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Iris Deng

Chinese smartphone makers are bearing the brunt of a global memory crunch, slashing their 2026 shipment targets by tens of millions of units, according to industry supply chain sources.
Beijing-based smartphone and electric vehicle giant Xiaomi cut its latest shipment forecast for the year by between 10 and 70 million units in its guidance for upstream suppliers, a source said. This follows a target of 180 million units the company had set in the fourth quarter of last year, the source added.
Transsion, a Shenzhen-based budget handset maker, lowered its annual shipment target by 30 to 45 million units, having initially forecast an output of about 115 million, the source said.
These targets will be adjusted depending on the market conditions, the source said, adding that “Transsion and Xiaomi have been hit the hardest [by the rising memory costs]”.

The potential cutback in smartphone shipments comes amid smartphone makers’ struggle with an unfolding “supercycle” in the global memory sector. The world’s top three suppliers – Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron Technology – are shifting their capacity for artificial intelligence applications, resulting in a supply squeeze for consumer products.
The ongoing increase in memory-chip prices was forcing smartphone brands to make “rolling updates” to their forecasts, but the sentiment was generally “conservative”, according to another source in the supply chain serving some of the country’s top smartphone makers.
“My clients are revising their production plan on a weekly basis,” the source said, adding that a significant cutback at one supplier did not translate to an across-the-board reduction along the supply chain.
Transsion and Xiaomi did not immediately respond to requests for comment on Tuesday.
Shipment figures given by Xiaomi and Transsion varied vastly across the supply chain as they “give higher forecasts to memory-chip manufacturers to vie for resource allocation, while offering lower targets to other component suppliers to gain leverage in price negotiations”, one of the sources said.
Some smartphone makers like Huawei Technologies, which had close ties to Chinese memory-chip makers, such as ChangXin Memory Technologies, were better shielded from the full impact of the soaring costs, with shipments likely to remain at a largely stable level, the source said.
Chinese smartphone makers were still struggling to gauge the full impact of the rapidly evolving global memory crunch, taking a wait-and-see approach before adjusting their forecast, another source close to handset makers said.
Xiaomi and Oppo slashed their forecasts for 2026 by over 20 per cent, while Vivo cut its target by nearly 15 per cent, Chinese tech media outlet Jiemian reported last week, citing sources.
Transsion lowered its target to below 70 million units, according to the report.
Xiaomi, Oppo and Transsion did not immediately respond to requests for comment on their revised targets. Vivo declined to comment.
Market research firm IDC in December lowered its forecast for the global smartphone market, expecting sales to contract between 2.9 and 5.2 per cent. Chinese Android handset manufacturers targeting the low end of the market faced the biggest threat, according to IDC.
Chinese smartphone manufacturers had broadly scaled back their shipment targets, with a more “pessimistic” outlook for the first half of 2026, said Will Wong, a senior research manager for client devices at IDC Asia-Pacific.
“The industry is pinning its hopes on an AI-driven demand for memory chips to peak in the second half of 2026, which would ease the upward pressure on memory costs,” Wong said. “However, their confidence level on this outlook is relatively low.”
Some smartphone makers were actively making adjustments to their handset specifications in a bid “to control the retail price hikes and protect their margins”, Wong said.


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Xiaomi cut its latest shipment forecast by between 10 and 70 million units, while Transsion lowered its target by 30 to 45 million units


Xiaomi cut its latest shipment forecast by between 10 and 70 million units, while Transsion lowered its target by 30 to 45 million units.


.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Xiaomi cut its latest shipment forecast by between 10 and 70 million units, while Transsion lowered its target by 30 to 45 million units

Xiaomi cut its latest shipment forecast by between 10 and 70 million units, while Transsion lowered its target by 30 to 45 million units