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Winston Mok

It is clear from Donald Trump’s second inauguration speech that his role model is neither Franklin D. Roosevelt nor Theodore Roosevelt but William McKinley. The current US president’s admiration for the 25th president is often associated with the high McKinley Tariff of 1890. This was passed when Benjamin Harrison was president and McKinley was still an Ohio congressman. But as president of a rapidly industrialising United States, McKinley actually moderated his stance on tariffs.
Trump’s fascination with McKinley is perhaps shaped by his other, sometimes overlooked, legacy. McKinley presided over the US’ largest territorial expansion outside North America. After the Spanish-American War of 1898, the US gained control of Puerto Rico, Guam and the Philippines, before annexing Hawaii in 1900.
Under the Treaty of Paris signed in 1898, the US paid Spain US$20 million for the Philippines. This could be the historic precedent for Trump’s proposal to buy Greenland from Denmark.
Leaving aside the merits, costs or feasibility of territorial expansion, making America greater in area may be the most coherent part of Trump’s vision. With regard to manufacturing, it is questionable whether it can be revived through tariffs. Unlike in East Asia, the election cycle of the US is not conducive to consistent, successful industrial policy.
But can Trump really go down in the annals of American history as the president who made America bigger? While once the US acquired territory from the declining Spanish empire, it now faces a formidable rising power in China. Is territorial expansion even wise in this day and age?
The US is the world’s largest economy, but only the fourth largest country in area – China is slightly larger. Acquiring Greenland would help the US displace Canada as the second largest country in the world. Annexing Canada would make the US the largest country in the world, ahead of Russia.


While Canada and Greenland would bring important resources and geopolitical advantages to the US, it is possible to achieve geoeconomic integration without political union. Yet, it cannot be discounted that bragging rights may be more important to Trump.
Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan sought land and resources through expansion. This proved misguided, especially in the light of how both West Germany and Japan recovered and developed into highly successful economies in the post-war decades.
In fact, East Asia, which was the most remarkable economic success story in the second half of the 20th century, has shown how less can be more. For example, given their limited natural resources, the four Asian Tigers focused on the most important resource in the industrial and technological eras: human capital. Today, these economies remain small in area, but the smallest among them is the most prosperous.
And as a whole, East Asian economies are still distinguished by their approach to human capital. Not only do their middle schoolers dominate the Programme for International Student Assessment (Pisa) rankings, the top 20 of the QS World University rankings also include five in East Asia.

Japan’s key challenge now is not needing more land, but more people. Nine million homes sit vacant. Parts of the country are deserted. While some manufacturing can be automated, imported labour is needed for a range of services.
Japan’s economic power is concentrated in a few areas. Greater Tokyo contributes 40 per cent of Japan’s economy, with Tokyo alone accounting for half of that. To zoom out a little, the Kanto and Kansai regions generate about 60 per cent of Japan’s economy, though they make up less than 20 per cent of Japanese territory.
Likewise, three dynamic coastal provinces (Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang), together with Shanghai, not only drive 30 per cent of China’s economy, but also outperform all of Russia.
The same pattern can be observed in the United States. The two coasts generate more than half of the US economy. The state of California represents less than 5 per cent of the US in area, but its economy is comparable to Japan’s, and larger than Canada’s.
There is no question that the US’ greatest resource is human capital. The reigning economic superpower is both a magnet for and a producer of world-class talent. US universities have long dominated the top ranks of global education. Attracting and cultivating the best brains have long been mutually reinforcing dynamics in the US, where the ambitious and capable have the drive to thrive under the rule of law.


Yet, the Trump administration has been attacking universities and big law firms. The United States may face a brain drain as researchers, doctoral students and other talented individuals leave in droves. Many people are having second thoughts about whether they still want to go to the US.
In an age of information and mobile talent, it is brains, not land, that define national competitiveness. The most competitive economies tend to be small. In the World Bank’s Human Capital Index, small economies such as Singapore and Hong Kong dominate the top 10. The two are also ranked among the world’s top five, in terms of economic competitiveness.
Denmark is among the top three globally, whether in national competitiveness or happiness. Instead of bullying Denmark into selling Greenland, the US has much to learn from Denmark. While territorial expansion may confer symbolic power, the reckless pursuit of it may divert attention from the true source of America’s greatness – its people.


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What the Asian Tigers can teach Trump

US President Donald Trump tries to reach toward a Maga hat during remarks on tariffs in the Rose Garden at the White House on April 2. Photo: Reuters 

The University of Hong Kong is 17th in the QS World University rankings, after the National University of Singapore in eighth place and Peking University in 14th. Photo: Dickson Lee

Trump’s tariffs offer China an opportunity riding a dangerous wind

Illustration: Craig Stephens

An employee checks welding wire at a factory which produces welding products for both domestic and foreign markets, in Taizhou in China’s eastern Jiangsu province on March 27. Photo: AFP

Trump’s plan for port fees on Chinese-made ships won’t save US shipyards

A cargo ship full of containers at Oakland port as trade tensions escalate over US tariffs, in California, US, on March 6. Photo: Reuters

Ships under construction in a Taicang shipyard in eastern China’s Jiangsu province on January 16. Photo: AFP

Major shipping group CMA CGM’s liquefied natural gas-powered container ship being built at the Shanghai Jiangnan-Changxing Shipyard in Shanghai. An estimated 53 per cent of its order book is or will be built in China. Photo: Undated handout

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Real threat posed by Trump’s tariffs worse than a global recession

US President Donald Trump holds a tariffs poster in the Rose Garden of the White House on April 2. Photo: AZUMA Press Wire/dpa

Greenland’s new prime minister says US will not get the island

The old city of Nuuk, Greenland. Photo: Reuters

Greenland’s Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen. Photo: Reuters

Opinion

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United States & Canada

The US president is interested in making America bigger. But human talent, not land, is the asset most worth investing in


The US president is interested in making America bigger. But human talent, not land, is the asset most worth investing in.


United States

Nordic nations

Canada

Russia

Hong Kong

Singapore

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Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


What the Asian Tigers can teach Trump

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}The US president is interested in making America bigger. But human talent, not land, is the asset most worth investing in

The US president is interested in making America bigger. But human talent, not land, is the asset most worth investing in