Opinion | Why major powers’ race for quantum supremacy inspires awe and fear

Earlier this month, a research team from China’s University of Science and Technology officially published findings on Zuchongzhi 3.0, a 105-qubit quantum computer that performed benchmark tasks one million times faster than Google’s latest published quantum computing results. Just months earlier, Google’s Willow processor had completed a problem in five minutes that would take today’s fastest supercomputers 10 septillion years.

These breakthroughs aren’t just engineering triumphs – they signal a fundamental shift in the global technological landscape. In a year the United Nations declared the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology, the timing could not be more telling. Despite numerous challenges, the development of full-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computers is closer than ever to being reality.

This leap forward holds immense promise for breakthroughs in fields such as climate modelling, materials science and pharmaceuticals. However, it also presents an urgent threat to the cryptographic systems that underpin global security, from encrypted military communications to financial transactions.

As former US secretary of state Antony Blinken said in 2024, “Quantum is potentially the most consequential computing breakthrough of the century. It could throw into uncharted waters nearly every aspect of security in our society, from banking to energy grids to government communications and operations. So, we have to build the standards now to safeguard against these risks.”

According to cybersecurity firm Cloudflare, only 2 per cent of secure connections on its service used quantum-resistant cryptography as of March 2024, leaving most connections vulnerable to quantum decryption. IBM’s 2024 Quantum-Safe Readiness Index scored global average preparedness at just 21 out of 100, with the highest score of any organisation reaching 44.