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Nick Pulford

Germany and England, having been closely matched in a friendly on Wednesday night, go to the other end of the international scale on Monday morning (Hong Kong time) in their World Cup qualifiers when they face Azerbaijan and Lithuania respectively.
The big teams are similarly short odds, with Germany away to the nation lying 89th in the Fifa rankings and England hosting the 107th-ranked country.
By contrast, Germany are the top-ranked European country in third overall behind only Argentina and Brazil, and England are 14th on the world list.
England were in the top 10 a year ago, but have dropped down the rankings after a disastrous 2016, which saw them lose two managers and go out of the Euro 2016 finals to Iceland.

New boss Gareth Southgate steadied the ship with an unbeaten run of four matches in the autumn and, despite the 1-0 defeat by Germany, he has some innovative ideas too.
For a start, Southgate abandoned the notion that Wayne Rooney is undroppable by cutting him from the 26-man squad for these matches.
All to play for as Manchester City and Liverpool seek continue scoring streak
Rooney declared he was fit, but the manager took the brave decision to leave out the 31-year-old and replace him as captain on the field with Gary Cahill.
Southgate believes Rooney can only be considered nowadays for the number 10 role, rather than as an out-and-out striker, and in that position there are younger options who are not only playing more regularly at club level but are playing better than England’s record goalscorer.

Dele Alli is the leading candidate for that attacking position – with Adam Lallana and Ross Barkley among the other options – and the Tottenham Hotspur star was widely seen as England’s best performer on Wednesday night against Germany.
With Cahill leading a three-man defence against Germany, England had a better attacking shape and Alli was comfortable and effective in a role that replicated his club set-up.
Long shot Lincoln City give under pressure Arsene Wenger easy target as Arsenal face FA Cup quarter-final test
England did not score, of course, but Southgate was right to try a different system in a friendly and there was distinct promise in the experiment, with the visitors matching Germany for shots and beating them for possession and corners.
Another point worth noting is that four of the outfield players in the starting team were from outside the Premier League’s big six – Burnley’s Michael Keane in the three-man defence, wing back Ryan Bertrand of Southampton, West Bromwich Albion midfielder Jake Livermore and Leicester City’s Jamie Vardy up front.

England have had false dawns before and the only real judgement can be drawn in a major finals tournament – which is where it tends to go horribly wrong – but Southgate could be satisfied with Wednesday’s performance against the best nation in Europe.
The match with Lithuania is mostly about ensuring England collect three points at home and there should be no problem, with former manager Roy Hodgson having produced a perfect 10 in qualification for Euro 2016, followed by victory in Sam Allardyce’s sole qualifier in charge and two wins and an away draw under Southgate in group F for the 2018 World Cup.
Home is where the Hart is: Tottenham Hotspur and Leicester City seek comfort in familiar surroundings
England did concede a goal in the autumn qualifiers and the best bet is to look for a correct score with a home win to nil.
The shortest odds are a 2-0 home win for England, but it is worth going for the combination of 3-0 and 4-0. In the Euro qualifiers in 2015, England beat Lithuania 3-0 away and 4-0 at home.

Another bet to consider at good odds is High on the First Half HiLo, which is a win if at least two goals are scored in the first 45 minutes. The half-time score in both of the England-Lithuania matches was 2-0.
As usual, it is difficult to find any great value in the majority of mismatched qualifiers but Poland are worth considering away to Montenegro in group E as they are unbeaten in 12 competitive internationals, having been knocked out in the Euro 2016 quarter-finals only on penalties by tournament winners Portugal.
League Cup can once again give Jose Mourinho a platform for success
Denmark have had a couple of setbacks in that group, with autumn defeats away to Poland and home to Montenegro, but they are a decent bet on the handicap away to Romania.
With the big European leagues taking a break, punters should take a look at the action in England’s League One.

Sixth-placed Southend rate well on the handicap away to Wimbledon, who have won only one match out of 10 against the top six.
At home, Wimbledon have taken just one point out of 15 in that category.
Bradford City are the handicap pick in their top-six clash away to Scunthorpe.
Best Bets
Short list
Fleetwood, Slovenia.
Southend on handicap
Excellent form since the end of September
Oxford on handicap
Have lost to only two teams below them in 2017
Bradford on handicap
Only one defeat in their last 12 league games
Poland away win
Have the scoring power to beat Montenegro
Denmark on handicap
Solid chance to get back on track in Group E
Big number
5
Consecutive wins to nil for England in home competitive matches


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2018 Fifa World Cup European qualifying

Safe bets as Germany and England take on minnows in World Cup qualifying

England manager Gareth Southgate. Photo: AFP

England´s Michael Keane plays the ball during a friendly football match between Germany and England on March 22, 2017 in Dortmund, western Germany. It is Lukas Podolski's last match with the German team. / AFP PHOTO / PATRIK STOLLARZ

epaselect epa05864585 Lukas Podolski (C) of Germany celebrates after scoring the 1-0 lead during the international friendly soccer match between Germany and England in Dortmund, Germany, 22 March 2017. EPA/FRIEDEMANN VOGEL

Germany's midfielder Toni Kroos (c) and England´s Adam Lallana vie during a friendly football match between Germany and England on March 22, 2017 in Dortmund, western Germany. It is Lukas Podolski's last match with the German team. / AFP PHOTO / PATRIK STOLLARZ

