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Macroscope

Macroscope
Daily insight on the hottest topics in the global economy, central bank policymaking and international trade flows, putting developments in their perspective for a China-oriented audience.
A miniature model of the White House is seen at the Omni Grove Park Hotel during the Group of 20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ meeting in Asheville, North Carolina, on August 31. Finance leaders from the G20 major economies opened talks at the US-hosted gathering, with the Trump administration seeking to escalate economic pressure on Iran amid a renewed exchange of fire with Tehran. Photo: AFP
G20

Macroscope | As US leadership proves unreliable, Asia needs to start focusing on itself

Asian policymakers should start laying the groundwork for a new organisation that has this region’s interests at its core.

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Stocks

Macroscope | Why the global economy and markets continue to defy doomsayers

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United States

Macroscope | Trump’s Treasury threat will only accelerate the dollar’s decline

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Global monetary policy

Macroscope | Asia is not on the edge of a new 1997-style financial crisis

While risks to Asia’s financial stability exist, they have nothing to do with the policy and structural weaknesses behind the 1997 crisis.

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A South Korean dealer looks at an electronic signboard showing the benchmark Kospi index at Hana Bank in Seoul, South Korea, on September 2. Photo: EPA
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Global debt crisis will mean higher taxes – or worse

Bond markets are in revolt in response to rising government debt, meaning urgent change is needed in how national priorities are financed.

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United States

Macroscope | US markets are paying the price for Trump’s reckless policies

From surging debt to trade wars with Canada, self-harm has been the main consequence of Trump’s reckless policy decisions.

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Hong Kong economy

Macroscope | What’s so bad about a planned Hong Kong economy? Just look at Singapore

Dismissing economic planning out of hand is a mistake. The market does not always get it right.

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Downtown Singapore. A partially planned economy like Singapore’s is a workable alternative to leaving things entirely to the private sector. Photo: Shutterstock
Japan

Macroscope | Japan isn’t the only Asian economy giving bond markets a headache

Bond markets are nervous about central banks’ ability to contain inflation as South Korea, Indonesia and the Philippines face similar pressures.

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Artificial intelligence

Macroscope | Why are global leaders asleep to risks of uncritical AI adoption?

Much like their drowsiness on climate change, world leaders have been lulled to sleep by promises of AI’s benefits to efficiency and profits.

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Artificial intelligence

Macroscope | Could China be a hedge against risk of AI investment boom going bust?

The more ‘DeepSeek moments’ there are in China, the likelier markets are to doubt the AI-related revenues and financing of US hyperscalers.

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A customer looks at a board with the menu at AGI Bar in Beijing’s Zhongguancun district on August 9. AI users are shopping around as US giants face fierce competition from Chinese rivals -- and in Beijing’s tech district, customers at an AI-themed bar can even plug into DeepSeek for free. Photo: AFP
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Behind the AI stock market bubble lies a weak yen

The tech stock boom, financed in large part by the yen carry trade, is at risk of collapse if the currency strengthens.

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Pedestrians pass a foreign currency indicator board showing the rate of the US dollar against the Japanese yen in Tokyo on August 3. The yen surged against the US dollar, reaching its strongest level in about three months after Japanese and US monetary authorities conducted a coordinated intervention to buy the yen for the first time in 28 years. Photo: EPA
Banking & finance

Macroscope | US efforts to prop up the yen risk doing more harm than good

Reversing the yen’s long-term decline ultimately rests on Japan’s ability to take its real interest rates out of negative territory – without triggering market panic.

Japan

Macroscope | Takaichi’s embrace of industrial policy won’t make Japan great again

Governments trying to pick winners is a futile pursuit in a fragmented world that needs a coordinated global development strategy.

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China economy

Macroscope | Upper arm of China’s K-shaped economy both a blessing and a curse

China’s two-speed economy stems from the shift to new growth engines but the export boom it has created is doing little for jobs or consumption.

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Yutong electric double-decker buses for export to the UK are driven onto a car carrier at Yantai Port in Shandong province on July 27. Photo: AFP
Climate change

Macroscope | Who pays when overheated roads melt and rails buckle?

Costs are mounting from the damage caused by extreme weather on roads, railways, bridges and other basic infrastructure.

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Melting asphalt, like this seen in India in the 2015 heatwave, is now increasingly common. Photo: EPA
Stocks

Macroscope | Emerging markets have a concentration problem. Investors will have to live with it

Investors nervous about the dominance of South Korean and Taiwanese chipmakers can’t afford to ignore them.

Japan

Macroscope | Why Japan should be able to weather a US market crash

Successive Japanese governments have spent decades building financial infrastructure that other Asian countries can emulate.

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US Federal Reserve

Macroscope | Silence isn’t golden for a world looking to Kevin Warsh’s Fed

While forward guidance often proved counterproductive, it is the US central bank’s job to inform markets about the outlook for monetary policy, not the other way round.

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A television displays Kevin Warsh, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, speaking at a press conference as traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on June 17. Warsh spoke about the Federal Reserve decision to keep interest rates unchanged for the fourth time this year. Photo: AFP
Japan

Macroscope | 3 reasons behind the Japanese yen’s persistent decline

The continued slide in the yen has raised concern, but what happens in the bond market will determine whether the bearishness extends far beyond Japan.

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Hong Kong economy

Macroscope | How AI is both a boon and a bane for Hong Kong’s stock market

The AI trade has shown gaps in Hong Kong’s stock market, but the share sale boom suggests it is set to capitalise on Beijing’s AI ambitions.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | Can Andy Burnham fix Britain’s essential services and debt problem?

The favourite to become Britain’s next prime minister is the latest figure promoting greater state control of important national assets.

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Newly elected Makerfield MP and former Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham (centre) walks at Manchester Piccadilly station in Manchester on June 22, as he leaves for London. Photo: Reuters
India

Macroscope | Is investors’ love affair with India ending?

Investors have flocked to tech-heavy markets, but looming US interest rate rises and volatility fears could see India’s star shine again.

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People shop at a city market in Bangalore on June 23. India’s equity market is no longer in the world’s top five by market capitalisation, having fallen behind Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea in recent years. Photo: EPA
Japan

Macroscope | Why Japan’s proposal for G7 critical mineral stockpiles is a bad idea

Tokyo’s overtures towards the G7 assume that China is a threat to be countered with economic or security measures.

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US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | Investors focused on Hormuz miss bigger threat to world economy

As energy security becomes a more potent force, stress tests for countries vulnerable to supply disruptions are likely to become more severe.

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Stocks

Macroscope | Moment of truth is coming for the AI stock boom

Tech barons are seeking to raise outrageous sums before the balloon goes up. If it does, where will portfolio investment go?

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SpaceX initial public offering signage in the Morgan Stanley building in New York on June 9. Photo: Reuters
United States

Macroscope | Investors expecting a US interest rate rise could be in for a surprise

Rising bond yields are doing some of the Fed’s work, as are investor fears over the US central bank’s independence under Kevin Warsh.

US President Donald Trump (right) enjoys a light moment during the swearing-in ceremony for US Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh, in the East Room of the White House in Washington, on May 22. Photo: Reuters
Japan

Macroscope | The problem with Japan’s bid to strengthen energy security, supply chains

By competing rather than dovetailing with the Belt and Road Initiative, the joint project with the World Bank reflects increasing regional fragmentation.

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South Korea

Macroscope | How the AI chip boom made South Korea a victim of its own success

While tech giants are driving South Korea’s stock market higher, the country’s currency is struggling and foreign investors are pulling out.

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