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Sergey Maidukov

In 1938, British prime minister Neville Chamberlain returned from Munich brandishing a signed document from Hitler and declaring a “peace for our time”. Less than a year later, World War II began.
US President Donald Trump, who has pledged to “end wars” and bring world peace, is at risk of echoing Chamberlain’s experience as he negotiates for peace with Russian President Vladimir Putin. More accurately, we are all at risk, because the consequences will affect everyone.
A forced Ukrainian capitulation, which Trump appears to favour, wouldn’t bring stability. It would breed chaos – mass migration, a surge in illegal weapons and seismic geopolitical aftershocks. The worst-case scenario? A Russian-fuelled civil war in Ukraine. I saw this first-hand in 2014 in Donbas and dread its spread across the country – or beyond.
The 1953 Korean armistice left the peninsula in a state of tension for decades. A forced settlement in Ukraine could lead to a similar outcome.
Putin might seem “more generous than he has to be” to Trump, but he’s still the one who kicked off the war and brutally keeps it going. In the 11 years since seizing Crimea and eastern Ukrainian territory, he has never backed down – not to sanctions, isolation or economic pressure. As US Senator Lindsey Graham warned: “If you give Putin Ukraine, he will not stop.”




If European leaders overlooked Churchill’s warning that an appeaser is one who “hopes that if he feeds the crocodile enough, the crocodile will eat him last”, Trump’s unpredictable actions might have pulled their heads out of the sand.
Nearly all, including Britain’s Keir Starmer, France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Olaf Scholz, now recognise Ukraine as essential to national security. When Trump labelled Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a “dictator”, they responded unequivocally: Ukraine is a democracy.
After what many saw as Ukraine’s humiliating reception in Washington, Britain embraced Zelensky. King Charles welcomed him at Sandringham House, underscoring the United Kingdom’s unwavering support. In Brussels, 26 of 27 European leaders (excepting Hungary’s Viktor Orban) signed a declaration affirming their commitment to Ukraine’s independence and urging increased defence spending across the European Union.
“From all the Ukrainians, from all our nation: great appreciation,” Zelensky said at the meeting. “We are very thankful that we are not alone.”
It looked as if Europe had supplanted America as Ukraine’s foremost military ally. But this perception proved short-lived. Back in Kyiv, Zelensky unexpectedly pledged to “make things right” with Trump and pursue negotiations – just as Washington announced a pause in military aid, citing Ukraine’s reluctance to come to the table.


Thus, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen’s vision of transforming Ukraine into a “steel porcupine” remains unfulfilled. Ukraine, after so much sacrifice, is weary of being anyone’s porcupine, buffer or outpost. This defiance signals troubling times ahead, not just for Ukraine but European countries.
I held little hope of a breakthrough as Ukrainian and American officials met in Saudi Arabia this week to try and halt Europe’s bloodiest war in generations. Zelensky’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak promised: “We are ready to do everything to achieve peace.” Zelensky, also in Jeddah for talks with the crown prince but absent from negotiations, insisted Ukraine’s approach would be “fully constructive”.
Yet hours before the talks, Ukraine launched its largest drone attack on Moscow. For Europe’s allies, such resolve to keep fighting is anything but unwelcome. Many thought the uplifting statements merely a facade. In a surprising turn, however, Ukraine has endorsed a 30-day ceasefire.
Bruno Kahl, head of German intelligence agency BND, has expressed fears that if the war ended before 2030, it would “enable the Russians to direct their energy where they actually want it, namely against Europe”.
A Russian invasion of the EU remains unlikely for now. But a Moscow-Kyiv truce could trigger a different crisis. Polish President Andrzej Duda worries the war’s conclusion may unleash a wave of organised crime across Europe, fuelled by weapons proliferation and returning Ukrainian soldiers struggling to reintegrate. His concerns are well-founded.

Ukraine’s 980,000-strong military includes battle-hardened veterans, physically scarred and psychologically wounded. They will return to a ruined economy burdened by a US$166 billion debt.
Illegal firearms are another pressing issue. The Small Arms Survey estimated 3.6 million unregistered weapons in Ukraine in 2017, a number certainly higher now. The Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime warns of Ukraine becoming an arms trafficking hub post-war.
A peace deal perceived as capitulation could also deepen national demoralisation. With troop levels dwindling and Russia advancing, public disillusionment may surge, weakening confidence in the leadership. Extremist factions could take root, pushing Ukraine towards internal unrest.
Putin knows this. What he fails to conquer by force, he may hope to unravel through internal decay.


If Ukraine spirals into chaos, Europe faces a crisis beyond its control. A new refugee wave could dwarf that of 2022. An unchecked spread of illegal arms, rise of criminal syndicates and growing instability could force the EU to shift its focus from turning Ukraine into a “steel porcupine” to putting up a new Iron Curtain.
Trump doesn’t seem aware of this reality. He is too eager to win peacemaker laurels and the Nobel Peace Prize to think about Ukraine’s future.
Is he cognisant that the fate of his nation and the global community hinges on this? If he is not, he is likely to discover this truth soon, and the lesson could prove painful.


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Ukraine war

Appeasing Russia and forcing Ukraine into a peace deal will breed chaos

Illustration: Craig Stephens

Poland’s President Andrzej Duda lays a wreath at the monument in memory of victims of the Nazi bombing on September 1, 1939, after the ceremony marking the 85th anniversary of the start of World War II in Wielun early on September 1, 2024. The Nazi bombing raid of Wielun in the early hours of September 1, 1939 is considered the first major act of World War II. Photo: AFP

EU and Britain must step up and lead a coalition for peace in Ukraine

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky head for a meeting during a European leaders’ summit on Ukraine, at Lancaster House, London, on March 2. Photo: dpa

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky attends an EU special summit to discuss Ukraine and European defence, in Brussels, Belgium, on March 6. Photo: Reuters

Why US allies in Europe and Asia are ‘de-risking’ from Trump

An artwork of US President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping at an exhibition called “Yalta 2.0” at a gallery in Livadia park in Crimea on February 8. The Trump administration has signalled a strategic abandonment of Ukraine and even the broader European community. Photo: Reuters

Ditched by the US, Europe must consider a ‘common home’ with Russia

Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer (centre) hosts the European leaders’ summit to discuss Ukraine, at Lancaster House, London, on March 2. Photo: AP

Russian President Vladimir Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron meet at the funeral service of former French president Jacques Chirac, at the Saint Sulpice de la Madeleine Church in Paris, on September 30, 2019. Photo: Kremlin/dpa

A man walks in front of an office with an electronic panel displaying currency exchange rates against the Russian rouble, in Moscow, on February 6. Photo: EPA-EFE

Opinion

World Opinion

News

World

Europe

Russia & Central Asia

Diplomacy

It would embolden Putin, make Ukraine a breeding ground for mass migration, a weapons surge, even civil war – affecting Europe and beyond


It would embolden Putin, make Ukraine a breeding ground for mass migration, a weapons surge, even civil war – affecting Europe and beyond.


Ukraine

Russia

European Union

Vladimir Putin

Donald Trump

War and conflict

Emmanuel Macron

Germany

US-Russia relations

Britain

France

Olaf Scholz

Poland

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Appeasing Russia and forcing Ukraine into a peace deal will breed chaos

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}It would embolden Putin, make Ukraine a breeding ground for mass migration, a weapons surge, even civil war – affecting Europe and beyond

It would embolden Putin, make Ukraine a breeding ground for mass migration, a weapons surge, even civil war – affecting Europe and beyond