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Macroscope

Macroscope
Daily insight on the hottest topics in the global economy, central bank policymaking and international trade flows, putting developments in their perspective for a China-oriented audience.
A vendor displays a gold ornament at a jewellery shop in Bangalore, India, on March 19. Gold prices have been soaring worldwide, fuelled by growing risk aversion. Photo: EPA-EFE
United States

Macroscope | Why Europe and China are no safe havens from Trump’s chaos

Just because the US is no longer the darling of markets does not mean the likes of Europe or China are safe bets.

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Defence

Macroscope | How will nations pay for a Trump-induced rush to arms?

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US-China trade war

Macroscope | Trump’s trade war is giving Europe and China the nudge they need

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Donald Trump

Macroscope | What could force Trump to back down? Markets, if they wake up

Higher inflation, a sharp slowdown or both point to a much bleaker outlook for the US than markets anticipated when Trump won the election.

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Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on March 5, as Donald Trump appears on a television screen. Photo: AFP
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Are Europe and China stocks the better bet under ‘America first’?

As US stagflation fears undermine market confidence, Germany’s election outcome and China’s DeepSeek moment are shifting global expectations.

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Infrastructure

Macroscope | How can cash-strapped states pay for expensive infrastructure?

Many governments have difficulty funding basic needs while meeting global challenges like climate change. Meanwhile, businesses freeload.

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US-China trade war

Macroscope | How Trump’s new trade war could hurt US and fix what ails China

Trump’s tariffs will endanger US growth while providing Chinese authorities a chance to make a badly needed pivot towards consumption.

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Canned soup and vegetables on display in a grocery store in New York on February 11. As US President Donald Trump has now imposed a 25 per cent tariff on all steel and aluminum imports into the United States, economists and trade experts expect the price of consumer goods, which use aluminum and metal, to rise as the tariffs take effect. Photo: Getty Images
United States

Macroscope | Trump’s tariff Titanic is sailing merrily towards disaster

As US tariffs undermine other countries’ exports, their ability to import and meet the demands of supply chains will start a chain reaction.

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United States

Macroscope | How Trump is setting US reputation and creditworthiness alight

Many investors continue to downplay or rationalise the damage Trump’s trade policy does, but there are signs the honeymoon might soon end.

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Trade

Macroscope | Tariff wars show just how badly we need global trade reform

While some want a return to trade norms, not many are willing to consider if yesterday’s liberalisation craze was ever sustainable.

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Workers leave a garment factory for lunch in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, on September 21, 2022. Free trade has been a mixed economic blessing for countries in the developing world, not least those in Asia. Photo: Xinhua
US-China relations

Macroscope | Why DeepSeek disruption is the China risk Wall Street can’t ignore

A global stock market this dependent on a few huge companies in a sector whose valuations are under high scrutiny is a recipe for volatility.

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The sudden emergence of DeepSeek has jolted the tech-heavy US stock market, calling into question US supremacy in AI and the belief that the future of the technology requires ever-increasing amounts of capital spending on chips and infrastructure. Photo: Reuters
Investing

Macroscope | How Western investors’ tech obsession is hurting emerging markets

Investors must demand institutions direct their savings into developing or emerging markets where they can benefit global economic welfare.

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United States

Macroscope | Trump’s glaring policy contradictions are both a blessing and a curse

Tensions within Trump’s economic policies could lead to some being scrapped, but they could also be a further source of chaos.

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United States

Macroscope | Why bond markets refuse to hop aboard the Trump train

A sharp sell-off in bond markets despite the Fed’s easing cycle shows investors are worried about the uncertainty around Trump’s second term.

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US president-elect Donald Trump speaks at a news conference at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida, on December 16, 2024. Photo: Getty Images
China economy

Macroscope | China needs urgent action to spark consumption and avoid Japan’s fate

Structural reform is never easy, but for China even a messy pivot to consumption is better than staying cautious and not pivoting at all.

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A woman shops at a supermarket in Tengzhou in east China’s Shandong province on April 11, 2024. Photo: Xinhua
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Rising ‘United States of Eurasia’ will need a development bank to support it

From Eurasia’s vast potential to growing new development banks, emerging market economies are carrying more weight in a global economy.

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US-China trade war

Macroscope | Trump 2.0 will hit Asian economies harder

Asia’s best hope is that the transactional side of the incoming US president wins out and he strikes a grand bargain with China.

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United States

Macroscope | Trump vs the Fed: why 2025 could be the year things get ugly

The Fed is making it clear that Trump’s policies come at a price, one that he might be unwilling to pay if inflation rises more sharply.

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Donald Trump, then US president, looks on as Jerome Powell, his nominee to lead the Federal Reserve, speaks at the White House in Washington on November 2, 2017. Photo: Reuters
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Cryptocurrency craze no match for gold’s enduring allure

Leaders and policymakers should not be swayed by calls to pivot to cryptocurrencies when gold is as strong as ever.

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China economy

Macroscope | Never mind stimulus, rebalancing is China’s real economic challenge

The problem is not China’s leaders lacking the will to enact large-scale stimulus but whether it will work given the present challenges.

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US-China relations

Macroscope | As liberal international order crumbles, war could be on the cards

National leaders seem to have forgotten that autarky is incompatible with the high levels of prosperity enjoyed in the post-war era.

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US President Donald Trump prepares to sign a memorandum on intellectual property tariffs on hi-tech goods from China at the White House in Washington on March 22, 2018. Photo: Reuters
China economy

Macroscope | Fears of China’s ‘Japanification’ are overblown

While low yields might be a symptom of Japanification, evidence shows bond markets are on China’s side.

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A woman walks past the headquarters of the People’s Bank of China in Beijing. Photo: Reuters
United States

Macroscope | China won’t be the only Asian economy in Trump’s sights

Expect trade tensions to intensify dramatically at a time when many Asian economies, including China, are relying on exports to boost growth.

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Hong Kong housing

The View | Can Hong Kong’s property market weather the Trump shock?

Hong Kong’s real estate industry cannot seem to catch a break, though the outlook is not all doom and gloom if you know where to look.

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United States

Macroscope | Trump’s tariff weapon may amount to little in a changed world

US-China decoupling and trade diversification across the Asia-Pacific mean Trump’s tariffs are no longer capable of mass destruction.

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Donald Trump is reflected in the bullet-proof glass as he finishes speaking at a campaign rally in Lititz, Pennsylvania, on November 3. Photo: AP
United States

Macroscope | Trumponomics 2.0 is fraught with danger

Investors are downplaying the impact of the protectionist and populist thrust of Trump 2.0 and have not even begun to price in the risks.

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Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during the morning trading on November 7. The Dow Jones Index closed up more than 1,500 points following former US president Donald Trump’s win in the 2024 presidential election, the market’s biggest jump in two years. Photo: AFP
China’s economic stimulus

China unveils debt-relief plan, keeps further stimulus salvo in reserve arsenal

Week-long NPC Standing Committee meeting ends with mostly forward-looking plans to right China’s economic ship.

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Japan

Macroscope | Japan’s election results could have global ramifications

Tokyo’s power vacuum, and questions over Japan’s policies and its relationship with the US under Harris or Trump, could have deeper economic impacts.

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