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Macroscope

Macroscope
Daily insight on the hottest topics in the global economy, central bank policymaking and international trade flows, putting developments in their perspective for a China-oriented audience.
Investors wait for China’s stock market to open in front of an electronic board at a brokerage house in Beijing on September 16. Photo: Reuters
China economy

Macroscope | Wall Street’s bearish view of China stocks misses key points

Investors should look to sectors that benefit from policy support while remaining sceptical about US banks’ predictions.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | Who’s in control of Japanese monetary policy? Tokyo or Washington?

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G20

Macroscope | As US leadership proves unreliable, Asia needs to start focusing on itself

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Stocks

Macroscope | Why the global economy and markets continue to defy doomsayers

Despite rising energy prices and bond yields, economic growth has been resilient and equity markets have been performing strongly.

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A woman walks in front of an electronic stock board showing Japan’s Nikkei and New York Dow stock indexes at a securities firm in Tokyo on September 9. Photo: AP
United States

Macroscope | Trump’s Treasury threat will only accelerate the dollar’s decline

While loose talk over bond market interventions may not trigger an immediate sell-off, it will convince foreign creditors to keep trimming their Treasury exposure.

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Global monetary policy

Macroscope | Asia is not on the edge of a new 1997-style financial crisis

While risks to Asia’s financial stability exist, they have nothing to do with the policy and structural weaknesses behind the 1997 crisis.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | Global debt crisis will mean higher taxes – or worse

Bond markets are in revolt in response to rising government debt, meaning urgent change is needed in how national priorities are financed.

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A sign displays national debt at a bus stop in Washington on August 20. Similar signs have been put up across the US by the nonpartisan Peter G. Peterson Foundation. Photo: Getty Images
United States

Macroscope | US markets are paying the price for Trump’s reckless policies

From surging debt to trade wars with Canada, self-harm has been the main consequence of Trump’s reckless policy decisions.

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Hong Kong economy

Macroscope | What’s so bad about a planned Hong Kong economy? Just look at Singapore

Dismissing economic planning out of hand is a mistake. The market does not always get it right.

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Japan

Macroscope | Japan isn’t the only Asian economy giving bond markets a headache

Bond markets are nervous about central banks’ ability to contain inflation as South Korea, Indonesia and the Philippines face similar pressures.

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People walk past an electronics retail store in the Shinjuku district in Tokyo on August 17. Japan’s GDP grew at an annualised rate of 1.1 per cent in the April-June period from the previous three months. Photo: EPA
Artificial intelligence

Macroscope | Why are global leaders asleep to risks of uncritical AI adoption?

Much like their drowsiness on climate change, world leaders have been lulled to sleep by promises of AI’s benefits to efficiency and profits.

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US President Donald Trump closes his eyes before signing an executive order in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington on August 10. Photo: AFP
Artificial intelligence

Macroscope | Could China be a hedge against risk of AI investment boom going bust?

The more ‘DeepSeek moments’ there are in China, the likelier markets are to doubt the AI-related revenues and financing of US hyperscalers.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | Behind the AI stock market bubble lies a weak yen

The tech stock boom, financed in large part by the yen carry trade, is at risk of collapse if the currency strengthens.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | US efforts to prop up the yen risk doing more harm than good

Reversing the yen’s long-term decline ultimately rests on Japan’s ability to take its real interest rates out of negative territory – without triggering market panic.

A person walks past an electronic board showing Japan’s Nikkei index chart in Tokyo on August 6. At a time when the US is the main source of volatility in global markets, Washington’s participation in the Japanese currency intervention adds another layer of uncertainty. Photo: AP
Japan

Macroscope | Takaichi’s embrace of industrial policy won’t make Japan great again

Governments trying to pick winners is a futile pursuit in a fragmented world that needs a coordinated global development strategy.

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Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (left) gestures as US President Donald Trump delivers a speech in front of US Navy personnel on board the US Navy’s USS George Washington aircraft carrier at the US naval base in Yokosuka, Japan, on October 28, 2025. Photo: AFP
China economy

Macroscope | Upper arm of China’s K-shaped economy both a blessing and a curse

China’s two-speed economy stems from the shift to new growth engines but the export boom it has created is doing little for jobs or consumption.

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Climate change

Macroscope | Who pays when overheated roads melt and rails buckle?

Costs are mounting from the damage caused by extreme weather on roads, railways, bridges and other basic infrastructure.

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Stocks

Macroscope | Emerging markets have a concentration problem. Investors will have to live with it

Investors nervous about the dominance of South Korean and Taiwanese chipmakers can’t afford to ignore them.

Currency traders pass by a screen showing the Korea Composite Stock Price Index and the foreign exchange rate between US dollar and South Korean won at Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul on June 5. Photo: AP
Japan

Macroscope | Why Japan should be able to weather a US market crash

Successive Japanese governments have spent decades building financial infrastructure that other Asian countries can emulate.

US Federal Reserve

Macroscope | Silence isn’t golden for a world looking to Kevin Warsh’s Fed

While forward guidance often proved counterproductive, it is the US central bank’s job to inform markets about the outlook for monetary policy, not the other way round.

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Japan

Macroscope | 3 reasons behind the Japanese yen’s persistent decline

The continued slide in the yen has raised concern, but what happens in the bond market will determine whether the bearishness extends far beyond Japan.

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A local hunter touches a bear dummy during an emergency response drill for bear and other wildlife intrusions in Isehara, Kanagawa prefecture, Japan on July 3. Photo: AFP
Hong Kong economy

Macroscope | How AI is both a boon and a bane for Hong Kong’s stock market

The AI trade has shown gaps in Hong Kong’s stock market, but the share sale boom suggests it is set to capitalise on Beijing’s AI ambitions.

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A monitor shows the level of the Hang Seng Index in Central on June 26. Photo: Edmond So
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Can Andy Burnham fix Britain’s essential services and debt problem?

The favourite to become Britain’s next prime minister is the latest figure promoting greater state control of important national assets.

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India

Macroscope | Is investors’ love affair with India ending?

Investors have flocked to tech-heavy markets, but looming US interest rate rises and volatility fears could see India’s star shine again.

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Japan

Macroscope | Why Japan’s proposal for G7 critical mineral stockpiles is a bad idea

Tokyo’s overtures towards the G7 assume that China is a threat to be countered with economic or security measures.

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(From left) Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, US President Donald Trump, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz prepare for a group picture at Hotel Royal during the G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains, France on June 16. Photo: EPA
US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | Investors focused on Hormuz miss bigger threat to world economy

As energy security becomes a more potent force, stress tests for countries vulnerable to supply disruptions are likely to become more severe.

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Students clash with police officers during a protest against a fuel price hike in Jakarta on June 12. Photo: EPA
Stocks

Macroscope | Moment of truth is coming for the AI stock boom

Tech barons are seeking to raise outrageous sums before the balloon goes up. If it does, where will portfolio investment go?

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United States

Macroscope | Investors expecting a US interest rate rise could be in for a surprise

Rising bond yields are doing some of the Fed’s work, as are investor fears over the US central bank’s independence under Kevin Warsh.

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