How China’s Belt and Road Initiative is shifting to green energy and private investment
Beijing has moved past its Covid-era mantra, pivoting from large sovereign loans to green tech investments, but execution bottlenecks and risks remain
Five years after President Xi Jinping urged planners to prioritise “small and beautiful” projects under the Belt and Road Initiative, the value of the average Chinese overseas deal is the highest on record. Chinese investment across 150 Belt and Road countries reached US$49.8 billion in the first half of 2026, alongside US$76.5 billion in construction contracts – marking the strongest first half since the Initiative’s 2013 launch, according to research led by Christoph Nedopil, founding director of the Green Finance & Development Center at Fudan University. More than 30 deals topped US$1 billion, up from 29 a year earlier, including an US$8 billion rail contract in the United Arab Emirates.
According to the Green Finance & Development Center report, the pandemic-era “small and beautiful” motto is now officially “bygone”. Nedopil clarifies that while smaller deals are still signed, the slogan no longer propels the Initiative. “The motto is not the main driving force of the [Belt and Road],” he says. Instead, the campaign’s chief remaining characteristic is its focus on sustainability.
These days it is less the size of the cheque than who writes it, what it buys and how it is structured. Top-down sovereign lending by state policy banks has contracted significantly. China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China extended just 28 overseas sovereign loan commitments worth US$10.5 billion in 2020 and 2021 combined, as mounting host-country debt burdens limited capacity for new borrowing.
Instead of direct project finance, China has pivoted to co-financing through foreign development financial institutions, establishing joint equity funds and leveraging private capital. Data from Nedopil shows that private Chinese companies grew their share of Belt and Road engagement from 12.5 per cent in 2020 to 47.7 per cent in the first half of 2026. While state-owned enterprises continue to dominate heavy civil construction, private firms now lead direct investment.
This capital realignment changes the nature of foreign engagement. “A private company invests very differently. It sets up joint ventures with local partners. It builds factories and supply chains, not railways,” says Miguel Latorre, founder and managing partner of Kynsen Advisory. “A private solar manufacturer going into Indonesia with a local partner has nothing in common with a policy bank funding a port.”