https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/rss/327851/feed Stephen Olson is a visiting senior fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore. en https://assets-v2.i-scmp.com/production/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg Stephen Olson Stephen Olson The much-anticipated Supreme Court ruling on US President Donald Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to implement his tariff regime has been handed down. In a sharp rebuke to his administration, the nation’s highest court has ruled that Trump’s use of the IEEPA authority was unconstitutional. Other tariffs implemented under separate statutes, such as the sector-specific Section 232 steel and aluminium tariffs, are unaffected. What are the broader implications... https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/week-asia/opinion/article/3344911/southeast-asia-do-not-mistake-trumps-tariff-defeat-reprieve?utm_source=rss_feed https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/week-asia/opinion/article/3344911/southeast-asia-do-not-mistake-trumps-tariff-defeat-reprieve?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 28 Feb 2026 04:00:10 +0000 Stephen Olson Stephen Olson Another high-stakes face-off between the United States and China has come and gone. The much-anticipated summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump in Busan, South Korea, resulted in agreement on several points. The US agreed to reduce its so-called fentanyl tariffs on China by 10 per cent, suspend recently tightened technology restrictions for a year and suspend an investigation into Chinese shipbuilding practices. China, according to a White House fact sheet,... https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/opinion/china-opinion/article/3331430/trump-xi-summit-underscores-how-us-china-relations-are-stuck-rut?utm_source=rss_feed https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/opinion/china-opinion/article/3331430/trump-xi-summit-underscores-how-us-china-relations-are-stuck-rut?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 04 Nov 2025 12:30:18 +0000 Wendy Cutler,Stephen Olson Wendy Cutler,Stephen Olson As the United States begins its public consultation process for a 2026 review of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), Asian economies should pay close attention. The USMCA review will most likely yield one of four results: a renewal of the agreement for another 16 years until 2042, an agreement to allow the pact to expire in 2036, a more immediate termination upon six months’ notice by any party, or a partial or complete overhaul of the agreement. Given the litany of trade complaints levelled... https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/opinion/world-opinion/article/3326820/why-asia-has-huge-stakes-us-mexico-canada-trade-deal-review?utm_source=rss_feed https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/opinion/world-opinion/article/3326820/why-asia-has-huge-stakes-us-mexico-canada-trade-deal-review?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 28 Sep 2025 21:30:08 +0000 Stephen Olson Stephen Olson Any lingering doubts about the extent to which US President Donald Trump has rewritten the rules of global trade should have been laid to rest with reports that chip giants Nvidia and AMD have agreed to pay the US government 15 per cent of the revenue from chip sales in China. The payments are a quid pro quo for approval of the export licences needed to sell semiconductors critical to China’s artificial intelligence (AI) ambitions. The previously stalled licences were approved by the Commerce... https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/opinion/world-opinion/article/3321950/trumps-pay-play-trade-policy-sets-dangerous-precedent?utm_source=rss_feed https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/opinion/world-opinion/article/3321950/trumps-pay-play-trade-policy-sets-dangerous-precedent?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 17 Aug 2025 08:30:09 +0000 Stephen Olson Stephen Olson Now that Donald Trump’s arbitrary July 9 deadline for negotiations on “reciprocal” tariffs has come and gone, what are the implications for Southeast Asia? To date, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines are the only countries in the region to have secured so-called deals. Other countries are left with the previously announced April tariffs intact, although the negotiating deadline has been extended for three weeks to August 1. As things stand, there remain few winners in Southeast Asia in the... https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/week-asia/opinion/article/3319643/trumps-tariff-deals-southeast-asia-will-there-be-any-winners?utm_source=rss_feed https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/week-asia/opinion/article/3319643/trumps-tariff-deals-southeast-asia-will-there-be-any-winners?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 26 Jul 2025 02:00:14 +0000 Stephen Olson Stephen Olson The conclusion of US President Donald Trump’s 90-day window for reciprocal tariff negotiations has arrived with more of a whimper than a bang. Letters have been delivered to 14 trade partners, basically reconfirming the April tariff levels or making slight adjustments, and then extending the negotiating deadline to August 1. To date, the total number of trade deals concluded stands at two – with Vietnam and Britain – not including the “framework” agreement with China. As the negotiations... https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/opinion/world-opinion/article/3317432/trump-flip-flops-tariffs-whats-point-negotiating-all?utm_source=rss_feed https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/opinion/world-opinion/article/3317432/trump-flip-flops-tariffs-whats-point-negotiating-all?