investment go?

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SpaceX initial public offering signage in the Morgan Stanley building in New York on June 9. Photo: Reuters
United States

Macroscope | Investors expecting a US interest rate rise could be in for a surprise

Rising bond yields are doing some of the Fed’s work, as are investor fears over the US central bank’s independence under Kevin Warsh.

Japan

Macroscope | The problem with Japan’s bid to strengthen energy security, supply chains

By competing rather than dovetailing with the Belt and Road Initiative, the joint project with the World Bank reflects increasing regional fragmentation.

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South Korea

Macroscope | How the AI chip boom made South Korea a victim of its own success

While tech giants are driving South Korea’s stock market higher, the country’s currency is struggling and foreign investors are pulling out.

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Currency dealers celebrate in front of a screen showing South Korea’s benchmark stock index during a ceremony celebrating it breaking 7,000 points at the Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul on May 6. Photo: AFP
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Why bond yields are going up everywhere

Unlike stock markets, bond markets are signalling a more cognisant and mature appreciation of the state of government finances.

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Stocks

Macroscope | Why commodities could be the next big thing in markets

Investors’ desire for firms with ‘heavy assets, low obsolescence’ has turned the spotlight on commodities, a sector starved of capital.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | Can Europe and Asia break the grip of US bond markets?

Too much money is chasing too few investment opportunities. Unified bond markets in Europe and Asia could offer safe options for savings to flow into.

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A man walks past an electronic board displaying 10-year Japanese government bonds, an index of long-term interest rates in the Tokyo bond market and the foreign exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar along a street in Tokyo on May 18. Photo: AFP
Bonds

Macroscope | Bond market sell-off raises stakes for Asia’s tech-driven economies

Stakes are high for Asia’s tech-driven economies amid a global sell-off in bond markets that signals investor fears.

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A currency trader talks on the phone near a screen showing the Korea Composite Stock Price Index and the foreign exchange rate between the US dollar and South Korean won at the foreign exchange dealing room of the Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul on May 20. Photo: AP
Stocks

Macroscope | Global stock markets are bubbling along on unjustified optimism

Hype around AI and some tech companies has inflated stock prices and left investors ebullient despite the rising risk of a market crash.

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2026 Xi-Trump summits

Macroscope | Trump-Xi summit puts US vulnerabilities on display

China weaponising rare earths turned the tables on Trump, showing how unprepared Western governments and firms were for a full trade war.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | Mini-crises sparked by the Iran war may add up to a big collapse

From energy, inflation and trade to slowing global growth and investment uncertainty, these mini-crises have the makings of a massive crisis.

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The United Arab Emirates said on April 28 it would leave Opec and Opec+ on May 1. Photo: EPA
US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | How the AI boom is helping Asia weather the Iran war energy shock

The war in Iran might as well be over for investors as positive sentiment, strong corporate earnings and the AI boom lift Asian markets.

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Currency traders work near a screen showing the Korea Composite Stock Price Index and the dollar-won exchange rate at the Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul on April 29. Photo: AP
Banking & finance

Macroscope | The real reason stock markets are still flying high despite grave risks

For all the talk of market resilience, too much portfolio investment is chasing too few real-world investment areas.

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Japan

Macroscope | Why fixing Japan’s monetary policy isn’t getting any easier

The wrong kind of inflation and the effects of the war in Iran complicate the outlook for Japanese interest rates.

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Japan

Macroscope | Will Japan’s corporate bond initiative signal a shift in Asia financing?

Japanese authorities are promoting the domestic corporate bond market as an alternative for firms seeking funding without losing control.

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A man stands in front of an electronic board displaying the closing numbers of the Nikkei Stock Average on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, in Tokyo, on April 2. Photo: AFP
India

Macroscope | How the rupee’s fall shows India’s struggle to overcome vulnerabilities

While India’s economy is stronger than it was in previous sell-offs, lingering weaknesses are coming to the fore and driving new tensions.

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China economy

Macroscope | Why investors should beware China safe haven narrative amid Iran crisis

While there is reason for optimism, the ceasefire in Iran remains tenuous and the return of inflation is not the kind China wants to see.

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Central banks

Macroscope | Asian central banks largely powerless in face of Iran war energy shock

Central banks cannot pump oil into the global economy in the same way they can flood the financial system with liquidity.

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Workers change the price of fuel at a petrol station in Manila on March 17. Photo: AFP
US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | Iran war: Why a Trump climbdown won’t save Asia’s economies

Markets might be convinced Trump will chicken out again, but that won’t reassure Asian nations scrambling to deal with energy shortages.

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A delivery driver transports liquid petroleum gas (LPG) cylinders in Amritsar, Punjab state, in India on March 24. Two more Indian-flagged tankers carrying LPG passed through the Strait of Hormuz on March 23, marking a fresh set of exceptions in the chokepoint disrupted by the Middle East war. Photo: AFP
US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | Trump hasn’t counted on financial blowback from his war with Iran

As Washington fights a war with global economic ramifications, allies may soon begin to reassess their financial support of US coffers.

US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | Iran war disruption just one of many threats to global markets

The danger from the Iran war cannot be assessed in isolation. Rather, it is one of several major vulnerabilities that could trigger a much sharper sell-off.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | How global debt is sowing the seeds of financial collapse

Markets have so far shrugged off wars and trade conflicts, but the rapid rise of already massive debt should alarm investors.

People with smartphones walk through the business district of Jakarta, Indonesia, in June 2022. Debt stocks have reached new highs across both advanced and emerging economies. Photo: NurPhoto via Getty Images
US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | Why even bullish investors can’t ignore the Iran war

Investors have grown used to brushing off geopolitical threats, but turmoil in the Middle East poses a greater risk to the global economy.

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Flames rise during a fire caused by debris from an intercepted drone at the oil refinery hub in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, on March 4. Photo: EPA
Japan

Macroscope | Why Japan should push back on Trump’s investment demands

Trump’s use of tariff threats to strong-arm foreign governments, companies and investors into funding US projects should be resisted.

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United States

Macroscope | Normalisation of Trump’s chaos can only go so far

Markets assuming Trump will chicken out and downplaying risks contribute to the normalisation of the US president’s chaotic behaviour.

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