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Nikola Mikovic

The trade war launched by US President Donald Trump against China will undoubtedly have a severe impact on the global economy. Russia hopes to benefit from the tensions between Washington and Beijing, but how realistic is that?
Over the years, the United States has been a major market for Chinese goods, with a massive portion of Chinese exports directed there. Meanwhile, China has been among the top purchasers of American products. Excluding its energy trade with China, Russia has played a relatively minor role in global trade flows.
But Trump’s decision to repeatedly impose enormous tariffs on Chinese goods could force China’s leadership to change its economic priorities and switch focus from the US to markets with fewer restrictions. Russia happens to be one of them.
In 2024, Russia was China’s fifth largest trading partner on a single-country basis. Now there are hopes that the country could become a bigger destination for Chinese exports. Indeed, Russia has already positioned itself as an important destination for Chinese cars. Trump’s tariffs could well help Moscow and Beijing increase their trade volume.
However, that doesn’t necessarily mean Russia will emerge as a major winner in the US-China trade war. Even Andrey Denisov, first deputy chair of the Federation Council Committee on Foreign Affairs, argues that economic tensions between Washington and Beijing are not beneficial to Moscow.


Russia’s problem lies in its very export structure. In 2023, energy reportedly accounted for over 75 per cent of its exports to China. In the wake of Trump’s tariffs, crude oil prices have dropped to their lowest levels since 2021, which means that Moscow – even if Beijing significantly increases its purchase of Russian oil – is unlikely to reap any rewards.
More importantly, if the US keeps imposing tariff barriers on Chinese goods, it could slow China’s economic growth, leading to declining demand for energy and raw materials – Russia’s main exports to China.
Despite that, the Russian embassy in Kenya recently posted a meme on X – formerly Twitter – suggesting that the Kremlin is insulated from the impact of the ongoing tariff wars. Pyotr Kamina, an expert at the Centre for Interaction and International Cooperation, suggested that Moscow could increase supplies of gas, oil and coal to Beijing “on more favourable terms”.
That, however, will be easier said than done. It is no secret that China is taking advantage of Russia’s “energy decoupling” from Europe to get better prices for Russian gas. In 2024, the average Russian gas price for China reached US$288 per 1,000 cubic meters, while this year European countries will have to pay US$340 per 1,000 cubic meters. Given that Russia’s energy giant Gazprom has long-term contracts with Beijing, Moscow is unlikely to unilaterally increase prices for China.

Thus, Russia’s potential to emerge as a beneficiary in the Sino-American trade war is rather limited. China is the largest market for US agricultural products. In response to Trump’s trade policy, Beijing imposed tariffs on American soybeans, wheat, corn, meat and dairy products, but Russian producers might have problems stepping up and meeting Chinese demand.
For instance, they are unlikely to be able to replace American soybeans, given that China imports about 100 million tonnes of soybeans annually, while Russia produces only around seven million tons per year.
Russia hopes to at least increase wheat supplies to China, but other wheat producers such as Ukraine and Kazakhstan may have similar ambitions. Therefore, Russia will almost certainly face strong competition for the Chinese wheat market.
Even if Moscow manages to export more agricultural products, it is unlikely to have a significant effect on the Russian economy, given that agriculture contributes just an estimated 3.35 per cent of the nation’s gross domestic product. That perhaps explains why Russian policymakers have other priorities beyond increased trade with China.

The Kremlin has openly stated that it wants to “work with Elon Musk on a Mars mission”. Moreover, Moscow has repeatedly signalled that it aims to normalise economic relations with the US. It even expects American companies to attend the St Petersburg Economic Forum in June, as many of them still operate in Russia.
Given that Trump did not impose reciprocal tariffs on Russia – ostensibly because the US is “not doing business, essentially” with Moscow as it wages war – the Kremlin hopes to improve economic cooperation with America. Does that mean that in the US-China trade war, Russia will side with Washington? Not really. Moscow is likely just seeking to use the situation Beijing is in to its advantage.
As Michael Corleone, portrayed by Al Pacino in The Godfather, would say, “It’s not personal … it’s strictly business.”


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How Russia could game US-China trade tensions

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Russia can benefit from the tariff war, but not necessarily by selling more energy and produce to China


Russia can benefit from the tariff war, but not necessarily by selling more energy and produce to China.


US-China trade war

US-China relations

US-China decoupling

US-Russia relations

Donald Trump

China trade

China tariffs

China-Russia relations

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


How Russia could game US-China trade tensions

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Russia can benefit from the tariff war, but not necessarily by selling more energy and produce to China

Russia can benefit from the tariff war, but not necessarily by selling more energy and produce to China