The Kremlin once wanted Western detente. Will it seize the moment?

US President Donald Trump’s most striking foreign policy move has been reconciliation with Russia. This comes after years of relentless anti-Russia messaging. Western politicians and media called Russian President Vladimir Putin a dictator who wants to restore the Russian empire. They point to Russia’s war in Ukraine as evidence of Russian imperialist ambition even while scholars such as Jeffrey Sachs and John Mearsheimer acknowledge the West had a part in provoking the conflict. Russia has more to fear from the West. Europeans forget how Napoleon Bonaparte and Adolf Hitler invaded Russia causing enormous death and destruction. An estimated 27 million Soviet citizens – mostly from Russia – died in the monumental struggle against fascism. China and Russia suffered the most during the second world war. The Eastern Front was Germany’s primary theatre, tying down most of its soldiers and resources. Without the Red Army, the Allies would have lost the war. Europeans and Americans also fail to appreciate how much Russians admire them. Peter the Great modernised Russia by adopting European social and political systems. He travelled across Europe to learn from the West, later adopting sweeping reforms that touched many aspects of Russian life. Its culture followed European trends and in turn made contributions to Western civilisation. Russian aristocrats and intellectuals spoke French and many took European wives. With some Enlightenment ideals coming from France, the country’s language was seen as the language of philosophy, art and high culture. Catherine the Great, born into German royalty, promoted French as the language of the court. Leo Tolstoy’s War and Peace opens with French dialogue, mirroring elite customs. The poet Alexander Pushkin was educated in French and wrote in the language. The Russian Academy of Sciences, founded in 1724, initially relied on German scholars. Till today, the ability to speak English, French or German is held in high regard while Western pop culture is hugely popular. Upon becoming president in 2000, Vladimir Putin wanted to join Nato saying it was hard for him to visualise the transatlantic security alliance as an enemy. “Russia is a part of European culture. And I cannot imagine my own country in isolation from Europe and what we often call the civilised world,” Putin told British journalist David Frost. He would join “if and when Russia’s views are taken into account as those of an equal partner”. And yet, the West has often held Russia in contempt. Nazi ideology despised Slavs – the ancestors of many Russians – as subhumans and called for their enslavement if not extermination. The US and the UK saw the Soviet Union as a threat to be dealt with once Hitler was defeated. Long after the Cold War, anti-Russian sentiments live on. Sadly, Western policymakers remain deeply ignorant about Russia and its people. Many have never set foot in Russia and know little about its history, language and culture. Western hostility towards Russia is animated by a sense of cultural superiority but also America’s need for a perceived existential threat to justify big military budgets. In 2023, the US spent more on the military than the next nine countries combined. During his Senate confirmation hearing, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called China “the most potent and dangerous near-peer adversary this nation has ever faced”. Trump suggested past US policy was to blame for pushing Russia and China together. His administration wants to pull them apart. While Trump makes peace with Russia, he may not want Europe to follow suit. If Russia joined the European Union, they would together become a powerful bloc rivalling the US, and there would be no need for Nato. Washington may not welcome such an outcome. Economics and education play an important role in diplomacy. Russia has a powerful military but an economy less than half the size of Germany’s and reliant on natural resources such as oil and gas, which account for 40 to 50 per cent of government revenue. Apart from the weapons industry, its manufacturing sector is weak. As a result, it must import manufactured goods, which made up 80 per cent of total imports in 2020. Russia was the largest exporter of oil and gas to Europe. Until the invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s biggest trade partner was the European Union, accounting for over a third of the country’s trade. However, sanctions and the retreat of Western firms have opened up more opportunities for Chinese businesses in the energy, transport and other industries. China is now Russia’s most critical economic partner, with bilateral trade reaching US$240 billion in 2023 – up more than 26 per cent from the previous year. Just as Chinese language lessons have become popular in Russia, so too has interest in Russian grown, as seen by the tens of thousands of Chinese students on Russian campuses. Sharing common concerns, Putin and President Xi Jinping have taken Sino-Russian collaboration to new heights. As the US prepares for a potential war with China, the Kremlin must balance relations between both sides. Nato’s expansion destroyed Russia’s faith in the West, but as Trump reaches out to Putin, US-Russian relations may improve surprisingly quickly. People have short memories. Unlike Chinese ideological solidarity with the Global South, Russians feel closer to Europe. If welcomed as an equal partner, it may eventually join the West. However, it will be difficult for Russia to join the club and not share its views and practices. Western priorities may clash with those of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and Brics, both of which Russia is a member. Moscow must carefully consider its role in a changing world order.

The Kremlin once wanted Western detente. Will it seize the moment?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}As the US begins rapprochement, the Russians must balance their historical ties to the West with stronger new-found partnerships

As the US begins rapprochement, the Russians must balance their historical ties to the West with stronger new-found partnerships