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Warwick Powell

In the spring of 2026, amid a fragile ceasefire in the Strait of Hormuz, President Donald Trump continues to insist that the United States is untouched by disruptions in the Persian Gulf. “We don’t use it”, he has claimed, echoing years of “energy dominance” rhetoric.
The numbers tell a different story. The United States remains a net importer of crude oil. Its refineries are engineered for the medium sour barrels that flow through the Hormuz Strait. And the global price shock triggered by the US’ military actions against Iran has already pushed American petrol above US$4 a gallon while hammering Europe and Asia far harder.
Start with the feedstock reality. In 2025, the US produced a record 13.6 million barrels per day of crude oil. Yet it still imported an average of 6.2 million barrels per day and exported only 4 million, leaving net crude imports at 2.2 million barrels per day.
Countries in the Persian Gulf, such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, supplied roughly 490,000 barrels per day through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, accounting for about 8 per cent of total US crude imports and roughly 2–3 per cent of refinery throughput. That is not “almost no oil”. It is a quality-specific slice needed by complex refineries along the Gulf of Mexico and the US West Coast.
A chemistry mismatch is the heart of the issue. American shale output is overwhelmingly light and sweet – high American Petroleum Institute (API) gravity and low sulphur. Most US refineries, however, were built over decades to run heavier, sourer crudes that yield more middle distillates (diesel and jet fuel) and fewer low-value residuals.
Roughly 70 per cent of US refining capacity relies on other units optimised for medium-to-heavy sour blends averaging 33-34 degrees API and 1.3 per cent sulphur. Light shale crude alone produces too much petrol and too little of the high-value products that drive refinery margins and exports. Without the imported sour barrels for blending, refiners face lower throughput, suboptimal yields and higher operating costs. Persian Gulf crude that does arrive – 88 per cent of it medium sour – fills exactly that gap.

This is why the US has been able to export roughly 7 million barrels per day of refined petroleum products (petrol, diesel, jet fuel and liquefied petroleum gas) in early 2026 while still being a net crude importer. The imported feedstock enables the refining machine that turns domestic light crude into exportable fuels. Disrupt that feedstock, and the export engine sputters.
Global pricing seals the illusion of American energy independence. Oil is a fungible commodity. When the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed after US-Israeli strikes on Iran, Brent crude surged past US$120 per barrel at peaks and remained volatile above US$100 even after the ceasefire was announced.
US refiners pay world prices. So do American drivers. The national average price of petrol climbed from under US$3 before the conflict to more than US$4 earlier this month, with diesel above US$5.45 in places. The effects will be long-lasting as production facilities have been severely damaged, requiring months or even years to repair.
The disparity with allies is stark and damning. Asia receives roughly 84 per cent of its Persian Gulf crude via Hormuz; China alone sources a third of its oil through the strait, though today its energy structure is less oil dependent than it once was, and its substantial reserves (estimated at 300 days’ cover for Persian Gulf oil) hold it in good stead.

Europe, strained by earlier energy shocks, has lost access to Middle Eastern distillates and liquefied natural gas flows. The International Energy Agency called this the largest supply disruption in oil market history. Jet fuel in Europe hit record prices near US$220 per barrel. Asia faces demand destruction as Trump boasts and bloviates.
This crisis should be a clarifying moment for Europe and Asia. Decades of dependence on Persian Gulf oil have left them exposed to American and Israeli adventurism as well as Iranian retaliation. The only durable answer is accelerated reduced dependency on oil. Europe must push harder on electrification of transport, heat pumps and grid-scale renewables; Asia must do the same while investing in nuclear, clean energy, hydrogen and battery supply chains.
While US policy can trigger energy shocks that punish allies more than adversaries, silence is complicity. European and Asian capitals must find stronger, coordinated voices – inside alliances, in global forums and in energy diplomacy – to demand restraint and build alternative supply architectures that are not hostage to Washington’s next Middle East fantasy.
The US is not energy-independent in the way its leaders boast. It is a net crude importer whose refining economy and export machine still rely on Persian Gulf chemistry. Its pump prices still rise with global shocks. And its recent war-making has catalysed precisely the crisis it claims to be immune from.
The human cost – war fatalities, destroyed public infrastructure in Iran, and elsewhere, higher grocery bills, blackouts and stranded tankers – is real.
The question is whether US allies will continue to accept the role of collateral damage or finally invest in the technological and diplomatic autonomy that true energy security demands. History will judge the US for starting the fire. It will judge Europe and American allies in Asia by whether they get burnt again.


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Tankers and bulk carriers are anchored in the Strait of Hormuz on April 18. Photo: AP

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Chinese President Xi Jinping and Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, crown prince of Abu Dhabi, attend a meeting at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on April 14. Photo: Pool via Reuters

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Illustration: Craig Stephens

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Rhetoric aside, the US is just not that energy-independent. As for Europe and Asia, it’s time they pursued true energy independence


Rhetoric aside, the US is just not that energy-independent. As for Europe and Asia, it’s time they pursued true energy independence.


Energy

Donald Trump

War and conflict

China energy security

United States

Iran

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Iran war reflects the false promise of US ‘energy dominance’

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Rhetoric aside, the US is just not that energy-independent. As for Europe and Asia, it’s time they pursued true energy independence

Rhetoric aside, the US is just not that energy-independent. As for Europe and Asia, it’s time they pursued true energy independence