In 2025, Europe stands adrift in geopolitical limbo. As Washington sets the tempo and Beijing expands its reach, the
European Union clings to ambiguity. Brussels’ inability to formulate a coherent China policy has left it vulnerable precisely when autonomy matters most.
Donald Trump’s re-election as US president has shattered Europe’s diplomatic complacency, revealing the cost of years spent deferring to American leadership. Confronted with a combative White House,the EU now needs a functional relationship with China as a counterweight – yet finds itself without the framework to build one. Beijing, meanwhile, watches with
growing impatience, having expected the EU to meet this moment with determination.
Indeed, three months into Trump’s second term, China still waits for a coordinated EU response to American unilateralism. Instead, it encounters weakness, division and indecision – paralysis rooted not only in Brussels’ approach to Washington, but in its unresolved
posture toward Beijing.
This inertia can be traced back to the bloc’s 2019 strategic outlook. Rather than providing clarity, it institutionalised confusion by labelling China a “cooperation partner”, “negotiating partner”, “economic competitor” and “systemic rival”. What leaders presented as balance came off as an indecisiveness formalised into policy.
In the years that followed, Brussels outsourced its China policy to Washington. Multiple so-called European measures –
5G restrictions,
semiconductor export bans or tariffs on
electric vehicles – often dovetailed with US policy. Europe didn’t lead; the EU merely rebranded American initiatives as its own strategy, mistaking imitation for direction.
The result is the absence of a coherent approach towards one of Europe’s top trading partners. The evidence speaks loudly. Despite repeated threats of tougher measures, the EU recorded a trade deficit of €304.5 billion (US$345 billion) with China in 2024, a 4.6 per cent increase over the previous year, while European manufacturers lost market share in China. The gap between EU rhetoric and economic outcomes eroded Brussels’ credibility.
