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Ronny P. Sasmita

What the Mecca military pact means for China

Defence pact between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan presents a complex strategic calculus for Beijing, demanding a masterclass in balance

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Illustration: Lau Ka-kuen
Ronny P. Sasmita is a senior analyst at the Indonesia Strategic and Economics Action Institution.

When Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif signed the Mecca defence agreement, they executed a structural overhaul of the Middle East’s security architecture.

The pact codifies a defence commitment, where an armed attack on one is treated as an assault on all. Building upon September’s Saudi-Pakistan defence agreement, this tripartite arrangement bridges the financial capital of the Gulf, the industrial-military muscle of a Nato member and the operational capacity of a South Asian nuclear-armed state.
This pact was birthed by acute vulnerabilities and a crisis of confidence in Western security guarantees. For Riyadh, it is an insurance policy for Vision 2030, safeguarding giga-projects and energy arteries against regional volatility, Iran-backed Houthi maritime disruptions and unpredictable American foreign policy.
For Ankara, it is the ultimate vehicle to project power across the Islamic world under its “Asia Anew Initiative”, expanding its defence export footprint, anchored by Bayraktar drones and fifth-generation Kaan fighter jets. For Islamabad, it secures Gulf financial lifelines and energy supplies, while elevating its military elite to indispensable regional power brokers.
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