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Macroscope

Macroscope
Daily insight on the hottest topics in the global economy, central bank policymaking and international trade flows, putting developments in their perspective for a China-oriented audience.
last updated:
9 September, 2024
A worker takes a coin from a gold tree consisting of 2,024 Vienna Philharmonic coins displayed in Munich on December 3. Based on the current gold price, the tree, which is almost 3 metres tall, has a value of about 5.3 million euros (US$5.5 million). Photo: EPA-EFE
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Cryptocurrency craze no match for gold’s enduring allure

Leaders and policymakers should not be swayed by calls to pivot to cryptocurrencies when gold is as strong as ever.

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China economy

Macroscope | Never mind stimulus, rebalancing is China’s real economic challenge

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US-China relations

Macroscope | As liberal international order crumbles, war could be on the cards

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China economy

Macroscope | Fears of China’s ‘Japanification’ are overblown

While low yields might be a symptom of Japanification, evidence shows bond markets are on China’s side.

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A woman walks past the headquarters of the People’s Bank of China in Beijing. Photo: Reuters
United States

Macroscope | China won’t be the only Asian economy in Trump’s sights

Expect trade tensions to intensify dramatically at a time when many Asian economies, including China, are relying on exports to boost growth.

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Hong Kong housing

The View | Can Hong Kong’s property market weather the Trump shock?

Hong Kong’s real estate industry cannot seem to catch a break, though the outlook is not all doom and gloom if you know where to look.

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United States

Macroscope | Trump’s tariff weapon may amount to little in a changed world

US-China decoupling and trade diversification across the Asia-Pacific mean Trump’s tariffs are no longer capable of mass destruction.

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Donald Trump is reflected in the bullet-proof glass as he finishes speaking at a campaign rally in Lititz, Pennsylvania, on November 3. Photo: AP
United States

Macroscope | Trumponomics 2.0 is fraught with danger

Investors are downplaying the impact of the protectionist and populist thrust of Trump 2.0 and have not even begun to price in the risks.

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China’s economic stimulus

China unveils debt-relief plan, keeps further stimulus salvo in reserve arsenal

Week-long NPC Standing Committee meeting ends with mostly forward-looking plans to right China’s economic ship.

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Japan

Macroscope | Japan’s election results could have global ramifications

Tokyo’s power vacuum, and questions over Japan’s policies and its relationship with the US under Harris or Trump, could have deeper economic impacts.

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Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba at a media interview at the headquarters of his ruling Liberal Democratic Party in Tokyo on October 27. Photo: Kyodo
US presidential election 2024

Macroscope | Harris? Trump? Whoever wins, US will be a mess after Election Day

The messier the outcome and the more protracted the dispute over who won, the bigger the threat to the US economy and global markets.

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People watch the ABC News presidential debate between Democratic presidential nominee, US Vice President Kamala Harris, and Republican presidential nominee, former US president Donald Trump, at a watch party in West Hollywood, California, on September 10. Photo: Getty Images/TNS
Brics

Macroscope | Brics summit vs IMF-World Bank meetings: the global divide is clear

The West and its institutions are deluded if they think ignoring the Global South’s demands and preserving the status quo will work.

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China economy

Macroscope | Are markets misreading China’s economic priorities?

While Chinese policymakers need to bolster confidence in stimulus efforts, investors must come to terms with updated government priorities.

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Stocks

Macroscope | Why investors should be fearful when China bulls are greedy

While there are reasons for optimism with the news coming out of the Fed and Beijing, the case for caution is much stronger.

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Pedestrians walk past a sign showing the numbers of the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong on October 8, when a spectacular rally went into reverse. Photo: AFP
China economy

Macroscope | Why ‘bazooka’ stimulus alone won’t fix what ails China’s economy

Markets aside, the economy faces structural challenges. Beijing favours an unbalanced growth mix that makes it harder to boost demand.

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Shoppers on Nanjing East Road in Shanghai on October 2. While the stimulus measures announced by the government have lifted market sentiment, there is scepticism about whether they will translate to the real economy. Photographer: Bloomberg
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Can central banks really prevent a repeat of the Great Depression?

As we wrestle with challenges similar to those before the 1920s slump, let’s not rely on central bankers to save us from economic calamity.

China economy

Macroscope | Why Germany’s economic issues run just as deep as China’s

Beijing and Berlin need to restore confidence in their economies, but political and ideological resistance to rises in public spending runs deep.

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US-China trade war

Macroscope | West should thank China for kick-starting its economic growth

Instead of being grateful, the US and Europe are lashing out at China while simultaneously adopting aspects of Chinese state capitalism.

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Mario Draghi, former president of the European Central Bank, speaks during a news conference in the Berlaymont building of the European Commission in Brussels, Belgium, on September 9. Photo: Bloomberg
US presidential election 2024

Macroscope | Investors still revel in blissful ignorance of US political risks

Surging stock markets show investors pay no heed to the dangerous dysfunction in US politics, but ratings agencies are ahead of the curve.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | Bond boom a sign of reality catching up with bubbly stock markets

The recent skittishness of equities is undermining global investors’ confidence and driving them to seek safety in bonds.

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China economy

Macroscope | China’s economy isn’t becoming Japanified, at least not yet

Despite fears China has entered have entered a ‘balance sheet recession’, the country has more tools than Japan to reflate its economy.

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A vendor tends to produce at a fresh food market in Shanghai, China, on August 7, 2023. Photo: Bloomberg
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Gold is still the safe haven of choice in Asia and beyond

The gold price coming adrift from traditional anchors points to deep uncertainty about the world and concern for the global monetary system.

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A worker handles ABC Bullion 1kg gold bars at the ABC Refinery smelter in Sydney, Australia. The price of the precious metal has surged to a record US$2,500 for a single ounce in recent weeks. Photo: Bloomberg
Banking & finance

Macroscope | 4 reasons it’s too early to declare victory over inflation

Central banks might have kept interest rates too high for too long. Cutting them too quickly could prove even more costly.

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United States

Macroscope | Why risk of US recession, not China downturn, is real cause for concern

The Federal Reserve’s priority must be to ensure fears of a deeper downturn do not become self-fulfilling, especially given what the US election could unleash.

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United States

US Fed chair says ‘the time has come’ to start cutting interest rates

The Fed’s benchmark lending rate currently sits at a 23-year high of between 5.25 and 5.50 per cent, cooling demand in the world’s largest economy ahead of November’s presidential elections.

A television station on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange broadcasts US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaking in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Photo: AFP
US presidential election 2024

Macroscope | Kamala Harris’ economic plan is bad – Trump would be worse

While her economic policies are not the answer, she would not damage US democracy, undermine Federal Reserve independence and sow chaos.

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US Vice-President Kamala Harris outlines her economic plan in a speech in Raleigh, North Carolina, on August 16. Photo: EPA-EFE
Jobs

Macroscope | Why World Bank action on looming jobs crisis points to a better way

At a time when some are intent on promoting division, maybe our only hope for progress is forward-looking institutions like the World Bank.

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China economy

Macroscope | China’s overheated government bond market is the least of its worries

Concerns about the sovereign debt market shouldn’t be related to threats to financial stability but the risk of a more severe economic downturn.

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