As trade across the world is being frozen by uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s chaotic tariff policy, questions arise: when are the so-far silent voices in defence of rules-based multilateralism in trade going to awaken? Why are they not already shouting from the rooftops? And in the face of such deliberate and unprecedented abuse of global trade rules, what should those voices be demanding?
The first excuse must be that the chaos surrounding Trump’s 19 executive orders, four memorandums and three proclamations related to trade and tariffs since his January inauguration make for an impossible moving target. Whether in business or government, whatever the sector or country, there is a strong case for waiting for more stability or clarity over what is real, and what is choreographed theatre.
The second is that many of Trump’s trade-related executive orders are so flagrantly at odds with globally agreed rules that many retain optimism there will be at least a few adults in the room with the courage to tell the emperor he is wearing no clothes, or at least inappropriate ones.
Some believe the US legal system may yet bring the president down from the clouds. The Liberty Justice Centre has filed a case with the US Court of International Trade, a federal court with jurisdiction over most trade-related issues, challenging Trump’s power to usurp Congress’ constitutional authority to oversee trade issues. Similar lawsuits have been filed in Florida and California.
But the rest of the world cannot wait forever. Uncertainty alone is inflicting harm. Many of the 30,000 exhibitors at the Canton Fair in Guangzhou, China’s biggest trade expo, complain business has frozen. International buyers have shrivelled from 250,000 last autumn to 170,000 this month, as many hold back until the dust around the tariff war settles.
The 137th Canton Fair in Guangzhou, southern China’s Guangdong province, on April 15. Photo: AP
The world’s US$82 billion diamond trade has reportedly “ground to a halt”. The US is the world’s largest diamond market, and traders in Antwerp say trade has fallen to one-seventh of normal levels. Diamond exporters, from Botswana to Lesotho, are hard hit, along with Indian polishers.