Germany's defender Julian Weigl (L) and England´s Gary Cahill vie during a friendly football match between Germany and England on March 22, 2017 in Dortmund, western Germany. It is Lukas Podolski's last match with the German team. / AFP PHOTO / PATRIK STOLLARZ

Football Soccer - Germany v England - International Friendly - Signal-Iduna-Park, Dortmund, Germany - 22/3/17 England's Dele Alli in action with Germany's Joshua Kimmich Action Images via Reuters / Carl Recine Livepic

Fairy-tale end for Lukas Podolski as Germany set record in win over old enemy England

Lukas Podolski grabbed the winner in his final appearance for Germany. Photo: EPA

epa05864588 Germany's captain Lukas Podolski (C) acores the 1-0 during the international friendly soccer match between Germany and England in Dortmund, Germany, 22 March 2017. EPA/RONALD WITTEK

epa05864661 Germany's Lukas Podolski (up) celebrates with teammates after the international friendly soccer match between Germany and England in Dortmund, Germany, 22 March 2017. EPA/RONALD WITTEK

Football Soccer - Germany v England - International Friendly - Signal-Iduna-Park, Dortmund, Germany - 22/3/17 England manager Gareth Southgate Action Images via Reuters / Carl Recine Livepic

Football Soccer - Germany v England - International Friendly - Signal-Iduna-Park, Dortmund, Germany - 22/3/17 England's Eric Dier, Chris Smalling and Gary Cahill wait for a corner Action Images via Reuters / Carl Recine Livepic

Gareth Southgate begins process of easing skipper Wayne Rooney out of England picture

England captain Wayne Rooney has been dropped from the England squad for the first time. Photo: Reuters

England manager Gareth Southgate speaks during the squad announcement at St George's Park, Burton, England, Thursday, March 16, 2017. Jermain Defoe has been recalled to the England squad at the age of 35, more than three years after last playing for the team. The Sunderland striker is among 26 players selected for England’s upcoming double-header after captain Wane Rooney, Daniel Sturridge and Harry Kane were ruled out through injury. (Simon Cooper/PA via AP)

FILE - In this Saturday, March, 14, 2015 file photo, Sunderland's Jermain Defoe looks on during their English Premier League soccer match against Aston Villa at the Stadium of Light, Sunderland, England. Jermain Defoe has been recalled to the England squad at the age of 35, more than three years after last playing for the team, it was announced on Thursday, March 16, 2017. The 34-year-old Sunderland striker is among 26 players selected for England’s upcoming double-header after captain Wane Rooney, Daniel Sturridge and Harry Kane were ruled out through injury. (AP Photo/Scott Heppell, file)

Britain Soccer Football - Southampton v Manchester United - EFL Cup Final - Wembley Stadium - 26/2/17 Manchester United's Wayne Rooney and Michael Carrick during the warm up before the match Action Images via Reuters / Carl Recine Livepic EDITORIAL USE ONLY. No use with unauthorized audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or "live" services. Online in-match use limited to 45 images, no video emulation. No use in betting, games or single club/league/player publications. Please contact your account representative for further details.

Interim boss Gareth Southgate handed the full-time England manager's job as FA plumps for safe option

Confirmed as manager, Gareth Southgate will lead England towards the 2018 World Cup and 2020 European Championship. Photo: Reuters

(FILES) This file photo taken on November 8, 2016 shows England's Interim manager Gareth Southgate as he leaves after taking a team training session at St George's Park in Burton-on-Trent, ahead of their group F World Cup qualifying football match against Scotland. The Football Association announced that Southgate had been appointed as the new England manager on November 30, 2016. / AFP PHOTO / PAUL ELLIS / NOT FOR MARKETING OR ADVERTISING USE / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE

‘I’m not sure who else is out there to be honest’: reaction to Gareth Southgate’s appointment as England manager

Gareth Southgate was named England manager on Wednesday. Photo: AFP

PLEASE CLEAR THE RIGHTS BEFORE USE / ASP [ASSOCIATED SPORTS PHOTOGRAPHY / UK]. File picture of English Soccer goalkeeper Peter Shilton. ASP PHOTO

SWE06D:SPORT-SOCCER:STOCKHOLM,SWEDEN,5SEP98 - England's Jamie Redknapp (L) is tackled by Sweden's Henrik Larsson during their match at the Rasunda stadium in Stockholm September 5. England are playing Sweden in the group 5 qualifier match for Euro 2000. kd/Photo by Russell Boyce REUTERS REUTERS

epa05627608 England's Gary Cahill (L) celebrates with teammate Adam Lallana (C) after a goal during the FIFA World Cup 2018 Qualification group F match between England and Scotland at Wembley Stadium in London, Britain, 11 November 2016. EPA/ANDY RAIN

Aston Villa's Paul Merson (R) is tackled by Manchester City's French defender Laurent Charvet (L) in their English Premiership match at Villa Park, December 16, 2000. REUTERS/Ian Hodgson

Southampton's Matt Le Tissier (L) and Manchester United's Paul Scholes chase the ball in action their late 19 January FA Premiership clash at The Dell.

Sport

Joachim Loew’s world champions travel to Azerbaijan, while Gareth Southgate’s charges entertain Lithuania


Fifa World Cup 2018

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Column

You Bet

You Bet | Safe bets as Germany and England take on minnows in World Cup qualifying

Joachim Loew’s world champions travel to Azerbaijan, while Gareth Southgate’s charges entertain Lithuania