Driving remains riskier than flying in 2025 – those accidents aside

An American Airlines regional jet collided with a Black Hawk helicopter over the Potomac River in Washington, killing 67 people. A private medical jet crashed in Philadelphia, with seven lives lost. A Delta Air Lines flight to Amsterdam returned to Minneapolis-St Paul for an emergency landing on due to a mechanical issue, with no one hurt. And that was just one recent week in aviation. But even in the wake of these incidents, how dangerous is flying, really? Is this part of a new trend? And what is the deal with air traffic controllers? While it’s complicated to ascertain what the future will be with Donald Trump’s recent cuts to the Federal Aviation Administration, let’s break down the situation as we know it with data and facts – and a little commentary. How unusual was the Washington crash? It’s important to remember that the tragedy at Washington’s Reagan National Airport was highly unusual for any US airline – if not incredibly rare. Before that, the last American commercial airline crash was in February 2009, when a Continental turboprop plane crashed near Buffalo, New York, killing 50. The intervening 16 years sometimes felt like a golden age of US air safety. There was exactly one US airline fatality in all that time, caused when a Southwest 737 engine exploded mid-air in 2018. And while our fading memories of the 1970s to the 90s might include quite a few news stories of large-scale aviation tragedies, the last high-casualty accident in the US was back in 2001: the American Airlines Airbus crash in Queens that killed 265, just two months after September 11. Putting it all in perspective, the skies have been remarkably peaceful in this century. And, by the way, Joe Biden was the first president since Calvin Coolidge to have no domestic airline crash fatalities on his watch. But what are the odds of being in an accident? For the big picture, we can look to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), which issues its annual Air Safety Report for global aviation. The 2024 report hasn’t come out yet, but last year the IATA called 2023 the “safest year for flying by several parameters”. “At this level of safety, on average a person would have to travel by air every day for 103,239 years to experience a fatal accident,” the IATA said in the 2023 report. Meanwhile, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) study from August 2024 claims that air travel has become roughly twice as safe each decade since the 1960s, thanks to advances in technology and training and work by US agencies. “The risk of a fatality from commercial air travel was one per every 13.7 million passenger boardings globally in the 2018-2022 period,” the study finds. How does that compare to traffic deaths? The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration estimates that 29,135 people died in motor vehicle crashes in the first nine months of 2024 in the US. That works out to about 106 fatalities per day – so on the very day of the Washington disaster, far more people likely died on US roads. It’s a cliché, but it’s true: the most dangerous part of a flight is the drive to the airport. (Personally, I’ve had some frightening airport Ubers.) In fact, if you really want to ensure you’ll live to see tomorrow, you might want to get on a plane right now. How about air traffic controllers? It’s no secret that the FAA has a national air traffic controller shortage, which may have contributed to the Washington collision. ATC staffing is also a factor in an alarming increase in runway near-misses, which reached a recent high in 2023. Nationally, controller staffing is only at about 72 per cent of the FAA’s target. Whereas Reagan National had a 2024 target of 28 air traffic controllers, only 19 were on board as of September 2023. But is the Washington tragedy part of a systemic problem? It’s impossible to say, especially before the National Transportation Safety Board completes its investigation into the crash. The NTSB said it would release a preliminary report within 30 days. For now, the best guess is the Potomac tragedy was a stand-alone incident. If something similar were to occur in the near future, it would be cause for further concern and action. For example, after two similar Boeing 737 Max crashes in Ethiopia and Indonesia in 2018-2019, there was a worldwide, two-year grounding of the model. What about the 737 Max, anyway? After those two major international crashes in which 346 people died, Boeing’s newer 737 Max was rightfully thrust into the centre of a safety scandal. After Boeing corrected flaws in the Max’s flight control system, the model returned to the skies by late 2020. Then in January 2024, the Max struck again, when the plug door on an Alaska Airlines Max 9 blew out mid-flight. Miraculously, no one was killed, but the most scandalous aspect of the story may be that Alaska Airlines had previously barred the very same aircraft from taking long overseas flights. All 737 Max 9 planes with door plugs were again grounded until they were confirmed to be safe. If you’re sceptical as I am, you might still view the 737 Max with at least one cocked eyebrow. I have even considered personally boycotting the Max due to all the drama. Nevertheless, I have flown on a Max a few times since 2021 – with Icelandair, United and American – and lived to tell the tale.

Driving remains riskier than flying in 2025 – those accidents aside

‘A person would have to travel by air every day for 103,239 years to experience a fatal accident,’ the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said in its most recent Air Safety Report

How unusual was the Washington crash?