Opinion | 5 financial myths to beware of in 2026

Investors must be careful in following conventional wisdom this year as several seemingly sure bets might be anything but

Reading Time:3 minutes

A pedestrian walks past a stock market indicator board on the final trading day of the year in Tokyo on December 30. Notable outperformers for 2025 included the Nasdaq, Japan’s Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index and South Korea’s semiconductor-rich Kospi. Photo: EPA

Published: 5:30am, 2 Jan 2026Updated: 6:50am, 2 Jan 2026

Investment narratives abound at this time of year, and many of them may develop into generally accepted financial myths that often don’t make much sense. Declaring myths as such is a risky business. A week is a long time to forecast in the investment markets, let alone a year.

However, investment shocks and surprises can move markets, and it is important to be contrarian and think outside the box. Recognising alternative investment outcomes against the market consensus is what makes successful investors.

For instance, at this time last year the market was bullishly forecasting the S&P 500 index to rise 10 per cent. It turned out to nearly double that, rising almost 18 per cent despite the threat of tariff disruption to the global economy. Yet it was a comparative laggard, as the MSCI World Index jumped nearly 21 per cent, with notable outperformers including the Nasdaq, Japan’s Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index and South Korea’s semiconductor-rich Kospi, which soared a massive 75 per cent.

India, a market favourite at the beginning of 2025, shocked by rising less than 10 per cent, showing the importance of not always following the consensus.

Anyone with a US dollar investment base who invested in non-US assets picked up a healthy premium as the greenback fell 13 per cent against the euro after non-US investors lost confidence in American economic policy. Who would have thought it? As we enter 2026, here are five market myths.

Myth 1: markets will continue to rise and we must remain fundamentally bullish. I was right a year ago to forecast that the stock market bubble would not burst in 2025, even though it already looked fragile. Markets often reverse on or near quarterly dates, but I expect the bullishness to last through to at least the end of the first quarter.

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.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Investors must be careful in following conventional wisdom this year as several seemingly sure bets might be anything but

Investors must be careful in following conventional wisdom this year as several seemingly sure bets might be anything but