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Macroscope

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during the morning trading on November 7. The Dow Jones Index closed up more than 1,500 points following former US president Donald Trump’s win in the 2024 presidential election, the market’s biggest jump in two years. Photo: AFP

Macroscope | Trumponomics 2.0 is fraught with danger

Investors are downplaying the impact of the protectionist and populist thrust of Trump 2.0 and have not even begun to price in the risks.

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China unveils debt-relief plan, keeps further stimulus salvo in reserve arsenal

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Macroscope | Japan’s election results could have global ramifications

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Macroscope | Harris? Trump? Whoever wins, US will be a mess after Election Day

The messier the outcome and the more protracted the dispute over who won, the bigger the threat to the US economy and global markets.

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People watch the ABC News presidential debate between Democratic presidential nominee, US Vice President Kamala Harris, and Republican presidential nominee, former US president Donald Trump, at a watch party in West Hollywood, California, on September 10. Photo: Getty Images/TNS

Macroscope | Brics summit vs IMF-World Bank meetings: the global divide is clear

The West and its institutions are deluded if they think ignoring the Global South’s demands and preserving the status quo will work.

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Macroscope | Are markets misreading China’s economic priorities?

While Chinese policymakers need to bolster confidence in stimulus efforts, investors must come to terms with updated government priorities.

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Macroscope | Why investors should be fearful when China bulls are greedy

While there are reasons for optimism with the news coming out of the Fed and Beijing, the case for caution is much stronger.

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Pedestrians walk past a sign showing the numbers of the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong on October 8, when a spectacular rally went into reverse. Photo: AFP

Macroscope | Why ‘bazooka’ stimulus alone won’t fix what ails China’s economy

Markets aside, the economy faces structural challenges. Beijing favours an unbalanced growth mix that makes it harder to boost demand.

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Macroscope | Can central banks really prevent a repeat of the Great Depression?

As we wrestle with challenges similar to those before the 1920s slump, let’s not rely on central bankers to save us from economic calamity.

Macroscope | Why Germany’s economic issues run just as deep as China’s

Beijing and Berlin need to restore confidence in their economies, but political and ideological resistance to rises in public spending runs deep.

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Shoppers browse at a street market in Alexanderplatz in Berlin on September 25. Germany’s business outlook has worsened again, reinforcing fears that Europe’s biggest economy is in recession with no quick rebound in sight. Photo: Bloomberg

Macroscope | West should thank China for kick-starting its economic growth

Instead of being grateful, the US and Europe are lashing out at China while simultaneously adopting aspects of Chinese state capitalism.

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Mario Draghi, former president of the European Central Bank, speaks during a news conference in the Berlaymont building of the European Commission in Brussels, Belgium, on September 9. Photo: Bloomberg

Macroscope | Investors still revel in blissful ignorance of US political risks

Surging stock markets show investors pay no heed to the dangerous dysfunction in US politics, but ratings agencies are ahead of the curve.

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Macroscope | Bond boom a sign of reality catching up with bubbly stock markets

The recent skittishness of equities is undermining global investors’ confidence and driving them to seek safety in bonds.

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Macroscope | China’s economy isn’t becoming Japanified, at least not yet

Despite fears China has entered have entered a ‘balance sheet recession’, the country has more tools than Japan to reflate its economy.

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A vendor tends to produce at a fresh food market in Shanghai, China, on August 7, 2023. Photo: Bloomberg

Macroscope | Gold is still the safe haven of choice in Asia and beyond

The gold price coming adrift from traditional anchors points to deep uncertainty about the world and concern for the global monetary system.

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A worker handles ABC Bullion 1kg gold bars at the ABC Refinery smelter in Sydney, Australia. The price of the precious metal has surged to a record US$2,500 for a single ounce in recent weeks. Photo: Bloomberg

Macroscope | 4 reasons it’s too early to declare victory over inflation

Central banks might have kept interest rates too high for too long. Cutting them too quickly could prove even more costly.

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Macroscope | Why risk of US recession, not China downturn, is real cause for concern

The Federal Reserve’s priority must be to ensure fears of a deeper downturn do not become self-fulfilling, especially given what the US election could unleash.

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US Fed chair says ‘the time has come’ to start cutting interest rates

The Fed’s benchmark lending rate currently sits at a 23-year high of between 5.25 and 5.50 per cent, cooling demand in the world’s largest economy ahead of November’s presidential elections.

A television station on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange broadcasts US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaking in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Photo: AFP

Macroscope | Kamala Harris’ economic plan is bad – Trump would be worse

While her economic policies are not the answer, she would not damage US democracy, undermine Federal Reserve independence and sow chaos.

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Macroscope | Why World Bank action on looming jobs crisis points to a better way

At a time when some are intent on promoting division, maybe our only hope for progress is forward-looking institutions like the World Bank.

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Macroscope | China’s overheated government bond market is the least of its worries

Concerns about the sovereign debt market shouldn’t be related to threats to financial stability but the risk of a more severe economic downturn.

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Unfinished residential buildings developed by China Evergrande Group in the outskirts of Shijiazhuang, Hebei province, on February 1. Persistent crises in the property sector and weak consumer demand are challenging China’s policymakers. Photo: Reuters

Macroscope | Japan’s stock shock signals the return of volatility – and fear

Markets are beginning to reflect and respond to a fast-growing sense of uncertainty and insecurity in the wider world.

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People look at the stock quotation board at the Tokyo Stock Exchange on August 6. After suffering its worst day in percentage terms since 1987 on Monday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 notched one of its best days and rose more than 10 per cent on Tuesday, recovering most of the ground lost. Photo: Reuters

Macroscope | Never mind Japan – US is biggest source of global market volatility

The US is not the only source of volatility in the global economy, but the size of its economy and capital markets make it the most worrying.

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Macroscope | The great stock market reset is on its way

The coming stock shakeout will force the realisation that savings are being directed into areas of fleeting gain rather than at real need.

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Macroscope | Second Trump presidency would pose little threat to King Dollar

While Donald Trump returning as president poses political risks, the US dollar is more insulated against his policies than many might think.

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Former US president and 2024 Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at the New Holland Arena in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, on July 31. Photo: AFP

Macroscope | China’s uneven recovery risks more US protectionism, even if Trump loses

China’s trade surplus and deflationary policies propping up its push for hi-tech manufacturing mean a sharp US response is likely, whoever wins the November election.

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An employee works in a specially lit area on a production line that produces printed circuit boards for export at a factory in Jiujiang, in central Jiangxi province, on July 24. The recently completed third plenum showed that the Chinese government continues to see high-end manufacturing and “new quality productive forces” as the path to economic recovery. Photo: AFP

Macroscope | Why do investors refuse to take threat of second Trump term seriously?

While investors appear sure of a Trump victory, they have yet to come to terms with the far-reaching consequences of Trump’s re-election.

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Macroscope | Political chaos in the West could force the rest to seek new leadership

Recent UK and French election results and US turmoil are creating an impression of political and societal instability.

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Macroscope
Daily insight on the hottest topics in the global economy, central bank policymaking and international trade flows, putting developments in their perspective for a China-oriented audience.
last updated:
9 September, 2024
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