Opinion | Why US move against Maduro unlikely to drive China from Latin America

The US decision to raid Venezuela, detain its President Nicolas Maduro and bring him to the United States, ostensibly on drug trafficking charges, will have serious downstream effects, but of what variety?

US President Donald Trump has already sent ominous warnings to other Latin American countries whose leaders oppose all or parts of his agenda – from Colombia to Cuba to Mexico – and threatened Maduro’s successor with similar, or worse, treatment if she does not cooperate. Does this suggest future extraction missions in Venezuela or the rest of Latin America?

It has certainly led to questions of whether Venezuela’s interim president Delcy Rodriguez was left in power because the US perceived her as more pliant than Maduro, because of this administration’s stated aversion to regime change or whether it was over a grudge against opposition leader Maria Corina Machado for accepting the Nobel Peace Prize that Trump believes should be his.

More information will surely come out. Some initial reporting on Trump’s view of Machado – and Rodriguez’s declarations that Venezuela will “never again be anyone’s colony” – suggest the last reason is closer to the truth.

It also raises questions as to whether the US will assume that such missions can be duplicated in other country conditions. On the one hand, the US certainly does enjoy military superiority over the other Latin American countries mentioned, and some reports suggest the Chinese-made radar that Caracas depended on failed them at the most crucial of moments.