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Macroscope

Macroscope
Daily insight on the hottest topics in the global economy, central bank policymaking and international trade flows, putting developments in their perspective for a China-oriented audience.
SpaceX initial public offering signage in the Morgan Stanley building in New York on June 9. Photo: Reuters
Stocks

Macroscope | Moment of truth is coming for the AI stock boom

Tech barons are seeking to raise outrageous sums before the balloon goes up. If it does, where will portfolio investment go?

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United States

Macroscope | Investors expecting a US interest rate rise could be in for a surprise

Japan

Macroscope | The problem with Japan’s bid to strengthen energy security, supply chains

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South Korea

Macroscope | How the AI chip boom made South Korea a victim of its own success

While tech giants are driving South Korea’s stock market higher, the country’s currency is struggling and foreign investors are pulling out.

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Currency dealers celebrate in front of a screen showing South Korea’s benchmark stock index during a ceremony celebrating it breaking 7,000 points at the Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul on May 6. Photo: AFP
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Why bond yields are going up everywhere

Unlike stock markets, bond markets are signalling a more cognisant and mature appreciation of the state of government finances.

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Stocks

Macroscope | Why commodities could be the next big thing in markets

Investors’ desire for firms with ‘heavy assets, low obsolescence’ has turned the spotlight on commodities, a sector starved of capital.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | Can Europe and Asia break the grip of US bond markets?

Too much money is chasing too few investment opportunities. Unified bond markets in Europe and Asia could offer safe options for savings to flow into.

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A man walks past an electronic board displaying 10-year Japanese government bonds, an index of long-term interest rates in the Tokyo bond market and the foreign exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar along a street in Tokyo on May 18. Photo: AFP
Bonds

Macroscope | Bond market sell-off raises stakes for Asia’s tech-driven economies

Stakes are high for Asia’s tech-driven economies amid a global sell-off in bond markets that signals investor fears.

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Stocks

Macroscope | Global stock markets are bubbling along on unjustified optimism

Hype around AI and some tech companies has inflated stock prices and left investors ebullient despite the rising risk of a market crash.

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2026 Xi-Trump summits

Macroscope | Trump-Xi summit puts US vulnerabilities on display

China weaponising rare earths turned the tables on Trump, showing how unprepared Western governments and firms were for a full trade war.

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Children greet Chinese President Xi Jinping (second right) and US President Donald Trump during a welcome ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on May 14. Photo: Reuters
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Mini-crises sparked by the Iran war may add up to a big collapse

From energy, inflation and trade to slowing global growth and investment uncertainty, these mini-crises have the makings of a massive crisis.

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The United Arab Emirates said on April 28 it would leave Opec and Opec+ on May 1. Photo: EPA
US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | How the AI boom is helping Asia weather the Iran war energy shock

The war in Iran might as well be over for investors as positive sentiment, strong corporate earnings and the AI boom lift Asian markets.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | The real reason stock markets are still flying high despite grave risks

For all the talk of market resilience, too much portfolio investment is chasing too few real-world investment areas.

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Japan

Macroscope | Why fixing Japan’s monetary policy isn’t getting any easier

The wrong kind of inflation and the effects of the war in Iran complicate the outlook for Japanese interest rates.

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Customers queue at a discount ticket shop at Akihabara Electric Town in Tokyo on March 24. The weak yen is fuelling inflation by increasing the cost of imported goods, sapping consumers’ purchasing power and making it harder to tackle Japan’s cost-of-living crisis. Photo: EPA
Japan

Macroscope | Will Japan’s corporate bond initiative signal a shift in Asia financing?

Japanese authorities are promoting the domestic corporate bond market as an alternative for firms seeking funding without losing control.

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A man stands in front of an electronic board displaying the closing numbers of the Nikkei Stock Average on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, in Tokyo, on April 2. Photo: AFP
India

Macroscope | How the rupee’s fall shows India’s struggle to overcome vulnerabilities

While India’s economy is stronger than it was in previous sell-offs, lingering weaknesses are coming to the fore and driving new tensions.

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China economy

Macroscope | Why investors should beware China safe haven narrative amid Iran crisis

While there is reason for optimism, the ceasefire in Iran remains tenuous and the return of inflation is not the kind China wants to see.

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Central banks

Macroscope | Asian central banks largely powerless in face of Iran war energy shock

Central banks cannot pump oil into the global economy in the same way they can flood the financial system with liquidity.

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Workers change the price of fuel at a petrol station in Manila on March 17. Photo: AFP
US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | Iran war: Why a Trump climbdown won’t save Asia’s economies

Markets might be convinced Trump will chicken out again, but that won’t reassure Asian nations scrambling to deal with energy shortages.

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US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | Trump hasn’t counted on financial blowback from his war with Iran

As Washington fights a war with global economic ramifications, allies may soon begin to reassess their financial support of US coffers.

US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | Iran war disruption just one of many threats to global markets

The danger from the Iran war cannot be assessed in isolation. Rather, it is one of several major vulnerabilities that could trigger a much sharper sell-off.

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People queue to buy petrol in Hanoi on March 10 after Vietnam’s trade ministry called on local businesses to encourage their employees to work from home to save fuel amid disruptions in supply and price surges triggered by the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. Photo: Reuters
Banking & finance

Macroscope | How global debt is sowing the seeds of financial collapse

Markets have so far shrugged off wars and trade conflicts, but the rapid rise of already massive debt should alarm investors.

People with smartphones walk through the business district of Jakarta, Indonesia, in June 2022. Debt stocks have reached new highs across both advanced and emerging economies. Photo: NurPhoto via Getty Images
US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | Why even bullish investors can’t ignore the Iran war

Investors have grown used to brushing off geopolitical threats, but turmoil in the Middle East poses a greater risk to the global economy.

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Japan

Macroscope | Why Japan should push back on Trump’s investment demands

Trump’s use of tariff threats to strong-arm foreign governments, companies and investors into funding US projects should be resisted.

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United States

Macroscope | Normalisation of Trump’s chaos can only go so far

Markets assuming Trump will chicken out and downplaying risks contribute to the normalisation of the US president’s chaotic behaviour.

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US President Donald Trump delivers the State of the Union address during a joint session of Congress in the House Chamber at the Capitol in Washington on February 24. Photo: TNS
Japan

Macroscope | Why the IMF is right to press Japan on its fiscal risks

The fiscal and monetary policies of advanced economies have global repercussions, and Takaichi’s expansionary fiscal agenda risks market pushback.

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Japan’s Prime Minister and leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party Sanae Takaichi speaks during an election campaign event in Tokyo on February 7. Photo: Reuters
Banking & finance

Macroscope | US dollar weakness is no game changer for a globalised yuan

Beijing will seize on the crisis to promote the yuan, but without capital account liberalisation – essential for a truly global currency – its rise will remain limited.

Banking & finance

Macroscope | How robust domestic financial markets could ease era of AI uncertainty

Attempts to develop financial centres must go beyond luring global capital and talent.

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