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Macroscope

Macroscope
Daily insight on the hottest topics in the global economy, central bank policymaking and international trade flows, putting developments in their perspective for a China-oriented audience.
A monitor shows the level of the Hang Seng Index in Central on June 26. Photo: Edmond So
Hong Kong economy

Macroscope | How AI is both a boon and a bane for Hong Kong’s stock market

The AI trade has shown gaps in Hong Kong’s stock market, but the share sale boom suggests it is set to capitalise on Beijing’s AI ambitions.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | Can Andy Burnham fix Britain’s essential services and debt problem?

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India

Macroscope | Is investors’ love affair with India ending?

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Japan

Macroscope | Why Japan’s proposal for G7 critical mineral stockpiles is a bad idea

Tokyo’s overtures towards the G7 assume that China is a threat to be countered with economic or security measures.

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(From left) Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, US President Donald Trump, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz prepare for a group picture at Hotel Royal during the G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains, France on June 16. Photo: EPA
US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | Investors focused on Hormuz miss bigger threat to world economy

As energy security becomes a more potent force, stress tests for countries vulnerable to supply disruptions are likely to become more severe.

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Stocks

Macroscope | Moment of truth is coming for the AI stock boom

Tech barons are seeking to raise outrageous sums before the balloon goes up. If it does, where will portfolio investment go?

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United States

Macroscope | Investors expecting a US interest rate rise could be in for a surprise

Rising bond yields are doing some of the Fed’s work, as are investor fears over the US central bank’s independence under Kevin Warsh.

US President Donald Trump (right) enjoys a light moment during the swearing-in ceremony for US Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh, in the East Room of the White House in Washington, on May 22. Photo: Reuters
Japan

Macroscope | The problem with Japan’s bid to strengthen energy security, supply chains

By competing rather than dovetailing with the Belt and Road Initiative, the joint project with the World Bank reflects increasing regional fragmentation.

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South Korea

Macroscope | How the AI chip boom made South Korea a victim of its own success

While tech giants are driving South Korea’s stock market higher, the country’s currency is struggling and foreign investors are pulling out.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | Why bond yields are going up everywhere

Unlike stock markets, bond markets are signalling a more cognisant and mature appreciation of the state of government finances.

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A woman walks past anti-US graffiti painted on the wall of Tehran University in Iran, on April 25. The war has pushed up inflation and added to the financial burden of already highly indebted countries. Photo: AP
Stocks

Macroscope | Why commodities could be the next big thing in markets

Investors’ desire for firms with ‘heavy assets, low obsolescence’ has turned the spotlight on commodities, a sector starved of capital.

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The Jeffrey Energy Centre coal-fired power plant is seen at sunset near Emmett, Kansas, on January 3. Investors’ appetite for asset-heavy alternatives to tech stocks has helped the energy sector perform nearly as well as tech in the past year. Photo: AP
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Can Europe and Asia break the grip of US bond markets?

Too much money is chasing too few investment opportunities. Unified bond markets in Europe and Asia could offer safe options for savings to flow into.

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Bonds

Macroscope | Bond market sell-off raises stakes for Asia’s tech-driven economies

Stakes are high for Asia’s tech-driven economies amid a global sell-off in bond markets that signals investor fears.

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Stocks

Macroscope | Global stock markets are bubbling along on unjustified optimism

Hype around AI and some tech companies has inflated stock prices and left investors ebullient despite the rising risk of a market crash.

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Currency dealers celebrate in front of a screen showing South Korea’s benchmark stock index during a ceremony celebrating it breaking 7,000 points at the Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul on May 6. The market value of South Korea’s Samsung Electronics smashed past US$1 trillion for the first time on May 6 as the firm rides an AI chip boom that has sent Seoul’s Kospi stock index to record highs. Photo: AFP
2026 Xi-Trump summits

Macroscope | Trump-Xi summit puts US vulnerabilities on display

China weaponising rare earths turned the tables on Trump, showing how unprepared Western governments and firms were for a full trade war.

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Children greet Chinese President Xi Jinping (second right) and US President Donald Trump during a welcome ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on May 14. Photo: Reuters
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Mini-crises sparked by the Iran war may add up to a big collapse

From energy, inflation and trade to slowing global growth and investment uncertainty, these mini-crises have the makings of a massive crisis.

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US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | How the AI boom is helping Asia weather the Iran war energy shock

The war in Iran might as well be over for investors as positive sentiment, strong corporate earnings and the AI boom lift Asian markets.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | The real reason stock markets are still flying high despite grave risks

For all the talk of market resilience, too much portfolio investment is chasing too few real-world investment areas.

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A trader works, as a screen broadcasts a press conference by US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell following a rate announcement, on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on March 18. Photo: Reuters
Japan

Macroscope | Why fixing Japan’s monetary policy isn’t getting any easier

The wrong kind of inflation and the effects of the war in Iran complicate the outlook for Japanese interest rates.

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Japan

Macroscope | Will Japan’s corporate bond initiative signal a shift in Asia financing?

Japanese authorities are promoting the domestic corporate bond market as an alternative for firms seeking funding without losing control.

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India

Macroscope | How the rupee’s fall shows India’s struggle to overcome vulnerabilities

While India’s economy is stronger than it was in previous sell-offs, lingering weaknesses are coming to the fore and driving new tensions.

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A man counts Indian rupee notes at a roadside currency exchange stall in the old quarters of Delhi on February 2. Photo: Reuters
China economy

Macroscope | Why investors should beware China safe haven narrative amid Iran crisis

While there is reason for optimism, the ceasefire in Iran remains tenuous and the return of inflation is not the kind China wants to see.

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An oil tanker unloads crude oil at the port in Qingdao, in eastern Shandong province, on April 7. Photo: AFP
Central banks

Macroscope | Asian central banks largely powerless in face of Iran war energy shock

Central banks cannot pump oil into the global economy in the same way they can flood the financial system with liquidity.

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US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | Iran war: Why a Trump climbdown won’t save Asia’s economies

Markets might be convinced Trump will chicken out again, but that won’t reassure Asian nations scrambling to deal with energy shortages.

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US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | Trump hasn’t counted on financial blowback from his war with Iran

As Washington fights a war with global economic ramifications, allies may soon begin to reassess their financial support of US coffers.

Iranians work as smoke rises from an oil refinery struck in Tehran, on March 8, amid joint Israeli-US attacks. Photo: EPA
US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | Iran war disruption just one of many threats to global markets

The danger from the Iran war cannot be assessed in isolation. Rather, it is one of several major vulnerabilities that could trigger a much sharper sell-off.

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People queue to buy petrol in Hanoi on March 10 after Vietnam’s trade ministry called on local businesses to encourage their employees to work from home to save fuel amid disruptions in supply and price surges triggered by the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. Photo: Reuters
Banking & finance

Macroscope | How global debt is sowing the seeds of financial collapse

Markets have so far shrugged off wars and trade conflicts, but the rapid rise of already massive debt should alarm investors.

US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | Why even bullish investors can’t ignore the Iran war

Investors have grown used to brushing off geopolitical threats, but turmoil in the Middle East poses a greater risk to the global economy.

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