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 09 Jul 2025 12:30:08 +0000 Stephen Olson Stephen Olson Two days of talks in London between the United States and China have underlined that tariffs are no longer necessarily the primary theatre of operation in the trade war. The action has now shifted to the far more difficult issue of export controls, primarily on rare earth exports from China and technology exports from the US. That’s good news for China. Although details are lacking, the London negotiations resulted in a framework that purports to make at least some progress on the nettlesome... https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/opinion/china-opinion/article/3314272/us-china-trade-wars-shift-export-controls-music-beijings-ears?utm_source=rss_feed https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/opinion/china-opinion/article/3314272/us-china-trade-wars-shift-export-controls-music-beijings-ears?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 17 Jun 2025 12:30:07 +0000 Stephen Olson Stephen Olson US President Donald Trump has always appeared sincere in his belief that “trade wars are good, and easy to win”, but his recent policy swerves and mood-music shifts suggest he is coming to realise he has overplayed his hand in waging a trade war against the world. Trade partners from Beijing to Brussels are relishing the sight of Trump scrambling to back off from his preposterous “reciprocal” tariffs, while painting a rosy picture of the prospect of “fair” trade deals and seeming to eschew his... https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/opinion/world-opinion/article/3309089/picking-global-fight-may-not-be-best-strategy-trump-finding-out?utm_source=rss_feed https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/opinion/world-opinion/article/3309089/picking-global-fight-may-not-be-best-strategy-trump-finding-out?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 06 May 2025 21:30:08 +0000 President Xi Jinping’s recently concluded European trip was a quiet but meaningful success. This was not the result of any headline-grabbing policy victories; none were expected and none were achieved. Instead, this success derived from his ability to stiff-arm European complaints about China’s economic and geopolitical conduct while reinforcing anti-US sentiment, thereby hindering Washington’s ability to draw the European Union into a more unified and tougher stance against China. The specific... https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/opinion/china-opinion/article/3262584/why-xis-european-tour-was-quiet-effective-victory-over-us?utm_source=rss_feed https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/opinion/china-opinion/article/3262584/why-xis-european-tour-was-quiet-effective-victory-over-us?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 16 May 2024 12:30:10 +0000 A flurry of US trade actions targeting China point to a looming intensification of the US-China trade war and raise questions over whether the relationship is moving towards more stable ground, as officials have recently asserted. Speaking last week to steelworkers in Pittsburgh, President Joe Biden said he had asked US Trade Representative Katherine Tai to consider tripling tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from China, currently at 7.5 per cent. The US is also launching a trade... https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/opinion/china-opinion/article/3259909/all-diplomatic-reassurance-us-china-trade-tensions-are-growing?utm_source=rss_feed https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/opinion/china-opinion/article/3259909/all-diplomatic-reassurance-us-china-trade-tensions-are-growing?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 23 Apr 2024 12:30:14 +0000 In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is calling for economic self-reliance and raising trade barriers. China has adopted a dual circulation strategy which puts increased emphasis on domestic demand and relegates trade to a supporting role. The buzzword within the European Union is strategic autonomy, which recognises the need to strengthen domestic production capabilities and reduce dependence on trade. In the United States, the Biden administration is pursuing a worker-centric trade policy... https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/comment/opinion/article/3144511/how-trades-resilience-defies-expectations-amid-coronavirus-and?utm_source=rss_feed https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/comment/opinion/article/3144511/how-trades-resilience-defies-expectations-amid-coronavirus-and?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 11 Aug 2021 17:00:26 +0000 China continues to move forward with its dual circulation strategy, first laid out at the Communist Party Politburo meeting in May last year. The strategy describes “a new development pattern where domestic and foreign markets can boost each other, with the domestic market as the mainstay”. Internal circulation, understood to mean the domestic cycle of production, distribution and consumption, will be the main engine powering China’s economic growth and development. This internal loop is... https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/comment/opinion/article/3138451/how-chinas-dual-circulation-strategy-heralds-new-era-global-trade?utm_source=rss_feed https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/comment/opinion/article/3138451/how-chinas-dual-circulation-strategy-heralds-new-era-global-trade?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 24 Jun 2021 22:45:06 +0000 With US President Joe Biden approaching the 100-day mark in office, we have already learned four important things about how trade policy is likely to unfold, at least initially, under the new US administration. First, former president Donald Trump’s legacy will cast a wide shadow. Trump’s norm-busting presidency, and in particular his proclivity to run roughshod over traditional alliances and marginalise global institutions, spurred conjecture on whether US relations with the rest of the world... https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/comment/opinion/article/3129471/four-reasons-biden-and-trump-will-not-differ-much-us-trade-policy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/comment/opinion/article/3129471/four-reasons-biden-and-trump-will-not-differ-much-us-trade-policy?