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David Dodwell

As South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa convenes the Group of 20 summit in Johannesburg, two things are likely to be on many minds: the empty chair and the spirit of ubuntu.
Wikipedia defines the ubuntu philosophy as encompassing “the interdependence of humans on one another and the acknowledgement of one’s responsibility to their fellow humans and the world around them”. For the purposes of South Africa’s hosting of the G20 summit, that Zulu term means multilateralism – anathema to US President Donald Trump’s “America first” philosophy.
The chair next to the G20 host normally seats the incoming chairman, in this case, Trump – but he has declared a US boycott. “I don’t want to hand over to an empty chair, but the empty chair will be there,” said Ramaphosa in Soweto last week.
Trump’s stated reason is the unsubstantiated claim of “white genocide” in South Africa: “Afrikaners…are being killed and slaughtered, and their land and farms are being illegally confiscated,” he wrote on social media: “No US government official will attend as long as these human rights abuses continue.”
The true reason is that Trump’s passionate preference for deal-making unilateralism is deeply at odds with the G20’s preference for cooperation and multilateralism. Or in Ramaphosa’s terms, ubuntu.
It also does not help that South Africa’s G20 chairmanship – following in the footsteps of previous hosts Indonesia, India and Brazil – focuses on addressing climate change, reducing poor countries’ debt burdens, financing energy transitions and ensuring that the rush for critical minerals benefits producers. The United States has reportedly indicated it would veto any G20 mention of climate change.

The G20 summit, coming a year after Trump’s re-election, reflects the radical changes his administration aims to impose on international trade and the world economy. It provides an appropriate moment to audit the impact of Trump’s second term, and where it is set to take us.
First, Trump has been true to his word on using tariffs as a wedge by which to dismantle rules-based multilateralism and replace it with his scatological version of deal-based unilateralism. The World Trade Organization, marginalised and made moribund by Trump’s unilateralist agenda, reported last week that the amount of G20 goods imports covered by trade “measures” – mostly tariffs – has risen fourfold since mid-October last year to around US$2.6 trillion.
Average tariffs have soared, but exact numbers are hard to pin down because of rates differing sharply by country, delayed implementation, broad product exclusions and legal uncertainties around enforcement. Rather than burst the trade balloon, Trump has squeezed it in the middle, prompting trading partners to redirect rather than reduce exports.
The US trade deficit that so irritates Trump seems as large as ever, with American consumers mainly paying the price of higher tariffs. But vacillation and procrastination means it is yet unclear where his tariff strategy will ultimately take us. Evidence so far suggests Trump, and the global economy, may still pay a high price.


WTO director general Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has provided a smidgen of good news, however: “Even as the global trading system endures the most severe disruptions in 80 years, trade is showing considerable resilience as most WTO members continue to trade normally with each other.”
Despite the Trump disruption, the WTO expects the global goods trade to rise by 2.4 per cent this year. And given his eccentric obsession with trade in goods rather than services, the global commercial services trade is expected to continue to grow, by 4.6 per cent this year.
Trump’s science-starved climate change denial, coupled by his determination to boost US oil and gas production, has seriously set back global efforts to reduce carbon emissions and restrain global warming. Already, increasingly violent weather, triggering unprecedented storms, floods, droughts and wildfires, has forced others to shift focus towards managing impact rather than cutting or controlling emissions.
The Trump 2.0 concern over national security has not only provided a pretext for tariff protections but, coupled with the terrible conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, has also significantly lifted defence spending. This is alarming in itself but, in boosting debt in many economies, also inevitably diverts funds urgently needed for climate change, the containment of pandemic threats and the general priorities of education, social services and infrastructure building.


So far, Trump’s erratic leadership style has cost the US’ international reputation dear. Pollster Ipsos, in a survey across 29 countries, found that America’s reputation as a force for good slumped from 59 per cent in September and October last year to 46 per cent in April this year, with the largest falls recorded among traditional allies like Canada and across Europe. For the first time, China’s reputation has risen above that of the US, to 49 per cent.
In Singapore, a team from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy reached similar conclusions about the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in an Asean study spanning three decades: “Southeast Asia is starting to choose – and the direction of travel is in favour of China.”
So what can we conclude after one year of Trump 2.0? Much harm, some unlikely to be reversible. But a majority of the harm is being inflicted inside the US. Despite the duress, most countries clearly prefer Ramaphosa’s ubuntu to Trump’s unilateralism. Multilateralism is not dead but, as the G20 meeting will show, it walks with a heavy limp.


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United States

Multilateralism isn’t dead, despite a Trumpian year

US President Donald Trump speaks to media aboard Air Force One on November 14, while in flight from Washington to West Palm Beach International Airport. Photo: Getty Images/TNS

A banner of South African President Cyril Ramaphosa (left), who is hosting the G20 summit, is displayed on a highway pillar in Johannesburg on November 20. Photo: AFP

Trump ‘uniquely consistent for decades’: Singapore’s Vivian Balakrishnan

US President Donald Trump speaks to reporters on board Air Force One on Friday while in flight from Washington to West Palm Beach International Airport. Photo: Getty Images via AFP

Singapore’s Minister for Foreign Affairs Vivian Balakrishnan speaking at the UN in September. Speaking in Singapore on Wednesday, he says US policy under President Donald Trump reflects his long-held, deep convictions. Photo: EPA

In weaponising national security in trade against China, US breeds chaos

US President Donald Trump gestures during the American Business Forum Miami at the Kaseya Centre Arena in Miami, Florida, US, on November 5. Photo: Reuters

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Illustration: Craig Stephens

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Despite the duress, most countries clearly do not prefer Trumpian unilateralism. But while multilateralism is not dead, it is limping badly


Despite the duress, most countries clearly do not prefer Trumpian unilateralism. But while multilateralism is not dead, it is limping badly.


Donald Trump

World Trade Organization (WTO)

South Africa

Asean

Trade

Cyril Ramaphosa

US Politics

Defence

Climate change

Inside Out & Outside In

China

Sweden

Ipsos

Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Column

Outside In

Multilateralism isn’t dead, despite a Trumpian year

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Despite the duress, most countries clearly do not prefer Trumpian unilateralism. But while multilateralism is not dead, it is limping badly

Despite the duress, most countries clearly do not prefer Trumpian unilateralism. But while multilateralism is not dead, it is limping badly