appConfigEntityId

bodyType

customContents

entityId

entityUuid

isVideo

articlePageQuery

article

articleSchemaContent

content

hooksArticlePageAdvertisementConfigArticle

hooksArticlePageFloatingButtonConfigArticle

appConfig

filter

json

liveArticle

Andrew Sheng

While in Hong Kong for a forum on navigating the tariff war, the consensus was that no one is immune to structural uncertainty where everything is happening at once and no one knows what exactly comes next.
Navigation is about planning and executing a journey, but you need maps, compasses and points of reference to know where you are and where you are going. Journeys across time and space need sound navigation, especially in troubled waters. Sailing is all about teamwork, but with today’s rapid changes, getting anything done is like repairing an aeroplane in mid-flight. Any mistake could end in a crash.
Some fundamental trends can help to guide us about the rules to navigate these uncertainties. First, the US-China rivalry which prompted the tariff war is a long-term trend that will not disappear any time soon.
We must all be prepared for the weaponisation of everything in this rivalry, from trade and money to talent, chips and technology. Assuming that the world’s leading powers are sensible enough to avoid mutually assured destruction from a nuclear war, we can assume that all kinds of proxy wars or more conventional warfare will be experimented with in the current march to folly.
Second, consultants use acronyms like PEST (political, economic, social and technology) to assess the operating context and operating environment. They also use SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) to evaluate preparedness for competition. Former US defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld famously had his “unknown unknowns” matrix. What you and I know are knowns knowns. What humanity knows but I do not know is an unknown known, meaning I can search and find such existing knowledge. The known unknowns are risks that can be anticipated.
Chess grandmasters have super memories and remember vast numbers of games played, but an AI computer can beat a grandmaster because it can play games no one has played before. The computer fills in gaps that humans know exist, arising from rules that humans framed. If humans themselves do not know such unknowns, I doubt AI models can yet explore the uncharted territory of unknown unknowns.


However, the notion of knowledge and action being one – attributed to Wang Yangming, a minister and philosopher during the Ming dynasty – gives us the third rule to unveil the unknown unknown. Theory and existing knowledge can only carry you so far. It is only through action and risk-taking that the unknown unknown is revealed to people who seek to go where no one has gone before.
Deng Xiaoping famously called it “crossing the river by feeling the stones”, suggesting that you have to take risks to reveal new information. His other pragmatic aphorism was that it doesn’t matter if a cat is black or white as long as it catches mice. Since the future is an unknown unknown, humanity advances through experimentation, innovation and risk-taking.
The fourth rule is that technology might not be the solution to all human and climate change challenges. Technological progress is a necessary but not sufficient condition for long-term resilience or survival. It is right to invest in technology, but not all technology will yield results.
The unfolding AI bubble is an example of this euphoria; technology will be worth billions for some, but not necessarily for all. Based on a huge boom in AI technology investment, the chipmaker Nvidia has surpassed US$4 trillion in market valuation, investing US$100 billion in ChatGPT maker OpenAI so that the latter can build data centres using Nvidia chips. OpenAI reached a similar deal with AMD, pushing its own valuation to US$500 billion.


Fear of missing out is causing many countries to build their own data centres, which is partly why the stock market thinks the AI phenomenon is not a bubble but still has some time to run. The leading AI models are all financed by the tech giants because it costs a lot to build and test these models.
The law of market competition means not every model will be a winner at the consumer level. Ultimately, it will be the mass market rather than specialist users such as governments that will determine their success in revenue and market valuation.
How long can OpenAI monetise the lucrative deals that the company has signed to continue investing in hardware and software acquisition? This sounds like the case of hoteliers frantically investing in hotel rooms in anticipation of a tourist boom. If the tourists (or AI model users) don’t show up, someone will be left holding some expensive investments.


The fifth rule therefore is that, for technology to succeed, you must have a good narrative, execution plan and ability to deliver what the market wants. There is no doubt that AI itself is a game changer, but some will be big losers when the game changes with no technology or innovation.
The large tech platforms have deep pockets to afford investing in such software and hardware, but as Warren Buffett famously said, it’s only when the tide goes out that we discover who is swimming naked. In a situation of structural uncertainty, trust in who delivers with integrity matters.
The sixth rule is that in this war of giants, the smaller players must be nimble, adaptive and able to pivot at speed. Geopolitical conflict means self-preservation will be the name of the game. The slower players will be the losers. The new normal is abnormal, and we need to be prepared for all contingencies.


China’s GoPro rival Insta360 opens first US flagship store in New York’s Times Square

Focused ultrasound could be the next big cancer breakthrough for hard-to-treat tumours

Hong Kong leader says firms must strive to survive despite government support

South Korea wants free ‘AI for All’. Is society ready for it?

Technology

Six steps to navigate US-China tariff war and AI bubble

A container ship waits to berth at the port of Qingdao, in Chinas eastern Shandong province, on August 4. Photo: AFP

Markets are paying little heed to flashing lights of AI bubble’s danger

People visit the China International Consumer Electronics Exposition in Qingdao, Shandong province, on September 19. Themed “Intelligence Connects All, AI Empowers the Future”, this year’s expo showcased cutting-edge technologies and innovative products. Photo: Xinhua

Soaring valuations among China’s sizzling chip, AI-related stocks test investors’ patience

Traders at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on October 2, 2025. Photo: Reuters

Google launches Gemini Enterprise to challenge Microsoft, OpenAI for AI dominance

The Google Cloud logo is displayed at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona in March 2025. Photo: Reuters

Google is incorporating Gemini throughout the Chrome browser in a bid to weave its AI model into all its products. Photo: Reuters

Opinion

World Opinion

News

World

China Opinion

Knowledge

US-China Relations

Topics

US-China Trade War

Explainers

Tech

Big Tech

While uncertainty is a defining characteristic of our time, there are some fundamental trends that can show a way forward


While uncertainty is a defining characteristic of our time, there are some fundamental trends that can show a way forward.


Artificial intelligence (AI)

Nvidia

OpenAI

China

United States

Deng Xiaoping

Warren Buffett

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Six steps to navigate US-China tariff war and AI bubble

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}While uncertainty is a defining characteristic of our time, there are some fundamental trends that can show a way forward

While uncertainty is a defining characteristic of our time, there are some fundamental trends that can show a way forward