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 14 Apr 2021 14:00:15 +0000 US President Joe Biden recently signed an executive order for a 100-day review of potential weaknesses in the US supply chain for semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, batteries for electric vehicles, and critical minerals used in various hi-tech products. The move had been anticipated, as Biden had pledged during the presidential campaign to address vulnerabilities in the US supply chain that had become glaringly evident during the pandemic. Recent developments have only highlighted the urgency of... https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/comment/opinion/article/3123943/making-us-supply-chains-stronger-bidens-policies-may-end-looking?utm_source=rss_feed https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/comment/opinion/article/3123943/making-us-supply-chains-stronger-bidens-policies-may-end-looking?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 04 Mar 2021 17:30:13 +0000 As President-elect Joe Biden’s administration gets up and running, perhaps the sharpest policy difference with its predecessor will be the new president’s desire to repair global alliances, build coalitions and work constructively with like-minded countries. This is particularly true on trade policy, where Biden has expressed a desire to establish a united front with the European Union on trade grievances with China. Biden’s desire to reverse President Donald Trump’s go-it-alone strategy is... https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/comment/opinion/article/3118137/china-eu-investment-deal-shows-biden-united-front-trade-will-not-be?utm_source=rss_feed https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/comment/opinion/article/3118137/china-eu-investment-deal-shows-biden-united-front-trade-will-not-be?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 18 Jan 2021 20:00:10 +0000 Based on what United States President-elect Joe Biden has said about his approach to trade, and what policies we know his party’s progressive wing will push him to adopt, it is reasonable to wonder: will Biden be the first sustainable trade president? Sustainable trade stipulates that trade needs to be pursued not only on the basis of economic gains; it must also strengthen social capital – for example, by ensuring high labour standards – and bolster environmental stewardship. Biden’s position... https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/comment/opinion/article/3112423/bidens-push-sustainable-trade-will-be-delicate-balancing-act?utm_source=rss_feed https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/comment/opinion/article/3112423/bidens-push-sustainable-trade-will-be-delicate-balancing-act?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 04 Dec 2020 17:30:09 +0000 China’s recently announced “dual circulation” strategy – in which its traditional emphasis on growth through exports will be bolstered by a renewed focus on spurring domestic demand – is a recognition of a simple reality: the highly conducive international trade environment that fuelled China’s supercharged growth for decades is breaking down. The prevailing presumption since at least the 1990s, across both developed and developing nations, has been the more trade, the better. The efficiencies... https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/comment/opinion/article/3101125/chinas-dual-circulation-strategy-step-towards-sustainable-trade?utm_source=rss_feed https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/comment/opinion/article/3101125/chinas-dual-circulation-strategy-step-towards-sustainable-trade?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 12 Sep 2020 19:30:17 +0000 US President Donald Trump and his Democratic rival Joseph Biden differ in many ways. But in trade policy, their differences are considerably less pronounced. In at least some areas, there is likely to be a fair amount of continuity in trade policy under a prospective Biden administration. Three issues illustrate where the key similarities and differences are likely to lie. First, a cornerstone of Trump’s trade policy is the belief that the United States needs a worker-based approach to trade.... https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/comment/opinion/article/3095966/under-biden-average-americans-will-remain-heart-us-trade-policy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/comment/opinion/article/3095966/under-biden-average-americans-will-remain-heart-us-trade-policy?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 05 Aug 2020 17:30:06 +0000 With four months to go until the US presidential election, current polls give presumptive Democratic challenger Joseph Biden a commanding lead over President Donald Trump. Although two weeks can be an eternity in politics, America’s trade partners are closely watching the race and some are preparing for the possibility that the Trump administration will be voted out in November. Trump’s sharply declining political fortunes have begun to impact the disposition of three important trade issues in... https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/comment/opinion/article/3093957/what-if-trump-one-term-president-why-three-trade-issues-can-wait?utm_source=rss_feed https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/comment/opinion/article/3093957/what-if-trump-one-term-president-why-three-trade-issues-can-wait?