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Opinion | US-Israeli strike on Iran signals new phase of global escalation
This is deterrence fatigue: escalation thresholds weakened by repeated testing and retaliation. The risk is not only war but systemic strain
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The coordinated US and Israeli strikes inside Iran mark more than another episode in a long-running confrontation. They represent a structural escalation – one whose consequences extend well beyond the Middle East.
This is not the start of a new war. It is the next stage in a conflict that has been unfolding since October 2023, gradually shifting from proxy exchanges and shadow operations to direct state-on-state confrontation.
On February 28, Washington moved from strategic backstop to visible kinetic participant alongside Israel. That shift alters the deterrence equation. What was primarily an Israel-Iran confrontation now carries the unmistakable weight of direct US-Iran escalation dynamics.
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For Asia, this matters. The Middle East is not a distant theatre. It remains central to global energy flows, maritime transit routes and supply chain stability. Any sustained instability risks reverberating through energy markets and shipping corridors that are critical to Asian economies.
Since 2024, the confrontation between Israel and Iran has evolved in deliberate phases: missile and drone exchanges, Israeli strikes inside Iranian territory, a sustained 2025 air campaign targeting nuclear-linked infrastructure, and expanding American operational involvement. Each round lowered the threshold. Each exchange normalised actions that, only two years ago, would have been considered extraordinary.
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The long-standing taboo against direct state-to-state strikes has eroded.
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