Outside In | Why Global South holds winning trade cards despite Trump’s bluster
Outside the US, new consumer markets have been gathering critical mass as their populations have grown and incomes have risen
In the film Forrest Gump, one of the titular character’s most famous lines is, “My momma always said life was like a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re gonna get.”
Still less, he seems oblivious to the reality that much of the rest of the world has no interest in the bluff and bravado of poker. Trump turns to the size of the US market and the hyperactivity of its massive consumer market as top cards in his game of tariff poker without appearing to realise that these are diminishing assets.
It is true that the size and voraciousness of the US consumer market has made it a favourite export destination for consumer goods. Still today, the World Bank says the final consumption market in the United States amounts to US$18.6 trillion, far ahead of China at US$10.2 trillion and India at US$2.4 trillion.
The country’s consumer strength has been built on three factors: a large population of more than 340 million people, significant household wealth with per capita consumer spending of almost US$46,000 in 2024 and a long-standing willingness to spend rather than save. Consumer spending accounted for 68 per cent of US gross domestic product last year, compared to just 40 per cent in China.