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 21 Jul 2020 14:00:15 +0000 As 2020 commenced, White House political calculations on trade, China and President Donald Trump’s re-election campaign appeared firmly on track. The three-step political strategy was clear. First, present China as a country which has broken trade rules for decades, taking advantage of the naivety of previous US administrations to achieve its unprecedented economic rise. Second, after pursuing a “get-tough” policy, including substantial punitive tariffs, conclude a phase-one trade agreement that... https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/comment/opinion/article/3086051/us-china-partial-decoupling-inevitable-and-must-be-carefully?utm_source=rss_feed https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/comment/opinion/article/3086051/us-china-partial-decoupling-inevitable-and-must-be-carefully?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 26 May 2020 17:00:19 +0000 The coronavirus pandemic is reshaping the way the world lives, works and trades. The US-China trade relationship in particular is being disrupted in three distinct but closely intertwined ways: one, trade dependencies are being rethought; two, prospects for re-escalation of trade tensions are mounting; and three, mutual trust is deteriorating. Long before any of us heard the word “coronavirus”, a series of gradually escalating tariff rounds between the US and China beginning in 2018 created... https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/comment/opinion/article/3078782/us-china-war-words-over-coronavirus-crisis-may-well-reignite-trade?utm_source=rss_feed https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/comment/opinion/article/3078782/us-china-war-words-over-coronavirus-crisis-may-well-reignite-trade?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 07 Apr 2020 19:00:08 +0000 The still-evolving coronavirus outbreak has already disrupted trade and economic performance both regionally and globally. Perhaps the most insidious impact of the virus stems from China’s pre-eminent position as a producer of intermediary products that feed into global supply chains. China accounts for almost one-fifth of world manufacturing and Chinese intermediary products are predominant in the electronics, car, machinery and textile sectors. Subtracting Chinese inputs from these supply... https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/opinion/coronavirus-outbreak-could-accelerate-breakdown-global-trade/article/3051586?utm_source=rss_feed https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/opinion/coronavirus-outbreak-could-accelerate-breakdown-global-trade/article/3051586?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 20 Feb 2020 10:24:53 +0000 The still-evolving coronavirus outbreak has already disrupted trade and economic performance both regionally and globally. Perhaps the most insidious impact of the virus stems from China’s pre-eminent position as a producer of intermediary products that feed into global supply chains. China accounts for almost one-fifth of world manufacturing and Chinese intermediary products are predominant in the electronics, car, machinery and textile sectors. Subtracting Chinese inputs from these supply... https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/comment/opinion/article/3051228/coronavirus-chaos-can-prompt-needed-rethink-global-trade-and?utm_source=rss_feed https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/comment/opinion/article/3051228/coronavirus-chaos-can-prompt-needed-rethink-global-trade-and?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 19 Feb 2020 19:00:17 +0000 Meeting on the fringes of the G20 summit in Osaka, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping have reached an agreement to resume trade negotiations that were suspended in early May in response to what the US characterised as backsliding on the part of China. As part of the agreement, the US will refrain, at least for the time being, from applying tariffs on the roughly US$300 billion in Chinese imports not yet subject to punitive measures. Previous tariffs will remain in place.... https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/comment/opinion/article/3016778/china-and-us-need-new-rules-engagement-not-just-trade-deal?utm_source=rss_feed https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/comment/opinion/article/3016778/china-and-us-need-new-rules-engagement-not-just-trade-deal?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 01 Jul 2019 17:30:09 +0000 Sighs of relief could be heard in Berlin, Tokyo and Seoul when the US administration recently delayed for 180 days its final decision on the imposition of global tariffs on automotive products, pursuant to an investigation conducted by the US Department of Commerce under so-called Section 232 national security provisions.  Most observers attributed this delay to a desire on the part of the administration to avoid escalating tensions with key trade partners while tensions with China reach a... https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/comment/opinion/article/3013153/us-china-trade-war-could-be-warm-act-real-conflict-over-auto?utm_source=rss_feed https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/comment/opinion/article/3013153/us-china-trade-war-could-be-warm-act-real-conflict-over-auto?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 05 Jun 2019 19:00:14 +0000 Headline writers and Twitter lit up this week on news that the Donald Trump administration has drafted a bill, unfortunately acronymed the “Fart Act”, that seeks to abandon fundamental principles of the World Trade Organisation. In a significant shift in American trade policy, the proposed Fair and Reciprocal Tariff Act would allow the US president to raise tariffs without congressional consent and bypass international rules. To be clear, there are problems galore with global trade regulations.... https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/week-asia/opinion/article/2153920/dont-just-blame-trump-or-china-trade-war?utm_source=rss_feed https://www-scmp-com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/week-asia/opinion/article/2153920/dont-just-blame-trump-or-china-trade-war?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 08 Jul 2018 02:32:34 +0000