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US-China trade war
OpinionWorld Opinion
Imran Khalid

Opinion | New US-led minerals bloc renews pressure on Asia to pick sides

For Asia’s China-linked economies, the challenge is to remain open to all opportunities while safeguarding supply chains of the future

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US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, lower centre, participates in a group photo during the inaugural Critical Minerals Ministerial meeting at the Sate Department in Washington on February 4. Photo: AFP

For decades, the global economy has operated on a simple premise: efficiency above all else. We built a world where goods flowed to wherever they could be produced at the lowest cost, creating a vast, interconnected web of supply chains that ignored geography in favour of the bottom line.

That era is coming to a close. Events in the past week in Washington underline the emergence of a more muscular age of geoeconomics where the flow of the world’s most essential materials is being reordered by the visible hand of the state instead of the invisible hand of the market.

On February 4, the United States hosted a Critical Minerals Ministerial, bringing together representatives from 54 nations. Led by Vice-President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the Trump administration proposed the creation of a preferential trade zone for critical minerals – a minerals bloc designed to bypass the traditional global market. By introducing enforceable price floors and adjustable tariffs, Washington is attempting to build a fortress around the rare earths, lithium and cobalt that power the modern world.
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The logic behind this move is straightforward. Today, China controls roughly 70 per cent of global rare earth mining and more than 90 per cent of its processing. For Washington, this is a profound national security vulnerability.

As Rubio noted during the summit, such concentration allows a single country to use supply chains as a “tool of leverage in geopolitics”. The new grouping, dubbed the Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement (Forge), is the most aggressive attempt yet to break this stranglehold by “friendshoring” the entire life cycle of these minerals among a coalition of like-minded partners.

However, for Asian nations, this initiative presents a potentially painful dilemma. The global green transition – the massive shift towards renewable energy and decarbonisation – requires a vast amount of minerals. By moving to create a closed loop of allied supply chains, the US is effectively asking Asian economies to choose between two competing systems.

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