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Macroscope

Macroscope
Daily insight on the hottest topics in the global economy, central bank policymaking and international trade flows, putting developments in their perspective for a China-oriented audience.
last updated:
9 September, 2024
Workers refurbish an overhead pedestrian bridge in Shanghai on October 9, 2024. Photo: AP
Investing

Macroscope | How Western investors’ tech obsession is hurting emerging markets

Investors must demand institutions direct their savings into developing or emerging markets where they can benefit global economic welfare.

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United States

Macroscope | Trump’s glaring policy contradictions are both a blessing and a curse

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United States

Macroscope | Why bond markets refuse to hop aboard the Trump train

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China economy

Macroscope | China needs urgent action to spark consumption and avoid Japan’s fate

Structural reform is never easy, but for China even a messy pivot to consumption is better than staying cautious and not pivoting at all.

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A woman shops at a supermarket in Tengzhou in east China’s Shandong province on April 11, 2024. Photo: Xinhua
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Rising ‘United States of Eurasia’ will need a development bank to support it

From Eurasia’s vast potential to growing new development banks, emerging market economies are carrying more weight in a global economy.

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US-China trade war

Macroscope | Trump 2.0 will hit Asian economies harder

Asia’s best hope is that the transactional side of the incoming US president wins out and he strikes a grand bargain with China.

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United States

Macroscope | Trump vs the Fed: why 2025 could be the year things get ugly

The Fed is making it clear that Trump’s policies come at a price, one that he might be unwilling to pay if inflation rises more sharply.

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Donald Trump, then US president, looks on as Jerome Powell, his nominee to lead the Federal Reserve, speaks at the White House in Washington on November 2, 2017. Photo: Reuters
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Cryptocurrency craze no match for gold’s enduring allure

Leaders and policymakers should not be swayed by calls to pivot to cryptocurrencies when gold is as strong as ever.

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China economy

Macroscope | Never mind stimulus, rebalancing is China’s real economic challenge

The problem is not China’s leaders lacking the will to enact large-scale stimulus but whether it will work given the present challenges.

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US-China relations

Macroscope | As liberal international order crumbles, war could be on the cards

National leaders seem to have forgotten that autarky is incompatible with the high levels of prosperity enjoyed in the post-war era.

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US President Donald Trump prepares to sign a memorandum on intellectual property tariffs on hi-tech goods from China at the White House in Washington on March 22, 2018. Photo: Reuters
China economy

Macroscope | Fears of China’s ‘Japanification’ are overblown

While low yields might be a symptom of Japanification, evidence shows bond markets are on China’s side.

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A woman walks past the headquarters of the People’s Bank of China in Beijing. Photo: Reuters
United States

Macroscope | China won’t be the only Asian economy in Trump’s sights

Expect trade tensions to intensify dramatically at a time when many Asian economies, including China, are relying on exports to boost growth.

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Hong Kong housing

The View | Can Hong Kong’s property market weather the Trump shock?

Hong Kong’s real estate industry cannot seem to catch a break, though the outlook is not all doom and gloom if you know where to look.

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United States

Macroscope | Trump’s tariff weapon may amount to little in a changed world

US-China decoupling and trade diversification across the Asia-Pacific mean Trump’s tariffs are no longer capable of mass destruction.

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Donald Trump is reflected in the bullet-proof glass as he finishes speaking at a campaign rally in Lititz, Pennsylvania, on November 3. Photo: AP
United States

Macroscope | Trumponomics 2.0 is fraught with danger

Investors are downplaying the impact of the protectionist and populist thrust of Trump 2.0 and have not even begun to price in the risks.

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Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during the morning trading on November 7. The Dow Jones Index closed up more than 1,500 points following former US president Donald Trump’s win in the 2024 presidential election, the market’s biggest jump in two years. Photo: AFP
China’s economic stimulus

China unveils debt-relief plan, keeps further stimulus salvo in reserve arsenal

Week-long NPC Standing Committee meeting ends with mostly forward-looking plans to right China’s economic ship.

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Japan

Macroscope | Japan’s election results could have global ramifications

Tokyo’s power vacuum, and questions over Japan’s policies and its relationship with the US under Harris or Trump, could have deeper economic impacts.

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US presidential election 2024

Macroscope | Harris? Trump? Whoever wins, US will be a mess after Election Day

The messier the outcome and the more protracted the dispute over who won, the bigger the threat to the US economy and global markets.

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People watch the ABC News presidential debate between Democratic presidential nominee, US Vice President Kamala Harris, and Republican presidential nominee, former US president Donald Trump, at a watch party in West Hollywood, California, on September 10. Photo: Getty Images/TNS
Brics

Macroscope | Brics summit vs IMF-World Bank meetings: the global divide is clear

The West and its institutions are deluded if they think ignoring the Global South’s demands and preserving the status quo will work.

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China economy

Macroscope | Are markets misreading China’s economic priorities?

While Chinese policymakers need to bolster confidence in stimulus efforts, investors must come to terms with updated government priorities.

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Stocks

Macroscope | Why investors should be fearful when China bulls are greedy

While there are reasons for optimism with the news coming out of the Fed and Beijing, the case for caution is much stronger.

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Pedestrians walk past a sign showing the numbers of the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong on October 8, when a spectacular rally went into reverse. Photo: AFP
China economy

Macroscope | Why ‘bazooka’ stimulus alone won’t fix what ails China’s economy

Markets aside, the economy faces structural challenges. Beijing favours an unbalanced growth mix that makes it harder to boost demand.

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Shoppers on Nanjing East Road in Shanghai on October 2. While the stimulus measures announced by the government have lifted market sentiment, there is scepticism about whether they will translate to the real economy. Photographer: Bloomberg
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Can central banks really prevent a repeat of the Great Depression?

As we wrestle with challenges similar to those before the 1920s slump, let’s not rely on central bankers to save us from economic calamity.

China economy

Macroscope | Why Germany’s economic issues run just as deep as China’s

Beijing and Berlin need to restore confidence in their economies, but political and ideological resistance to rises in public spending runs deep.

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US-China trade war

Macroscope | West should thank China for kick-starting its economic growth

Instead of being grateful, the US and Europe are lashing out at China while simultaneously adopting aspects of Chinese state capitalism.

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Mario Draghi, former president of the European Central Bank, speaks during a news conference in the Berlaymont building of the European Commission in Brussels, Belgium, on September 9. Photo: Bloomberg
US presidential election 2024

Macroscope | Investors still revel in blissful ignorance of US political risks

Surging stock markets show investors pay no heed to the dangerous dysfunction in US politics, but ratings agencies are ahead of the curve.

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Republican presidential nominee and former US president Donald Trump arrives to speak at a campaign event at Nassau Coliseum in Uniondale, New York, on September 18. Photo: AP
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Bond boom a sign of reality catching up with bubbly stock markets

The recent skittishness of equities is undermining global investors’ confidence and driving them to seek safety in bonds.

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China economy

Macroscope | China’s economy isn’t becoming Japanified, at least not yet

Despite fears China has entered have entered a ‘balance sheet recession’, the country has more tools than Japan to reflate its economy.

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